ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

TheStormExpert · #1621 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:13 pm

Frank2 wrote:No, just that recon hasn't found winds that call for an upgrade...

Is recon still out there?

#1622 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:14 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Frank2 wrote:No, just that recon hasn't found winds that call for an upgrade...

Is recon still out there?

Air Force plane left but NOAA3 will make a last pass shortly.

Aric Dunn · #1623 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:14 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Frank2 wrote:No, just that recon hasn't found winds that call for an upgrade...

Is recon still out there?

looks like for one more pass ne to sw the noaa plane.. AF heading home

TheAustinMan · #1624 Postby **TheAustinMan** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:16 pm

MIMIC TC (blend of various 85 and 89 GHz microwave channels from five satellites) for Arthur today. Signs of organization.

Aric Dunn · #1625 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
Frank2 wrote:No, just that recon hasn't found winds that call for an upgrade...

Is recon still out there?

Air Force plane left but NOAA3 will make a last pass shortly.

find it funny that the AF plane always does (for the most part) perfect angled turns and pattern.. the noaa plane is all over the place.. lol

hurricaneCW · #1626 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:18 pm

It's a pretty small system so it could quickly ramp up, I'd imagine it will get larger the further north it gets as it starts to interact with the trough. Maybe we'll see an Alex type intensification.

WxEnthus · #1627 Postby **WxEnthus** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:19 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Frank2 wrote:No, just that recon hasn't found winds that call for an upgrade...

Is recon still out there?

Yes. I *think* AF is on the way home, but the NOAA plane is still out there but probably not for too much longer.

CarolinaNBANFL · #1628 Postby **CarolinaNBANFL** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:20 pm

It actually looks like it has gotten bigger the last few frames.

#1629 Postby **syfr** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:20 pm

got ants? wrote:I wonder if they are watching this site and all the intel you guys are pouring over. I wonder if they feel you guys are stealing thier thunder, and, I wonder if they didn't hold back on it just in spite of us... lol

It's a conspiracy I tell you!

:double:

WxEnthus · #1630 Postby **WxEnthus** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:21 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
find it funny that the AF plane always does (for the most part) perfect angled turns and pattern.. the noaa plane is all over the place.. lol

HA! I was just thinking the same thing. AirForce all rigid and in perfect pattern, while NOAA looks like it's a biplane practicing for the airshow...

TheAustinMan · #1631 Postby **TheAustinMan** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:23 pm

CarolinaNBANFL wrote:65 knots and a pressure that low means this thing is actually a hurricane if I do not have something twisted there. I seen 65 knots was found along with a 984 mb reading. That is hurricane all day even for someone like me doesn't take rocket science. I know NOAA found that reading but it wasn't discredited or at least I didn't see a post that said it was erroneous.

Keep in mind that the reconnaissance documents and estimates peak winds averaged over a ten second period, while advisories report on peak winds averaged over a one minute period. It may not seem like much but IMO may be significant in the timing of intensification versus recon reports. Haven't seen anyone yet comment on this difference.

#1632 Postby **Alyono** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:23 pm

NOAA plane is for research or Doppler radar. The AF is a standard alpha pattern as it is an operational flight

CarolinaNBANFL · #1633 Postby **CarolinaNBANFL** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:25 pm

Thanks for some clarification TheAustinMan

#1634 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:25 pm

NOAA3 Mission #08 into ARTHUR
As of 00:21 UTC Jul 03, 2014:

Aircraft Position: 30.27°N 79.13°W
Bearing: 153° at 262 kt
Altitude: 3390 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 3 kt at 351°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 982.8 mb

Aric Dunn · #1635 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:27 pm

Alyono wrote:NOAA plane is for research or Doppler radar. The AF is a standard alpha pattern as it is an operational flight

yeah most know that.. but any research scientific analysis would logically be done with a little conciseness....

#1636 Postby **Alyono** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:27 pm

pressure probably 989mb now... but winds still do not justify an upgrade

#1637 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:28 pm

cycloneye wrote:NOAA3 Mission #08 into ARTHUR
As of 00:21 UTC Jul 03, 2014:

Aircraft Position: 30.27°N 79.13°W
Bearing: 153° at 262 kt
Altitude: 3390 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 3 kt at 351°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 982.8 mb

There is the pass with that low reading at the end.

WxEnthus · #1638 Postby **WxEnthus** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:28 pm

Alyono wrote:NOAA plane is for research or Doppler radar. The AF is a standard alpha pattern as it is an operational flight

Which is what surprised me whenAF missed center earlier and veered into a sharp loop to go back and find it, usually they will just get it on the next pass and not deviate.

hurricanes1234 · #1639 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:28 pm

Does anyone think it will be upgraded at 11:00 pm?

#1640 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:29 pm

Alyono wrote:pressure probably 989mb now... but winds still do not justify an upgrade

Agree,no stronger winds found than the ones in previous passes.

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