Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Is over in San Juan.The rainfall totals in the NWS office was 2.46 inches.

that's a nice little amount of rain. any serious flooding?

No serious flooding here.Now to watch Bill.I dont watch the models but what Bill is doing trackwise.

Excellent reasoning my friend-15N 50W- you understand Luis .

[caribepr]

FireBird
no matter what the models say, I never rest easy until these storms are actually West f us.
Everyone on the island has let their guard down after Ana didn't bother us and since the models say Bill is going North.
I have not let my guard down yet... still watching that cane...

Barbara

Ditto (except for the Ana part!) No one I know in boats is leaving the mangroves until Bill is west of us. Doesn't matter what the prediction is...as Ana showed us, very gently, thankfully!

[Gustywind]

FireBird
no matter what the models say, I never rest easy until these storms are actually West f us.
Everyone on the island has let their guard down after Ana didn't bother us and since the models say Bill is going North.
I have not let my guard down yet... still watching that cane...

Barbara

Ditto (except for the Ana part!) No one I know in boats is leaving the mangroves until Bill is west of us. Doesn't matter what the prediction is...as !

Yes absolutely: "Ana showed us, very gently, thankfully"and it's an euphemisma one word : watch watch watch carefully as BIG BILL is always there!
Looks like an eye is forming...

[Gustywind]

Huge system for sure, hey Bill we have fish games for you



Robust cane...muscled appareance maybe a healthy bodybuilder that love fishing


Big baby should continue to move far away from the islands, but we will wait a bit for sure!!!

Latest 5PM from Hurricane Bill

[msbee]

OMG, Master Bill is HUGE!

[expat2carib]

Message: Hurricane Bill, August 17, 2009, 1400 hrs EDT


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ADVISORY # 1

The Event: At 5:00pm AST, the center of Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 14.6 north, longitude 46.7 west or about 1,570 km (975 miles) east of the Lesser Antilles.

Hurricane Bill was upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane (Saffir Simpson scale) on Monday August 17, 2009. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Bill could become a major hurricane by Wednesday August 19, 2009.

Bill is moving toward the west-northwest at about 26 kilometres or 16 miles an hour with sustained winds of close to 150 kilometres or 90 miles per hour. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours and should bring the center near the northeast coast of the Leeward Islands by Thursday August 20, 2009.

The Situation: In response to the threat posed by Hurricane Bill to the Lesser Antilles, the local Meteorological Offices have issued Hurricane Advisories for the islands of Antigua & Barbuda, the Virgin Islands (UK) and Anguilla.

National Response:
Virgin Islands (UK)
The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) in the Virgin Islands (UK) has issued a Hurricane Advisory and placed its national response system on stand-by in preparation for Hurricane Bill. The island was on a Tropical Storm watch this morning in anticipation of Tropical Depression Ana but has since stood-down and reported no damage.

Anguilla
The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) in Anguilla has issued regular public advisories via the news media to alert persons of the approaching hurricane and is completing readiness actions.

Antigua & Barbuda
The National Office of Disaster Services (NODS) issued a Press Release this morning to warn the public on the on-coming threat of Hurricane Bill. The Minister of Health, the National Disaster Coordinator, the Director of the National Red Cross and the Chief Meteorological Officer were guests on the Television Station this morning to update the public and encourage increased preparatory actions. The national disaster response mechanism is placed on standby.

Regional Response: CDERA has been monitoring Hurricane Bill as it moves towards the region. The Coordinating Unit has established contact with the National Disaster Offices in the threatened area and will continue to provide updated information on the islands’ preparedness actions.

The Coordinating Unit has finalized arrangements for accessing emergency response personnel who will lead specialized teams (Emergency Operations Centre and Assessment Teams), if necessary.

The Coordinating Unit will continue to monitor the situation with Hurricane Bill as it moves towards Caribbean and provide advisories as necessary.

Next Advisory: 1400 hrs Tuesday August 18, 2009

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Contact Details: The CDERA CU 24hr contact number is 246 425 0386

[caribsue]

Thanks for posting that expat2carib, very informative.... I keeping my fingers crossed as I am sure you are in Dominica

[caribepr]

I love it when there is a warning for the VI's and BVI's and not PR...like the time I lived on St. Thomas and the warning was kept up for the BVI's and not for us. It's so close, I could have signaled to someone on Jost with a strong flashlight!

Regardless, friends are acting like Mr. Bill is coming near here..prep for the worst hope for the best.

[KealaSxm]

Very interesting news from the British Islands - does this mean we should be concerned ???

[expat2carib]

Very interesting news from the British Islands - does this mean we should be concerned ???

This is a hurricane advisory and not a hurricane watch or warning yet. It means be prepared for the worse....... it might become a watch or warning.

This is from cdera.org the coordinating disaster agency where a lot of the island are members of.

St. Maarten is not a member, neither are the US islands. That's why they are not named.

The advisory is as well for Anguilla. St. Maarten is only a stone throw away from Anguilla..... so....... Be prepared...... but not alarmed yet.

[KealaSxm]

Thanks Expat - it's great that the disaster agency is on alert. We are all hoping the models are correct and that Bill does miss us all.

[Gustywind]

Message: Hurricane Bill, August 17, 2009, 1400 hrs EDT


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ADVISORY # 1

The Event: At 5:00pm AST, the center of Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 14.6 north, longitude 46.7 west or about 1,570 km (975 miles) east of the Lesser Antilles.

Hurricane Bill was upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane (Saffir Simpson scale) on Monday August 17, 2009. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Bill could become a major hurricane by Wednesday August 19, 2009.

Bill is moving toward the west-northwest at about 26 kilometres or 16 miles an hour with sustained winds of close to 150 kilometres or 90 miles per hour. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours and should bring the center near the northeast coast of the Leeward Islands by Thursday August 20, 2009.

The Situation: In response to the threat posed by Hurricane Bill to the Lesser Antilles, National Response:
Virgin Islands (UK)
The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) in the Virgin Islands (UK) has issued a Hurricane Advisory and placed its national response system on stand-by in preparation for Hurricane Bill. The island was on a Tropical Storm watch this morning in anticipation of Tropical Depression Ana but has since stood-down and reported no damage.

Anguilla
The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) in Anguilla has issued regular public advisories via the news media to alert persons of the approaching hurricane and is completing readiness actions.

Antigua & Barbuda
The National Office of Disaster Services (NODS) issued a Press Release this morning to warn the public on the on-coming threat of Hurricane Bill. The Minister of Health, the National Disaster Coordinator, the Director of the National Red Cross and the Chief Meteorological Officer were guests on the Television Station this morning to update the public and encourage increased preparatory actions. The national disaster response mechanism is placed on standby.

Regional Response: CDERA has been monitoring Hurricane Bill as it moves towards the region. The Coordinating Unit has established contact with the National Disaster Offices in the threatened area and will continue to provide updated information on the islands’ preparedness actions.

The Coordinating Unit has finalized arrangements for accessing emergency response personnel who will lead specialized teams (Emergency Operations Centre and Assessment Teams), if necessary.

The Coordinating Unit will continue to monitor the situation with Hurricane Bill as it moves towards Caribbean and provide advisories as necessary.

Next Advisory: 1400 hrs Tuesday August 18, 2009

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Contact Details: The CDERA CU 24hr contact number is 246 425 0386

Very good job, excellent post meaning pretty informative my friend . It's a very good thing for the local Meteorological Offices to have issued Hurricane Advisories for the islands of Antigua & Barbuda, the Virgin Islands (UK) and Anguilla! I appreciate sincerely.

[knotimpaired]

FireBird
no matter what the models say, I never rest easy until these storms are actually West f us.
Everyone on the island has let their guard down after Ana didn't bother us and since the models say Bill is going North.
I have not let my guard down yet... still watching that cane...

Barbara

I agree with you both. (except for the Ana part!) No one I know in boats is leaving the mangroves until Bill is west of us. Doesn't matter what the prediction is...as Ana showed us, very gently, thankfully!

Ditto here. Everything that was put away for Ana, is basically staying that way until the season appears to be over.

Sad to say residents here in Vieques, (other than a few ex-pats) did absolutely nothing to prepare there yards, houses, etc. But you have to understand, a lot of people here love FEMA. During Jeanne quite a few pulled furniture out of their houses to get water damage and low and behold when the FEMA checks came in there were quite a few new cars on the island.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180916
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE WEST OF JAMAICA WILL
MOVE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EXTENDING
WEST AND NORTHEAST FROM PUERTO RICO. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND FORM A HIGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAIT MONDAY FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES SO LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA INDUCING NORTHERLY FLOW.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT WHEN HURRICANE BILL MOVES
UP INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK. IT WILL REFORM
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON MONDAY THAT EXTENDS WEST TO FLORIDA.
THEN MID WEEK NEXT WEEK SEVERAL TROUGHS FORM IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...ONE
NEAR 55 WEST AND ONE NEAR 30 WEST. THESE WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK...AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HURRICANE BILL WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESUME. A TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN THE CURRENT SOLUTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER LAND OR SEA AT
THE MOMENT. ACCORDING TO THE SOUNDING AT 00Z...HOWEVER...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE LOCAL SURFACE HEATING
BEGINS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AS HURRICANE BILL APPROACHES AND FLOW AROUND
HIM BENDS TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. CURRENTLY
HURRICANE BILL`S TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA TO BE OF MUCH INFLUENCE SAVE FOR SOME WEAK LONG PERIOD SWELL
AND A DEFINITE DISRUPTION TO THE TRADE WIND FLOW THAT WILL LEAVE
VERY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY SUCH THAT LAND AND SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCES DOMINATE. SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE IN
THE AREA EXPECT INTERIOR SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ISLAND THEN.
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA AND WEAK TROUGHS
IN THE LOWER LEVELS BRING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS NOT FORECAST UNTIL THE
FOLLOWING THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM PLACING A
STRONG LOW IN THIS WAVE...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL
OCCUR.

[cycloneye]

This is the header of the 5 am advisory and they added a sentence that is very important to our Leeward friends.

WTNT33 KNHC 180834
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

...BILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.

[Gustywind]

Hi my carib friends . Monitoring closely Bill in the Leewards... as an yellow alert has been requiered yesterday afternonn in Guadeloupe and the Norhern Leewards for a rough sea, swell.

[Gustywind]

BIG BABY call it BILL



000
WTNT33 KNHC 180834
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

...BILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES...
1305 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.[/size]
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

[size=150]...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.5N 49.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


000
WTNT23 KNHC 180833
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0900 UTC TUE AUG 18 2009

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 49.7W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 75SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 225SE 120SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 49.7W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 49.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 51.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 55SE 45SW 65NW.
34 KT...145NE 105SE 75SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.4N 54.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 65NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.9N 56.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 145NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 105SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 105SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 29.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 35.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 49.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


000
WTNT43 KNHC 180837
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

TRMM DATA FROM 0223 UTC AND RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
BILL IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WITH THE COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS CURRENTLY IN THE OUTER CONVECTIVE RING. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT FROM SAB AND 77 KT FROM TAFB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 85 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS DUE TO THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15. BILL IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. ONE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...MOVING SOUTHWARD. A SECOND MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD. FINALLY...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BETWEEN
72-120 HR. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BILL SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHS...BUT THERE IS SOME NOTABLE
SPREAD IN WHERE AND WHEN. THE ECMWF...GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...
AND THE BAM MODELS TURN BILL NORTHWARD BETWEEN 62W-65W IN RESPONSE
TO THE FIRST TWO TROUGHS. THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
CALLS FOR THE NORTHWARD TURN BETWEEN 65W-70W...DUE TO LESS RESPONSE
TO THE FIRST TWO TROUGHS AND THE EVENTUAL EFFECT OF THE THIRD
TROUGH. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WAS IN THE WESTERN CLUSTER...
AND THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO JUMP THE FORECAST TO THE EASTERN
CLUSTER. THEREFORE...THE NEW TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
WESTERN GUIDANCE CLUSTER AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BILL IS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
HURRICANE SHOULD INTENSIFY AFTER THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS
OVER...WITH ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTING IT TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF
110 KT IN 48 HR. AFTER 48 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
BILL TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING
DURING THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.5N 49.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 16.2N 51.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 17.4N 54.2W 100 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 18.9N 56.7W 105 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 20.5N 59.0W 110 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 24.0N 63.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 67.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 35.5N 68.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 180927
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS...WHILE OVER LAND AREAS REMAINED DRY. WINDS
WERE MAINLY FROM EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS DRY AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO ENTER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO BLOW FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.

AT 5 AM THIS MORNING...HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR 1000 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF ST.CROIX. BILL WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 17
MPH. BILL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WEST NORTHWEST PROJECTED
TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS OF 5 AM AST...BILL MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD
KEEP MONITORING BILL FUTURE TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

$$

[Gustywind]

Hi my carib friends . Monitoring closely Bill in the Leewards... as an yellow alert has been requiered yesterday afternonn in Guadeloupe and the Norhern Leewards for a rough sea, swell.

Should i add previously Martinica (yellow alert) too for a risk of rough sea...

[Gustywind]

Monitoring closely BILL... Another wave on Africa will emerge during the next 24-48H.


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 18/0900 UTC IS NEAR 15.5N
49.7W...OR ABOUT 810 MILES...1305 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AT 85 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 105 KT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25
MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
TCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A DRY SLOT W OF THE WAVE AXIS AT
12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N
BETWEEN 30W-34W... AND FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN 31W-33W.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF ANA...IS ALONG 73W S OF 20N
MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
THREATEN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM
21N-24N BETWEEN 72W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 71W-75W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N25W 11N33W 10N37W
14N45W 13N51W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
13W-20W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 18W-20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 25W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS
ALONG 30N. A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL REMAINS
HOWEVER OVER THE GULF N OF 25N. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 93W-96W. SURFACE WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY FROM
THE SE AT 10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N88W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N101W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE BLANKETS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS TO MOVE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER BELIZE AND
GUATEMALA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 88W-91W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER W VENEZUELA...N
COLOMBIA...AND PANAMA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 70W-83W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT...
CONVECTION TO MOVE OVER CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
31N74W 27N81W 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 27N67W
25N71W 22N73W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 150 NM N
OF THE TROUGH. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N74W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CUBA IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE S
BAHAMAS...ENHANCING SHOWERS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 70W-75W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 20N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT BILL TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ANA MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA.

$$
FORMOSA