2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[gatorcane]

Pretty good signal from the CMC and GFS ensembles in the long-range.

[jlauderdal]

Eric BlakeVerified account
‏@EricBlake12
As #Matthew winds down, interesting to see both the GFS/EC with a new Caribbean low beyond a week. MJO would tend to support it

[otowntiger]

I agree that this bears watching since these same models were so astute at predicting the genesis and the track of Matthew all the way across the Atlantic.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z GFS shows development on the Epac side whereas the 12z Euro develops in the SW Caribbean side. Subtle differences that have huge implications on if we get a Caribbean hurricane or not.....


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[abajan]

I agree that this bears watching since these same models were so astute at predicting the genesis and the track of Matthew all the way across the Atlantic.

Indeed. From the time the wave which eventually developed into Matthew was as far east as Nigeria, many of the models locked on to it as potential trouble:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118341

[otowntiger]

I agree that this bears watching since these same models were so astute at predicting the genesis and the track of Matthew all the way across the Atlantic.

Indeed. From the time the wave which eventually developed into Matthew was as far east as Nigeria, many of the models locked on to it as potential trouble:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118341

The models are amazing in my opinion. It is surprising that they get bashed so often when they are as correct as they are.

[PTrackerLA]

Wouldn't surprise me to see a system develop in the W. Carib. Sill 3 weeks of October left after all but I'm thoroughly enjoying not being obsessed with models runs every 6 hours. Even the armchair enthusiasts get worn out!

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS seems to be similar to the 12zEuro just weaker

[chaser1]

Wouldn't even surprise me if the models drop genesis for a day or two, but suddenly roar back with showing W. Caribbean development again in a 5-7 day range. Definitly would be the last thing in the world that Haiti needs but I'd assume a similar type track might start further west. Far less worried about a 3 - peat Caribbean system as something as late as November would more than likely be weak and already be getting pretty sheared.

[CourierPR]

Wouldn't even surprise me if the models drop genesis for a day or two, but suddenly roar back with showing W. Caribbean development again in a 5-7 day range. Definitly would be the last thing in the world that Haiti needs but I'd assume a similar type track might start further west. Far less worried about a 3 - peat Caribbean system as something as late as November would more than likely be weak and already be getting pretty sheared.

In 2005, we were told in S. FL that Wilma would hit as a weak, sheared system. It was neither.

[jlauderdal]

Wouldn't even surprise me if the models drop genesis for a day or two, but suddenly roar back with showing W. Caribbean development again in a 5-7 day range. Definitly would be the last thing in the world that Haiti needs but I'd assume a similar type track might start further west. Far less worried about a 3 - peat Caribbean system as something as late as November would more than likely be weak and already be getting pretty sheared.

In 2005, we were told in S. FL that Wilma would hit as a weak, sheared system. It was neither.

be on the lookout at all times especially beyond 72 hours

[wxman57]

I'm quite confident that a storm will be brewing in the Caribbean around the 20th-21st. I have another comp day scheduled for the 21st. Still 2 1/2 comp days left to take from Hermine and Matthew. Despite that, I do think we'll have to keep an eye on the western Caribbean later in the month. The season may not be quite over yet. I'm not concerned about the mid Gulf coast to Texas any longer, though.

Well, time to head to the airport. I'll be at Disney in Orlando through Friday.

[jlauderdal]

I'm quite confident that a storm will be brewing in the Caribbean around the 20th-21st. I have another comp day scheduled for the 21st. Still 2 1/2 comp days left to take from Hermine and Matthew. Despite that, I do think we'll have to keep an eye on the western Caribbean later in the month. The season may not be quite over yet. I'm not concerned about the mid Gulf coast to Texas any longer, though.

Well, time to head to the airport. I'll be at Disney in Orlando through Friday.

welcome to the sunshine state.,,fortunately you wernt here last week on vacation..weather is much better too..temps and dewpoints have decreased behind matthew..you couldnt have planned it better

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Looking @ the models EC/EPS spags ens hint for a system in the western caribbean later this month around the 20th.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/785205624288243712

[otowntiger]

I'm quite confident that a storm will be brewing in the Caribbean around the 20th-21st. I have another comp day scheduled for the 21st. Still 2 1/2 comp days left to take from Hermine and Matthew. Despite that, I do think we'll have to keep an eye on the western Caribbean later in the month. The season may not be quite over yet. I'm not concerned about the mid Gulf coast to Texas any longer, though.

Well, time to head to the airport. I'll be at Disney in Orlando through Friday.

Looks like you timed you vacation perfectly! The weather here in Orlando is the best its been since the spring time. Glorious fall day (for us anyway- low 80's and clear as a bell).

[Pughetime12]

I'm quite confident that a storm will be brewing in the Caribbean around the 20th-21st. I have another comp day scheduled for the 21st. Still 2 1/2 comp days left to take from Hermine and Matthew. Despite that, I do think we'll have to keep an eye on the western Caribbean later in the month. The season may not be quite over yet. I'm not concerned about the mid Gulf coast to Texas any longer, though.

Well, time to head to the airport. I'll be at Disney in Orlando through Friday.

I hear you, I leave for a cruise out of Miami to Cozumel on the 20th. I'll be in Cozumel on the 22nd. I'm hoping nothing is brewing around there.

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF ensembles at 240 hours


06z GFS ensembles at 198 hours


00z CMC ensembles at 204 hours

[USTropics]

CFS has lowering pressure in this area for october 20th

[USTropics]

CFS and GFS model show decreasing shear near the mid part of October through the end of the month:

00z CFS



06z GFS