Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

[dtrain44]

.NOW...
...REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
AT 245 PM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS QUICKLY
FORMING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN FREEDOM AND ELK CITY...WITH
ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LINE. THIS RECENT
DEVELOPMENT WAS IN RESPONSE TO STEADY EROSION OF THE CAP BY THE
APPROACH OF A STRENGTHENING DRYLINE THAT EXTENDED NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF STORMS...ALONG WITH THE EFFECTS PROVIDED BY A POWERFUL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS TO NEAR LAWTON.

THE COMBINATION OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000...AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
WILL ALLOW MANY OF THESE STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR
MORE LINES OF STORMS...WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
REMAINING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS THROUGH RUSH HOUR.
$$
JAMES

Wonder if I'll get any action down here in Duncan - looks like it might pop just east of here, but there are still a couple innings left in this game.....

[CrazyC83]

I don't think Shreveport is streaming but I could be wrong...

Update: Heard that KSLA is streaming from Shreveport

[f5]

Jim Cantore and Dr.Greg Forbes said last night that this second line will be the punch that causes all the severe weather beacuse out ahead of those storms the sunshine is out making the atmosphere conducive for explosive thunderstorm development

[RL3AO]

Thats for that link Crazy. The TV stations here never show the velocities....just reflectivity and it annoys me.

[CrazyC83]

Storms are rotating from about Medicine Lodge, KS to Lawton, OK

An intense and rotating storm is approaching the OKC metro within the next 20-40 minutes...

[dtrain44]

Earlier this spring, we had a late night storm that produced a weak tornado in the OKC metro area. It was about 3 AM and I was awake on duty at the athletic dorms. The TV station I was watching had their third string met on screen talking about a marginal wind and hail threat. They've got the velocity radar view on and he's talking about the wind velocities on the north side of the metro. While he's yammering on about that, the obvious area of very tight rotation is just jumping out and he's not noticing. It turned out to be only a very brief F0/F1 type touchdown, but it was hilarious to watch him talk about other stuff for like five minutes before he's like "whoa, what's this?"

That wouldn't have shown up at all in the reflectivity view - it just would have shown a blob of convection and wouldn't have indicated the dangerous portion of the storm......

[HarlequinBoy]

I don't think Shreveport is streaming but I could be wrong...

Update: Heard that KSLA is streaming from Shreveport

Thanks! They were streaming.. but then the warning was replaced with a SVR.

[f5]

Dr Forbes just said the line in western oklahoma will be the line that produces the rotation ,damaging winds to knock down trees ,power line and maybe even rip off some roofs with those storms that take on that bird shape and even hail up to tennis ball size.

[dtrain44]

Crazy, where are you seeing storms down to Lawton? I'm not seeing any convection south of Chickasha on Frederick, OK radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[CrazyC83]

Crazy, where are you seeing storms down to Lawton? I'm not seeing any convection south of Chickasha on Frederick, OK radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Just NE of Lawton but it has been racing away along I-44.

[dtrain44]

Wow, that thing must be humming. I thought it was OK to look away from the radar and do some work for fifteen minutes. Not in this state.....

[CrazyC83]

Wow, that thing must be humming. I thought it was OK to look away from the radar and do some work for fifteen minutes. Not in this state.....

At least 50-55 mph it appears...

[RL3AO]

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF GARDEN CITY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HOLDEN AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHILHOWEE BY 350 PM CDT.
WARRENSBURG BY 410 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF CENTERVIEW IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.

[dtrain44]

It's saying 45 mph on the advisory......it looked even faster than that on the radar loop. NWS Norman notes mid level rotation and the possibility of further strengthening with this cell.

I think it might be time for Warr Acres/Edmond/Yukon/northern OKC to wake up on this one - it could become a problem very quickly.

[CrazyC83]

It's saying 45 mph on the advisory......it looked even faster than that on the radar loop. NWS Norman notes mid level rotation and the possibility of further strengthening with this cell.

I think it might be time for Warr Acres/Edmond/Yukon/northern OKC to wake up on this one - it could become a problem very quickly.

I believe NWS Norman is fairly conservative when it comes to issuing tornado warnings though...

[HarlequinBoy]

SVR TSTORM WARN for Tulsa now.


Looks like they have a busy night ahead.

[dtrain44]

I believe NWS Norman is fairly conservative when it comes to issuing tornado warnings though...

I'd generally agree with that. A lot of storms show some rotation and NWS Norman is pretty good about distinguishing the problems from the red herrings. That disclaimer in the advisory is probably more directed at the TV/radio crowd to get them to start making viewers and listeners aware. There's nothing I can see to warrant a tornado warning right now, but it is moving quickly enough that it will be in some pretty populated areas within 1/2 hour or less. So, if it does spin something up, it might come quickly. I wish I could see a better velocity radar view.....anyone know of any good ones besides the standard NWS link?

[dtrain44]

And by within a half hour I mean right now - this storm is flat out hauling.

[RL3AO]

That cell in the OKC metro area is rotating I think.

[dtrain44]

With no detail whatsoever on this radar view, it looks like some decent rotation starting on the south side of that cell.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Make sure to switch to the velocity view on that link....