The BAMS have shifted south.

Moderator: S2k Moderators
HURRICANELONNY wrote:One thing that seems to be the consensus this year. So far. Is most of the reliable models have not done a good job in showing organization of storms. I don't know why. But it sure looks like this will be a depression/storm when recon gets there today. Hopefully it will give some much needed rain to Texas.
thequeenamom wrote::?: When is landfall expected?
Landfall is only a meaningful term if the system develops into a tropical storm and maintains that status until it reaches the coast. But, assuming 90L does those things (and it may not!), we are looking at about 3 days to the Mexico/Texas/Louisiana coast.
Again, I'm just an amateur looking at a couple of models. This isn't an official forecast - the NHC hasn't released any products specifying track forecasts yet.
Aric Dunn wrote:The circulation is beginning to poke out the northern side of the convection from the northerly shear.. pretty apparent we have a closed surface circ. and it seems as though its trying to get pulled north... at the moment..
NDG wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:The circulation is beginning to poke out the northern side of the convection from the northerly shear.. pretty apparent we have a closed surface circ. and it seems as though its trying to get pulled north... at the moment..
Initially I thought the same but as vis sat pics keep coming in it appears that the possible LLC is staying under the covers.
But yeah, Cancun and Cuban radar shows that the deep convection is to the south of the COC, it might be already feeling the NE shear.
thequeenamom wrote:Landfall is only a meaningful term if the system develops into a tropical storm and maintains that status until it reaches the coast. But, assuming 90L does those things (and it may not!), we are looking at about 3 days to the Mexico/Texas/Louisiana coast.
Again, I'm just an amateur looking at a couple of models. This isn't an official forecast - the NHC hasn't released any products specifying track forecasts yet.
Thank you- Just curious because my daughter has a ball in Galveston this Sat. evening...........
plasticup wrote:thequeenamom wrote::?: When is landfall expected?
Landfall is only a meaningful term if the system develops into a tropical storm and maintains that status until it reaches the coast. But, assuming 90L does those things (and it may not!), we are looking at about 3 days to the Mexico/Texas/Louisiana coast.
Again, I'm just an amateur looking at a couple of models. This isn't an official forecast - the NHC hasn't released any products specifying track forecasts yet.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL902011 07/27/11 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 48 53 61 66 72 75 77 76
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 48 53 61 40 31 28 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 47 55 63 42 31 28 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 8 8 0 6 11 3 11 5 4 1 8 3 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 0 -3 -4 -3
SHEAR DIR 351 27 242 293 4 99 26 80 44 265 31 20 41
SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.3 28.8 27.9 28.4 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 148 142 141 144 149 157 149 136 143 151 152 146 137
ADJ. POT. INT. 136 128 128 132 135 142 134 121 125 130 129 121 111
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 12 11 13 11 14 11 14 10 12 10
700-500 MB RH 63 64 65 61 63 58 57 52 52 55 53 52 49
GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 3 3 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -28 -16 -4 -1 -8 -11 -21 -13 -16 -18 -13 -30 -25
200 MB DIV -3 9 12 24 16 17 -16 -15 -6 -4 1 -4 1
700-850 TADV 0 -3 0 0 -9 1 -10 -1 -7 -3 -7 -2 -10
LAND (KM) 68 79 113 200 288 479 291 76 -179 -393 -554 -661 -689
LAT (DEG N) 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 86.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 8 7 4 2
HEAT CONTENT 3 5 7 20 34 44 50 10 0 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=623)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 31. 36. 42. 45. 47. 46.
** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 07/27/11 12 UTC **
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 07/27/11 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 07/27/2011 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
Stormcenter wrote:As I stated yesterday this looks like a SE Texas maybe SW LA. event.
The only issue now is whether or not it will be a sheared system or formidable tropical storm or hurricane. JMHO
RL3AO wrote:Stormcenter wrote:As I stated yesterday this looks like a SE Texas maybe SW LA. event.
The only issue now is whether or not it will be a sheared system or formidable tropical storm or hurricane. JMHO
Disagree. The track isn't locked it. This could just as well hit South Texas.
NDG wrote:So how many of you think that the NHC may go ahead in upgrading 90L to TD 4 at 15z?
A closed surface circulation is now very evident based on radar, satellite and surface observations with 1.5 sat classification.
NDG wrote:So how many of you think that the NHC may go ahead in upgrading 90L to TD 4 at 15z?
A closed surface circulation is now very evident based on radar, satellite and surface observations with 1.5 sat classification.
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