Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: Stay safe Yukon!!!
Thanks! I’ll give it all I’ve got!
Texas Spring 2019
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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: Texas Spring 2019
Thanks! I’ll give it all I’ve got!
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#neversummer
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2019
——-
600
FXUS64 KAMA 201723
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1223 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
...Severe weather outbreak likely this afternoon...
* Synoptic Overview: The synoptic pattern could hardly be more favorable for a Plains severe weather outbreak with veering wind profiles, tons of instability, yada yada yada (it's all there).
* Mesoscale: Morning convection continues early this afternoon northwest of a stationary boundary that basically lays across US 60 from Amarillo to Canadian. This boundary desperately wants to lift north as a warm front in response to the approaching upr system, but continues to be reinforced by outflow from ongoing convection and is basically lodged in place. SE of this bndry, an explosive warm sector is developing with MLCAPE values that may eventually push to near 5000 J/kg in the SE TX Panhandle!
Effective shear values will be an eye popping 60-70 kts. Down lower, 0-1 shear and effective helicity values will be sufficient for low level rotation, especially given strong stretching aided by 0-3km MLCAPE values pushing 250 J/kg. While the warm sector will be plenty dangerous itself, the aforementioned stalling outflow boundary may even result in an enhanced tornado threat from roughly Amarillo to Pampa if it is able to modify thermodynamically before any storms ride it.
* Timing: Based on recent satellite/obs trends showing an area of strong pre-dryline convergence, surfaced based convection in our area should begin in earnest somewhere 30 miles either side of I-27 by 2 PM. The worst of the threat will be over for the Panhandles by around 9 PM, though another round of storms could result in a flash flooding threat in the eastern TX Panhandle through midnight.
* Caveats: There aren't many. The main caveat would be with a weak EML/cool-ish temps at h7 allowing too much convection, with storm interactions possible. However, in the Panhandles, when in doubt, discrete wins out (or at least quasi-discrete).
* Threat Area: The greatest threat is confined by US 60 to the north, with all areas along and southeast of US 60 under the gun, including Amarillo, Canyon, Pampa, Canadian, Wellington, Wheeler, Clarendon, Miami, Claude, and Shamrock.
* Hazards: The potential for strong tornadoes is the greatest concern, but everything from very large hail (bigger than baseballs possible), damaging straight line winds, and flooding are all parts of this event.
Simpson
&&
600
FXUS64 KAMA 201723
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1223 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
...Severe weather outbreak likely this afternoon...
* Synoptic Overview: The synoptic pattern could hardly be more favorable for a Plains severe weather outbreak with veering wind profiles, tons of instability, yada yada yada (it's all there).
* Mesoscale: Morning convection continues early this afternoon northwest of a stationary boundary that basically lays across US 60 from Amarillo to Canadian. This boundary desperately wants to lift north as a warm front in response to the approaching upr system, but continues to be reinforced by outflow from ongoing convection and is basically lodged in place. SE of this bndry, an explosive warm sector is developing with MLCAPE values that may eventually push to near 5000 J/kg in the SE TX Panhandle!
Effective shear values will be an eye popping 60-70 kts. Down lower, 0-1 shear and effective helicity values will be sufficient for low level rotation, especially given strong stretching aided by 0-3km MLCAPE values pushing 250 J/kg. While the warm sector will be plenty dangerous itself, the aforementioned stalling outflow boundary may even result in an enhanced tornado threat from roughly Amarillo to Pampa if it is able to modify thermodynamically before any storms ride it.
* Timing: Based on recent satellite/obs trends showing an area of strong pre-dryline convergence, surfaced based convection in our area should begin in earnest somewhere 30 miles either side of I-27 by 2 PM. The worst of the threat will be over for the Panhandles by around 9 PM, though another round of storms could result in a flash flooding threat in the eastern TX Panhandle through midnight.
* Caveats: There aren't many. The main caveat would be with a weak EML/cool-ish temps at h7 allowing too much convection, with storm interactions possible. However, in the Panhandles, when in doubt, discrete wins out (or at least quasi-discrete).
* Threat Area: The greatest threat is confined by US 60 to the north, with all areas along and southeast of US 60 under the gun, including Amarillo, Canyon, Pampa, Canadian, Wellington, Wheeler, Clarendon, Miami, Claude, and Shamrock.
* Hazards: The potential for strong tornadoes is the greatest concern, but everything from very large hail (bigger than baseballs possible), damaging straight line winds, and flooding are all parts of this event.
Simpson
&&
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2019
@akrherz — Based on my unofficial database, the 45% Tornado Probability is the first since 14 Apr 2012. Others are 27 Apr 2011 and 24 May 2011. Unsure how far back the 45% probability was even possible to issue for.
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TheProfessor
- Professional-Met
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Re: Texas Spring 2019
Man, the high res models have been trending scarier throughout the day. This is going to very serious day and I’m truly afraid for the chasers, today does not feel like a safe chase when you include chaser density and road flooding.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Re: Texas Spring 2019
I hope everyone up north stays safe. We are thinking of you today.
1 likes
Resident Rain Miser
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
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Texas Snowman
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- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2019
Yup, the chaser map is lit up in SW Oklahoma.
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Tireman4
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Re: Texas Spring 2019
US National Weather Service Norman Oklahoma
6 mins ·
1:00 PM update: Severe thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop between now and 2:00 PM across parts of southwestern Oklahoma. We have a volatile combination of warm muggy unstable air and very strong wind shear, and because of that, any storms that form this afternoon will intensify rapidly and become severe. We expect to issue tornado warnings fairly quickly for any storm that looks like it's a supercell. Storms should become more numerous as we go through the afternoon, and we could be dealing with multiple tornadic storms at the same time by mid to late afternoon. The tornado risk will increase across central Oklahoma after 3:00 PM and continue into the evening.
Stay alert and be safe!
6 mins ·
1:00 PM update: Severe thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop between now and 2:00 PM across parts of southwestern Oklahoma. We have a volatile combination of warm muggy unstable air and very strong wind shear, and because of that, any storms that form this afternoon will intensify rapidly and become severe. We expect to issue tornado warnings fairly quickly for any storm that looks like it's a supercell. Storms should become more numerous as we go through the afternoon, and we could be dealing with multiple tornadic storms at the same time by mid to late afternoon. The tornado risk will increase across central Oklahoma after 3:00 PM and continue into the evening.
Stay alert and be safe!
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2019
@Doc_Sanger — Worst-case scenario unfolding for SW/C OK w/many discrete supercells spaced far enough apart to not interfere w/one another later this afternoon. Thus, long-lived, violent tornadoes likely after 2-3 PM until around 8-9 PM, before a line develops.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2019
@KOCOdamonlane — From The Storm Prediction Center: Environmental signals are continuing to point towards a tornado outbreak with multiple strong to potentially violent tornadoes across portions of western and central OK later this afternoon into the evening.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2019
@stormchaserQ — 18z OUN RAOB / Norman, OK / Sampled a 46kt LLJ (850mb) and approximately 40 knots of 0-1km shear, which will only strengthen. Given the location of the warm front, just N of I-40, the environment in central Oklahoma can easily support intense (EF-3+) to violent (EF-4+) tornadoes.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2019
———
@NWSSPC — PDS Tornado Watch # 199 is coming for Oklahoma. This is only the second watch in SPC history where every category of watch probabilities (torn, wind, hail) are at greater than 95%.
The only other watch like this was issued for Alabama on 27 April 2011.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2019
Mesoscale Discussion 0702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019
Areas affected...southwest and central OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon
Valid 201821Z - 201845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Environmental signals are continuing to point towards a
tornado outbreak with multiple strong to potentially violent
tornadoes across portions of western and central OK later this
afternoon into the evening.
DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a bubbling and destabilizing
boundary layer with upwards of 4000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE developing
across the warm sector over western and central OK. Surface
dewpoints are rising through the lower 70s degrees F across western
and central OK.
The 18z Fort Worth, TX upper air balloon showed a capping inversion
located just below 700mb. Recent runs of the RAP model show this
inversion less pronounced farther north. Despite temperatures
warming into the lower 80s over north TX into southwest OK, this
capping inversion has delayed convective initiation. This is
concerning for 2 reasons: 1) the wind profile continues to
strengthen across southwest and central OK with the Norman, OK upper
air balloon sampling 50kt flow around 850mb which is about 1-2 hours
earlier than forecast soundings were showing. 2) It does not appear
many storms will develop across southwest OK and resulting in
destructive storm-to-storm interference. In other words, tornadic
potential appears very high. Storms will likely initiate on the
north-end of the cloud streets over southwestern OK in the hotter
air and intensify and move northeast towards the I-40 and I-35
corridors later.
As such, the very rare combination of shear/buoyancy with many hours
of run-to-run consistency of the HRRR model showing discrete
supercells all point to a tornado outbreak developing later this
afternoon featuring strong to violent long-track tornadoes.
..Smith/Hart.. 05/20/2019
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NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019
Areas affected...southwest and central OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon
Valid 201821Z - 201845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Environmental signals are continuing to point towards a
tornado outbreak with multiple strong to potentially violent
tornadoes across portions of western and central OK later this
afternoon into the evening.
DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a bubbling and destabilizing
boundary layer with upwards of 4000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE developing
across the warm sector over western and central OK. Surface
dewpoints are rising through the lower 70s degrees F across western
and central OK.
The 18z Fort Worth, TX upper air balloon showed a capping inversion
located just below 700mb. Recent runs of the RAP model show this
inversion less pronounced farther north. Despite temperatures
warming into the lower 80s over north TX into southwest OK, this
capping inversion has delayed convective initiation. This is
concerning for 2 reasons: 1) the wind profile continues to
strengthen across southwest and central OK with the Norman, OK upper
air balloon sampling 50kt flow around 850mb which is about 1-2 hours
earlier than forecast soundings were showing. 2) It does not appear
many storms will develop across southwest OK and resulting in
destructive storm-to-storm interference. In other words, tornadic
potential appears very high. Storms will likely initiate on the
north-end of the cloud streets over southwestern OK in the hotter
air and intensify and move northeast towards the I-40 and I-35
corridors later.
As such, the very rare combination of shear/buoyancy with many hours
of run-to-run consistency of the HRRR model showing discrete
supercells all point to a tornado outbreak developing later this
afternoon featuring strong to violent long-track tornadoes.
..Smith/Hart.. 05/20/2019
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2019
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Western Oklahoma
Northwest Texas
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80
mph expected
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter expected
SUMMARY...An outbreak of tornadoes, including the risk of intense
and long-track tornadoes, is expected to develop this afternoon
across the watch area. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts are
expected with the numerous supercell storms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Altus OK to 50 miles
east southeast of Chandler OK. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197...WW 198...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.
...Hart
Top of P
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Western Oklahoma
Northwest Texas
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80
mph expected
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter expected
SUMMARY...An outbreak of tornadoes, including the risk of intense
and long-track tornadoes, is expected to develop this afternoon
across the watch area. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts are
expected with the numerous supercell storms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Altus OK to 50 miles
east southeast of Chandler OK. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197...WW 198...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.
...Hart
Top of P
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Lagreeneyes03
- Category 2
- Posts: 558
- Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:53 am
- Location: Luxurious Lake Grapevine
Re: Texas Spring 2019
I can't even imagine if this were the scenario for DFW/AUS/SAT areas. Wow.
3 likes
I'm a Princess, not a forecaster.
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2019
Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019
TORNADO WATCH 199 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-210300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0199.190520T1835Z-190521T0300Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019
TORNADO WATCH 199 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-210300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0199.190520T1835Z-190521T0300Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2019
Heads up Yukon, PDS Tornado Watch for Wichita and Clay Counties. It also covers a good portion of Oklahoma, including Marshall and Bryan Counties. They are on the northern side of Lake Texoma, just a few miles from my house in Denison.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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TheProfessor
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3506
- Age: 28
- Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
- Location: Wichita, Kansas
Re: Texas Spring 2019
Wish I could send the Men in Women at the impacted weather offices some food. I know this is going to be a stressful day for them. They’re going to have their work cutout for them today.
1 likes
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
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Lagreeneyes03
- Category 2
- Posts: 558
- Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:53 am
- Location: Luxurious Lake Grapevine
Re: Texas Spring 2019
My dad runs a campground up in Oklahoma at Lake Murray near Ardmore-I've been in contact with him all day trying to convince him to come down to DFW for a day or two and he refuses..........he says "Well we have a bathroom at the campground we can take cover in"...
I'm trying to convince him to at least go to Winstar or to Ardmore to the shops and near a sturdier structure.
Freaking out here a little bit.
I'm trying to convince him to at least go to Winstar or to Ardmore to the shops and near a sturdier structure.
Freaking out here a little bit.
0 likes
I'm a Princess, not a forecaster.
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rwfromkansas
- Category 5
- Posts: 2627
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
- Location: North Fort Worth
Re: Texas Spring 2019
TheProfessor wrote:Wish I could send the Men in Women at the impacted weather offices some food. I know this is going to be a stressful day for them. They’re going to have their work cutout for them today.
Can probably call in a pizza delivery or something.
0 likes
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2019
@SvrWxChaser — Currently sitting in #Snyder, #Oklahoma awaiting for storms to fire. Latest balloon data showing the delay in storms is only going to assist in upping the severity of this event. Hodos screaming violent high end EF-scale #tornadoes in #Oklahoma. #okwx
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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