ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Aric Dunn]

Well you dont get much more of an upper ridge than this ...

I imagine the only major inhibiting factor is dry air .. since that upper low just north of Hispanola is fianlly begining to move west. which has recently ( this morning ) allowed the ridge to build west over top of the system. if convection can maintain or increase a center may form.
it still needs to be taken seriously as a US threat would be likely if development occurs

[Aric Dunn]

Well you dont get much more of an upper ridge than this ...

I imagine the only major inhibiting factor is dry air .. since that upper low just north of Hispanola is fianlly begining to move west. which has recently ( this morning ) allowed the ridge to build west over top of the system. if convection can maintain or increase a center may form.
it still needs to be taken seriously as a US threat would be likely if development occurs

that shear map compared with the 00z clearly shows the upper ridge building westward
also shear overall in the area is way down

[gatorcane]

:uarrow:
Yeah agree Gatorcane should it persists first but agree with your reasoning as usual; we want some water here it's hot and dry, it's awfull with some dry air give it a milky appearence lol.
Hey Gatorcane the huge blob at 57/58W is forecasted to race west near us? I don't have any info on that, i you have some info on the possible movement i will be glad. tkanks.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I haven't been tracking that feature. 92L will probably not dump alot, if any rainfall for you as it will skirt the NE Leewards or pass just to the NE.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well you dont get much more of an upper ridge than this ...

I imagine the only major inhibiting factor is dry air .. since that upper low just north of Hispanola is fianlly begining to move west. which has recently ( this morning ) allowed the ridge to build west over top of the system. if convection can maintain or increase a center may form.
it still needs to be taken seriously as a US threat would be likely if development occurs

Obviously there arent too many inhibiting factors then, especially since there isnt much dry air. What ever is left likely wont be for long, because I have noticed over the past couple of days that the dry air has really dissipated quickly.

[hurricanefloyd5]

What does JB say about 92L and development? I know he said this was a SFL and points N storm at one point.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

A tropical wave about 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (92L) fell apart last night, but is beginning to increase in organization today. We don't have a QuikSCAT pass this morning to look at, but visible satellite loops show some rotation at low levels (though not a full closed circulation), and one clump of heavy thunderstorms near the center of rotation. The storm has no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow, and is in a very fragile state. Moderate wind shear of 15-20 knots or a major injection of dry air could doom the system. Right now, it doesn't appear that wind shear will be high enough to destroy 92L--shear is only 5 knots, and expected to remain less than 10 knots for the next 5 days. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air and Saharan dust surrounds 92L on all sides, and this dry air was responsible for 92L's severe degradation last night and early this morning. Dry air remains 92L's greatest enemy.

The forecast for 92L
Watching the the model forecasts for 92L over the past three days has, for me, been akin to watching the latest Batman movie, The Dark Knight. As the Joker prepares for one of his deadly pranks, the music rises in pitch and volume, and the audience nervously waits to see what terrible mayhem the Joker has planned next. Like music in the movie, the reliable GFDL model forecasts of 92L the past three days have risen in pitch and volume. The GFLD has been forecasting successively stronger hurricanes each day, culminating in yesterday afternoon's run predicting a Category 3 hurricane plowing through the Bahama Islands towards Florida this weekend. Well, our Batman--dry air--has come to the rescue this time, significantly disrupting 92L. However, it remains to be seen if the Joker--92L--has one more trick up its sleeve. The GFDL model is still calling for 92L to develop into a borderline Category 1 hurricane by early next week, as is the latest run of the SHIPS intensity model. The other models are less gung-ho, and most of the models foresee that 92L will come close enough to the high mountains of the Dominican Republic to cause the storm trouble.

The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a medium (20-50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression by Friday morning. A few showers from 92L have already begun to spread over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands this morning, and the bulk of the storm will spread over the islands tonight and Thursday. By Friday, 92L will be affecting Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba can expect heavy rains Saturday or Sunday, and 92L could affect Florida early next week. The Hurricane Hunter mission for today was canceled, but a new mission is scheduled for Thursday if the storm overcomes its dry air problems.

I'll have an update this afternoon between 4pm and 5 pm EDT.
Jeff Masters

[Blown Away]

hurricanefloyd5, that was Jeff Master's writeup, not Joe B.

[DESTRUCTION5]

hurricanefloyd5, that was Jeff Master's writeup, not Joe B.

Was gonna say...The Batman thing sounded like him but the rest was to easy to read...LOL

[Gustywind]

:uarrow:
Yeah agree Gatorcane should it persists first but agree with your reasoning as usual; we want some water here it's hot and dry, it's awfull with some dry air give it a milky appearence lol.
Hey Gatorcane the huge blob at 57/58W is forecasted to race west near us? I don't have any info on that, i you have some info on the possible movement i will be glad. tkanks.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I haven't been tracking that feature. 92L will probably not dump alot, if any rainfall for you as it will skirt the NE Leewards or pass just to the NE.

Ok tkanks a lot, but i don't tkink that we will experience much weather action on this one ( weak showers..)

[Ed Mahmoud]

New JB tropical "Big Dog" video not posted yet.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Bones?... Bones?... Has he beamed down? I surely thought this system was in full dissipation last night when the convection collapsed. So, now 24 hours later what do we have?

A pocket of steep shear to overcome ahead of the system http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html from the TUTT which is the largest factor inhibiting this storm. Unlike last night we also have some convergence/divergence happening with anticyclonic outflow. If the ULL (now over Hisp.) contiues to move W this system could overcome the shear and remaining dry air and develop a real LLC and stack up. Then we may see this pull up N never reaching FL or the EC in any form.

Bones...still standing by..

[hurricanefloyd5]

hurricanefloyd5, that was Jeff Master's writeup, not Joe B.

Was gonna say...The Batman thing sounded like him but the rest was to easy to read...LOL

opps wrong JB but any ways there is what the other JB says. This looks like a Hurricane Floyd sernerio but alot closer to the state of florida. Dose anyone agree??????/

[alienstorm]

Well it seems that it started it's afternoon down pulse, I am starting to doubt this developing I was almost sure we saw the beginning of the start earlier today, but it looks like I was wrong again.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-56.0

[BensonTCwatcher]

starting to note first signs of real banding and check the wind obs confirming building inflow especially from the South with match the low level cloud patterns. This is a trend to watch to see if it continues today.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

[Steve]

>>Mountain out of a mole hill...real story is what is coming behind it.

Maybe so, but there are threads for that. So while you're stepping on the molehill, make sure it's not a red ant pile. Their bites hurt, especially in the summertime.

Steve

[cycloneye]

387
ABNT20 KNHC 131735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[Aric Dunn]

Bones?... Bones?... Has he beamed down? I surely thought this system was in full dissipation last night when the convection collapsed. So, now 24 hours later what do we have?

A pocket of steep shear to overcome ahead of the system http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html from the TUTT which is the largest factor inhibiting this storm. Unlike last night we also have some convergence/divergence happening with anticyclonic outflow. If the ULL (now over Hisp.) contiues to move W this system could overcome the shear and remaining dry air and develop a real LLC and stack up. Then we may see this pull up N never reaching FL or the EC in any form.

Bones...still standing by..

i agree for the most part except the steep shear.. only becasue that area continues to weaken as the upper low weakens and pulls away( slowly). also the likely hood of missing the US is low as by the time any trough comes the system is in the central bahamas ( according to nearly every model) and none of them show recure ( Ne motion). but we will have to see how soon as center closes of ( if at all ) either way bahamas will be in the thinck of it no matter if it develops or not.

[txwatcher91]

starting to note first signs of real banding and check the wind obs confirming building inflow especially from the South with match the low level cloud patterns. This is a trend to watch to see if it continues today.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

Is it me or does it appear that there are low level clouds streaming in from the south, indicating an LLC or one forming?

[txag2005]

Do most invests normally take this long to develop or die off? It gets a bit frustrating to not know what is going to happen.

[Aric Dunn]

Do most invests normally take this long to develop or die off? It gets a bit frustrating to not know what is going to happen.

yes and no! but this year seem to have a little more of that going .. I.e Dolly was quite annoying...

[KWT]

Convection once again has fired over the center, its very interesting to watch flare up and flare down again, I still think we aren't quite ready for to go ahead and develop just yet and may still take another 12-24hrs but upper conditions look far better now with that upper ridge forming.

Track should remain a little south of WNW now IMO, going to come fairly close to the Ne Caribbean Islands IMO.