2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[cjrciadt]

Here in PR,we dont want to experience another Maria for a second year in a row or even less strong like TS Jeanne in 2004 as this territory went thru with the many fatalities (2,975) and lack of the power grid etc.But the good thing about this run is that is FV3 so al least is not the actual global models as they are doing tests.But if the old GFS and Euro have it then all bets are off.We will see what occurs next week.

Yeah PR is closed.

[LarryWx]

General model question: what's with the 18z GFS ensembles?
Is the vast swath of orange over Africa a sign that all heck is about to break loose?

I'm guessing Happy Hour-itis is the reason. Often the 18Z GEFS has lower SLPs than other runs. And this is way out at hour 372, which is too far out to take this seriously even on an ensemble run.

[TheStormExpert]

This is the same FV3-GFS that had a major hurricane impacting parts of the Gulf coast back in early June right?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

:uarrow: This is the same FV3-GFS that had a major hurricane impacting parts of the Gulf coast back in early June right?

Early when it was first being released, yes, but recently it's shown improvements. I believe it's intended to be the replacement for the current GFS. It doesn't overdo intensity nearly as much as the operational does (ex: operational GFS shows 06L hitting the Cape Verde islands as a 980mb hurricane, whereas the FV3 shows a 996mb storm, which is much more accurate).

[HurricaneBelle]

:uarrow: This is the same FV3-GFS that had a major hurricane impacting parts of the Gulf coast back in early June right?

Early when it was first being released, yes, but recently it's shown improvements. I believe it's intended to be the replacement for the current GFS. It doesn't overdo intensity nearly as much as the operational does (ex: operational GFS shows 06L hitting the Cape Verde islands as a 980mb hurricane, whereas the FV3 shows a 996mb storm, which is much more accurate).

It nailed Lane better than any of the other models.

[Gustywind]

Here in PR,we dont want to experience another Maria for a second year in a row or even less strong like TS Jeanne in 2004 as this territory went thru with the many fatalities (2,975) and lack of the power grid etc.But the good thing about this run is that is FV3 so al least is not the actual global models as they are doing tests of this model.But if the old GFS and Euro have it then all bets are off.We will see what occurs next week.

Hey hey, Guadeloupe on a direct hit? Like you Luis, here in Guadeloupe too, we do not want too experience any or another Maria. Pertinent analysis in your post Luis. Let's see what next week could bring to understand more seriously the situation.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: This is the same FV3-GFS that had a major hurricane impacting parts of the Gulf coast back in early June right?

Early when it was first being released, yes, but recently it's shown improvements. I believe it's intended to be the replacement for the current GFS. It doesn't overdo intensity nearly as much as the operational does (ex: operational GFS shows 06L hitting the Cape Verde islands as a 980mb hurricane, whereas the FV3 shows a 996mb storm, which is much more accurate).

It nailed Lane better than any of the other models.

Well let’s all hope it’s totally wrong with future (Gordon?) and bringing it near or through the NE Caribbean as a major hurricane. They don’t need any of that this year or for MANY MANY years to come!

Though the name Gordon just has due for retirement written all over it. It just sounds like it could be the big one this season (hopefully I’m wrong), and it should have been retired back in 1994.

[Sambucol]

How can possible Gordon curve to sea with the high parked over the east?

[floridasun78]

let see what happen 15 is long way from now we could see models change by than we know their chance like crazy PR and islands don't need any storm this year but we know we now coming peck of season key west today open hotel was close because hurr damge was at big pine key so let hope show weak ts ot td by 15 not hurr even ts or td is bad

[Hurricaneman]

How can possible Gordon curve to sea with the high parked over the east?

How do we even know this will be Gordon, could end up being Helene or even Isaac if the System near Puerto Rico develops in the GOM and don’t forget what’s currently in the GOM

[Cpv17]

0z GFS run is a big yawn.

[Sambucol]

How can possible Gordon curve to sea with the high parked over the east?

How do we even know this will be Gordon, could end up being Helene or even Isaac if the System near Puerto Rico develops in the GOM and don’t forget what’s currently in the GOM

True. I’m on the upper Texas coast and watching what’s about to enter the GOM.

[Cpv17]

How can possible Gordon curve to sea with the high parked over the east?

How do we even know this will be Gordon, could end up being Helene or even Isaac if the System near Puerto Rico develops in the GOM and don’t forget what’s currently in the GOM

True. I’m on the upper Texas coast and watching what’s about to enter the GOM.

At this point I don’t expect it to be much except an increase in showers and storms across our area next weekend, but we’ll see.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS (~20 members) has two camps now split pretty evenly: camp 1 recurves well east while camp 2 makes to it at least 60W with some of those threatening/hitting Bermuda. One of camp 2 actually hits the Delmarva Peninsula of the US east coast. Prior runs had either all or almost all in camp 1 although 1 on the 18Z GEFS hit the US (SC) and 2 on the 6Z threatened the US east coast. Neither of the last 2 EPS (51 members) hit the US. However, regarding the CDN ens (~20 members), 2 from the 12Z and 3 from the 0Z of 24 hours ago hit the CONUS. I haven't seen the new 0z CDN ens yet.

[Cpv17]

The Euro is more exciting than the GFS, no doubt.

[otowntiger]

The Euro is more exciting than the GFS, no doubt.

Looks like another big fish train.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The Euro is more exciting than the GFS, no doubt.

Looks like another big fish train.

Not so sure about that, check out the 500mb heights. Although weaker than compared to the 12z, models have shown a weak high over the EATL building in behind Florence. You can see those two systems behind Florence are more westbound.

[cycloneye]

Who can answer this question. Why the models have different scenarios about waves emerging Africa behind 06L? GFS has nothing while Euro has a couple of west runners.

[TheStormExpert]

Who can answer this question. Why the models have different scenarios about waves emerging Africa behind 06L? GFS has nothing while Euro has a couple of west runners.

The models have been a complete mess this season with so much inconsistency from run to run, or model to model. Hard to believe the Euro when it to has not performed its best this season.

[SFLcane]

Well... per GFS potential tropical cyclone six will be the only game in town through almost mid september. Works for me

edit:12z euro has a bunch a weak storms across the mdr for some reason it keeps developing these tropical storms right off the african coast. Whats up with the EC lately?