Florida Weather

[Hurricaneman]

Only about 4 inches of rain in Miami since the start of August, which isn't too far from the normal value according to the NWS but it really has seemed bone dry in coastal Miami. Lots of clouds building all month but nothing comes of it. Feels like we've had a fraction of the normal afternoon thunderstorms since Isaias passed.

This August is unlike any other I have seen in my many years here.
AlI can say is that mother nature better make up for this eventually.

This is one of those years where be careful what you wish for, could come from a major hurricane looking at steering patterns

[psyclone]

Latter period (day 6&7) have been tilting rather wet over the eastern gulf from the wpc. Let's see if we can reel in some good rainfall. We generally get some heavy rain episodes in onshore flow events in the wet season. such patterns can really deliver the goods on the west coast and we have had none of these so far..which has contributed to our rather skimpy rainy season..

[AdamFirst]

Taking a break from the Laura marathon, just like to comment that the atmosphere has been absolutely juiced the last few days. Heavy tropical downpours with tons of lightning in a lot of these storms.

[Patrick99]

How do we (SFL and the Keys) keep on missing tropical cyclones? Though I obviously have no evidence, I'm starting to think that the weather patterns that used to make SFL tropical systems a fairly regular occurrence from the 1800s to around the late 1960s, are just more rare now than they used to be thanks to climate change and other subtle changes.

At any rate, I stand by my feeling that if you see SFL near the end of a 5-day cone from the NHC, you can almost bank on that storm not hitting us.

[gatorcane]

How do we (SFL and the Keys) keep on missing tropical cyclones? Though I obviously have no evidence, I'm starting to think that the weather patterns that used to make SFL tropical systems a fairly regular occurrence from the 1800s to around the late 1960s, are just more rare now than they used to be thanks to climate change and other subtle changes.

At any rate, I stand by my feeling that if you see SFL near the end of a 5-day cone from the NHC, you can almost bank on that storm not hitting us.

We may have problems late season come October. That is the month that has me most concerned. Something from the south (Western or NW Carib) like Wilma. Somehow we have managed to avoid that type of strike again for almost 15 years. Also September can feature some long trackers that could hit from the east looking at SE Florida hurricane history but they do seem a lot more rare than they were in the 20s through 40s.

[LarryWx]

How do we (SFL and the Keys) keep on missing tropical cyclones? Though I obviously have no evidence, I'm starting to think that the weather patterns that used to make SFL tropical systems a fairly regular occurrence from the 1800s to around the late 1960s, are just more rare now than they used to be thanks to climate change and other subtle changes.

At any rate, I stand by my feeling that if you see SFL near the end of a 5-day cone from the NHC, you can almost bank on that storm not hitting us.

You kind of sound frustrated based on your wording of your first sentence and your last one. If that is the case, your frustration may end in about 12-14 days IF the last 2 EPS runs have the right idea. I'm not hoping that but just telling you what I see. If you're not frustrated, I apologize for my misinterpretation. I do know that a good number of tropical enthusiasts want to be hit. Some even chase. Not me as I evacuate for anything strong.

[TheStormExpert]

How do we (SFL and the Keys) keep on missing tropical cyclones? Though I obviously have no evidence, I'm starting to think that the weather patterns that used to make SFL tropical systems a fairly regular occurrence from the 1800s to around the late 1960s, are just more rare now than they used to be thanks to climate change and other subtle changes.

At any rate, I stand by my feeling that if you see SFL near the end of a 5-day cone from the NHC, you can almost bank on that storm not hitting us.

It’s called luck and hurricane repellent, lots of it!

[TheStormExpert]

How do we (SFL and the Keys) keep on missing tropical cyclones? Though I obviously have no evidence, I'm starting to think that the weather patterns that used to make SFL tropical systems a fairly regular occurrence from the 1800s to around the late 1960s, are just more rare now than they used to be thanks to climate change and other subtle changes.

At any rate, I stand by my feeling that if you see SFL near the end of a 5-day cone from the NHC, you can almost bank on that storm not hitting us.

We may have problems late season come October. That is the month that has me most concerned. Something from the south (Western or NW Carib) like Wilma. Somehow we have managed to avoid that type of strike again for almost 15 years. Also September can feature some long trackers that could hit from the east looking at SE Florida hurricane history but they do seem a lot more rare than they were in the 20s through 40s.

2004 was like an anomaly.

[AxaltaRacing24]

How do we (SFL and the Keys) keep on missing tropical cyclones? Though I obviously have no evidence, I'm starting to think that the weather patterns that used to make SFL tropical systems a fairly regular occurrence from the 1800s to around the late 1960s, are just more rare now than they used to be thanks to climate change and other subtle changes.

At any rate, I stand by my feeling that if you see SFL near the end of a 5-day cone from the NHC, you can almost bank on that storm not hitting us.

We may have problems late season come October. That is the month that has me most concerned. Something from the south (Western or NW Carib) like Wilma. Somehow we have managed to avoid that type of strike again for almost 15 years. Also September can feature some long trackers that could hit from the east looking at SE Florida hurricane history but they do seem a lot more rare than they were in the 20s through 40s.

2004 was like an anomaly.

we've just had insanely lucky timing over the past 15 years. for example, if dorian arrives a day or 2 earlier in the same location, streak is over. let's hope that luck continues

[TheStormExpert]

We may have problems late season come October. That is the month that has me most concerned. Something from the south (Western or NW Carib) like Wilma. Somehow we have managed to avoid that type of strike again for almost 15 years. Also September can feature some long trackers that could hit from the east looking at SE Florida hurricane history but they do seem a lot more rare than they were in the 20s through 40s.

2004 was like an anomaly.

we've just had insanely lucky timing over the past 15 years. for example, if dorian arrives a day or 2 earlier in the same location, streak is over. let's hope that luck continues

Exactly! Timing worked out for us especially in Dorians case. Or else not only The Bahamas would’ve been devastated.

[gatorcane]

Regarding Irma, I am still amazed how the track kept shifting west even under 48 hours which somehow allowed SE Florida to escape the core of what could have been the costliest hurricane to ever hit not only Florida but for this country. Laura behaved as expected under 72 hours in the NHC three day track. Most of the time the NHC three day track is pretty rock solid.

Irma 5 day NHC track archive:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/I ... e_and_wind

[toad strangler]

Coming up on the 15th anniversary of Hurricane Wilma in just under two months. Huge eye with a huge wind field that didn't weaken much all the way through the FL peninsula. The last major to hit the PENINSULA that featured a very cohesive front and back. Irma after the Keys and extreme SW FL was a half-a-cane.

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1300197280792936456

[gatorcane]

Potentially rainy Labor Day weekend ahead for South Florida particularly Sunday through next week

By Sunday night/Monday morning, the TUTT low becomes reoriented as
it progresses just west of Cuba. A 250 hPa jet streak on the
eastern periphery of this upper low becomes oriented such that a
broad area of upper diffluence (inferred upper divergence) is
draped over a greater portion of South Florida. Furthermore,
several vorticity maxima spawn on the eastern portion of this
upper low and progress northerly towards South Florida. A low-
level response in the wind field manifests, as plentiful moisture
advects over the region in association with a moist tropical
airmass. This could be a concerning synoptic setup for South
Florida, as widespread bouts of showers and storms may develop as
a result of this pattern. Efficient rain processes associated with
a high theta-e tropospheric column may lead to impressive
tropical rain rates. The period of concern may start as early as
Tuesday and extend through the week. Given that this potential
event is still further out in the forecast period, be sure to
monitor and pursue the latest forecast information, as the timing
and impacts of this event are likely to change with an evolving
pattern.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[gatorcane]

Definitely noticed a change this evening with clouds finally forming and even got some rain. The upper levels of the atmosphere is cooling due to a mid-level low that is moving in, rain chances go up dramatically starting tomorrow but really Labor Day and looks to be a rainy week:



Also I don’t remember a time where models are not even showing a Bermuda high this time of year. NWS Miami snippet

The overall pattern for the week will make for an interesting
week with the weather. The Bermuda high is not present in the GFS
or the ECMWF.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[TheStormExpert]

Definitely noticed a change this evening with clouds finally forming and even got some rain. The upper levels of the atmosphere is cooling due to a mid-level low that is moving in, rain chances go up dramatically starting tomorrow but really Labor Day and looks to be a rainy week:

https://i.postimg.cc/pTTpB032/2-DE0-ABE1-7-B26-4-CA5-B260-EC65395-E5-E3-B.gif

Also I don’t remember a time where models are not even showing a Bermuda high this time of year. NWS Miami snippet

The overall pattern for the week will make for an interesting
week with the weather. The Bermuda high is not present in the GFS
or the ECMWF.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

Definitely a big contrast from the last five summers where a Bermuda High was certainly present.

[gatorcane]

Yes indeed. Early indicators suggested we were not going to see the type of Bermuda High we have seen in years past (2015-2017) and indeed that appears to be the case thus far. There was a period it was strong when Laura was moving through the Caribbean but that is about it so far. Even that steering can happen in any year. Keeping a weary eye on October for some Caribbean trouble perhaps. As far as local weather, rain is lighting up the radar as the wet pattern has set in. Looks to be a rainy night and Labor Day.

[toad strangler]

:uarrow: Yes indeed. Early indicators suggested we were not going to see the type of Bermuda High we have seen in years past (2015-2017) and indeed that appears to be the case thus far. There was a period it was strong when Laura was moving through the Caribbean but that is about it so far. Even that steering can happen in any year. Keeping a weary eye on October for some Caribbean trouble perhaps. As far as local weather, rain is lighting up the radar as the wet pattern has set in. Looks to be a rainy night and Labor Day.

Laura happened to be a MAJOR HURRICANE at landfall on the CONUS. Don't brush that off as "That's about it so far" without mentioning the end result. WOW.... that's just awful. Also, I'm keeping a WARY eye on October. Not a weary one.

[gatorcane]

Not brushing that off Toad, sorry if I gave that impression. Yes wary not weary thanks.

Wanted to post this which of course will be gone next run but dew points below 70F all the way down into far South Florida?!? Too good to be true, wistful thinking I guess:

[gatorcane]

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Miami FL
812 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

FLC011-099-130330-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0125.200913T0012Z-200913T0330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Broward FL-Palm Beach FL-
812 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Northern Broward County in southeastern Florida...
Southeastern Palm Beach County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 1130 PM EDT.

* At 812 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a feeder band from Tropical
Storm Sally slowly moving northward from Eastern Broward County
into eastern Palm Beach County of South Florida. Rainfall mounts
of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall has already fallen from this feeder
band in eastern Broward County.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Deerfield Beach, Boynton Beach,
Delray Beach, Wellington, Lake Worth, Palm Beach, Highland Beach,
Ocean Ridge, Coconut Creek, Greenacres, Royal Palm Beach,
Parkland, Palm Springs, Lantana, Atlantis, Haverhill, Cloud Lake
and Village Of Golf.

This feeder band should continue to move slowly into eastern Palm
Beach County during the next couple of hours which can produce an
additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches over the area. This
additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 2677 8038 2674 8000 2674 7999 2632 8007
2632 8008 2633 8034

$$

BAXTER

[psyclone]

La nina favors a warm and dry winter for Florida. sounds good to me. Looking forward to sun and warmth...especially after the very wet end to our rainy season.