Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Frank2]

This is a portion of the AFD from the NWS at Newport/Morehead City NC:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1020 AM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW PRES WILL APPROACH FROM THE SE SAT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT....

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE LOW PRES SYSTEM TO THE
SE AND HOW IT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL VERY DISORGANIZED AS SHEARING CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. MODELS STILL
OFFER A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS BUT GENERALLY HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLOWER AND WEAKER FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE MODELS ARE
AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE LOW TO THE NW BEGINNING TODAY BUT IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE EXACT IMPACT ON THE CWA UNTIL WE SEE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL TRACK CONTINUES TO RANGE FROM AROUND
MYRTLE BEACH TO CAPE HATTERAS TO REMAINING OFF THE COAST WITH THE
GREATEST IMPACTS TO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY....

&&

[UpTheCreek]

Hmmm. Lots of JB and Accuweather bashing last night. JB in his post last night abandoned the Euro because it weakened 99l. He stood his ground last night and still declared a sub 970 hurricane at landfall, he stated that the conditions were there. He was not changing his predictions.

A bit stubborn as always, but he believes in what he says right or wrong and does admit when he's wrong.

The bashers are always ready to discredit him a the drop of a hat. Yet very slow to give credit if at all.

Me, I just think it's good to see someone stand thier ground in this day and age.

I'm thinking there's gonna be alot of crow served soon, maybe JB should serve it.

Where was JB treated with disrespect? Accuweather was, and deservedly so, but show me where JB was knocked down last night?

[OuterBanker]

His 6am stated that conditions were quickly improving. He's also thinking of a landfall with every millibar of his forecast (sub 970) and a NC landfall. Also concerned about the Gulf flareup.

[Chacor]

188
ABNT20 KNHC 071515
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING
WITHIN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[tallywx]

This is a portion of the AFD from the NWS at Newport/Morehead City NC:


.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE LOW PRES SYSTEM TO THE
SE AND HOW IT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL VERY DISORGANIZED AS SHEARING CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. MODELS STILL
OFFER A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS BUT GENERALLY HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLOWER AND WEAKER FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE MODELS ARE
AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE LOW TO THE NW BEGINNING TODAY BUT IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE EXACT IMPACT ON THE CWA UNTIL WE SEE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL TRACK CONTINUES TO RANGE FROM AROUND
MYRTLE BEACH TO CAPE HATTERAS TO REMAINING OFF THE COAST WITH THE
GREATEST IMPACTS TO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY....

&&

That NWS discussion text is an EXACT CARBON COPY of the 434 a.m. AFD. Needless to say, this system has drastically changed in organizational structure since that time. I'd disregard this discussion in light of that.

[Chacor]

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER TODAY.

That's the key part of the TWO: now saying straight to a TS is possible.

[nequad]

Sadly...the days of insightful AFD's have long since passed.

[SCHawkFan]

Hmmm. Lots of JB and Accuweather bashing last night. JB in his post last night abandoned the Euro because it weakened 99l. He stood his ground last night and still declared a sub 970 hurricane at landfall, he stated that the conditions were there. He was not changing his predictions.

A bit stubborn as always, but he believes in what he says right or wrong and does admit when he's wrong.

The bashers are always ready to discredit him a the drop of a hat. Yet very slow to give credit if at all.

Me, I just think it's good to see someone stand thier ground in this day and age.

I'm thinking there's gonna be alot of crow served soon, maybe JB should serve it.

Sub-970? Suddenly, I am paying attention.

[miamicanes177]

Hmmm. Lots of JB and Accuweather bashing last night. JB in his post last night abandoned the Euro because it weakened 99l. He stood his ground last night and still declared a sub 970 hurricane at landfall, he stated that the conditions were there. He was not changing his predictions.

A bit stubborn as always, but he believes in what he says right or wrong and does admit when he's wrong.

The bashers are always ready to discredit him a the drop of a hat. Yet very slow to give credit if at all.

Me, I just think it's good to see someone stand thier ground in this day and age.

I'm thinking there's gonna be alot of crow served soon, maybe JB should serve it.

I agree. Accuweather is nailing this thing. They deserve high praise if their forecast verifies. Some professionals backed off their original idea of development based on what happened yesterday. Accuweather gave a forecast, not a nowcast. They had the foresight to see improving conditions when others were simply saying it was dieing. Major props to the Accuweather Meteorologist on 99L...or as they called it, "soon to be Gabrielle".

[Sanibel]

Presently stuck with a non-functioning dial-up link, so I can't see loops. The stills that take over a minute to load, or don't load at all, show this thing developing.

By the way, Bastardi said to watch for this thing long before it happened.

[seahawkjd]

So where is the center of circulation now in relation to the thunderstorms?

[Frank2]

True, tallywx - well, hopefully it'll bring some needed rain to parts of the Mid-Atlantic, without developing too much...

The AFD's are sometimes a copy of the previous version, true, and especially if conditions are not changing rapidly, but, they are often written an hour or so before the time indicated in the product, so, earlier it did seem that the system was still weak and disorganized - true that it's looking more organized now...

Ugh - pesty little system, for sure, but, all happens for the best...

[stormcrow]

Notice to a fellow crows "Condition RED" go into hiding now!

[CrazyC83]

Maintaining a closed circulation despite little convection sure helped this thing...

[Frank2]

Nah - everyone is right or wrong at some time, so, no problem there - as it turns out, the system developed much slower than anyone expected, but, now that it is developing, it still remains to be seen as to track and strength...

Still, the loop does seem to show that this will possibly move west, then northwest, per the earlier AFD...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Frank

[Sanibel]

Don't underestimate something like this once it stacks. It has that pre - mean compact look.

[miamicanes177]

Nah - everyone is right or wrong at some time, so, no problem there - as it turns out, the system developed much slower than anyone expected, but, now that it is developing, it still remains to be seen as to track and strength...

Frank

Umm...Derek Ortt and Accuweather? Derek Ortt said nothing will happen until thursday night/friday at the earliest. Accuweather said this as well. Although in truth Derek was questioning himself yesterday because it looked so bad, at least he and Accuweather weren't expecting anything until today.

[Zardoz]

Notice to fellow crows: "Condition RED" go into hiding now!

Roger. Will comply.

[tolakram]

Nah - everyone is right or wrong at some time, so, no problem there - as it turns out, the system developed much slower than anyone expected, but, now that it is developing, it still remains to be seen as to track and strength...

Still, the loop does seem to show that this will possibly move west, then northwest, per the earlier AFD...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Frank

Looks like it's going to have a lot more moisture to work with real soon.

[SouthFLTropics]

Kudo's to Derek...Derek is like the old EF Hutton commercials. When Derek speaks, people should listen. I was stunned when he began to question himself yesterday but it appears now that questioning may have been premature.

SouthFLTropics