Texas Winter 2023-2024

[rwfromkansas]

Awfully quiet with that Euro run. Lol.

That got my attention.

My hometown in KS looks to be on the southern end of the bigger snow, maybe 2-3 inches. Huge dry slot coming in today as well.

Hopefully we will have good luck in OK and TX with future chances before it warms up.

[gpsnowman]

From Steve McCauley

Scattered showers developing ahead of the line of storms to our west will keep us in and out of the rain through lunchtime or shortly thereafter, and then the line will shift east of the Metroplex for the rest of the day with only a few spotty isolated showers popping behind the line. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.10" to locally over an inch here in the DFW area with a little heavier amounts to the east. Most Metroplex locations will be under an inch.
Some of the storms will bring brief heavy rain and some gusty winds in excess of 40 mph (though it will be a little on the windy side even without the storms).
And then we turn our attention to the weekend into early next week when a couple of waves of cold air move into the area. It should be relatively balmy on Thursday and then the first wave of cold air gives us a glancing blow on Friday. We will temporarily recover on Saturday afternoon and then the second wave moves in Sunday causing temperatures to fall to the coldest levels so far this season as we go into next week.
Although it will not be a repeat of February 2021 (how could it be, right?) we will likely see temperatures fall into the single digits and teens across north Texas. Due to the shallow nature of the Arctic air, which is often the case for locations this far south, precipitation would tend to favor ice rather than snow, but amounts cannot be predicted this far out. What we can say at this point is that the ice does not appear to be particularly heavy, but there really is no way of predicting how much to expect since it is still a week away.
To our north, across Oklahoma and Arkansas and points north, it will be more of a heavy snow event for the folks up there.
Now back to school stuff.

[WacoWx]

Its pretty early for the Stat Method to be jumping on.

[Edwards Limestone]

1.5" in my backyard this AM. That's a very impressive (and much needed) 3.75" since January 1st!

[Edwards Limestone]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1704672000/1705341600-K21KaPEj8Cc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1704672000/1705363200-79bK7ZCIFQs.png

impressive

[Cpv17]

1.5" in my backyard this AM. That's a very impressive (and much needed) 3.75" since January 1st!

Congrats! Happy for you!

[Ntxw]

Most of us would take that 0z Euro and run. Lets see what 12z has in store in another episode as the model turns.

[wxman57]

All models continue to have a different 500mb pattern for early next week. As you've noticed, the Euro is the only model with a southern stream disturbance moving across Texas next Mon/Tue, which is why it's the only model indicating any winter weather. We may have to wait until the weekend before there is good agreement in the models. The bad news is that none of the models indicates 80F+ weather over the next 10 days. Euro is predicting a hard freeze in Houston on the 16th, lighter freeze the 17th, then a warm-up. No winter weather here. I can tolerate those brief cold temps in my warm house.

[cheezyWXguy]

All models continue to have a different 500mb pattern for early next week. As you've noticed, the Euro is the only model with a southern stream disturbance moving across Texas next Mon/Tue, which is why it's the only model indicating any winter weather. We may have to wait until the weekend before there is good agreement in the models. The bad news is that none of the models indicates 80F+ weather over the next 10 days. Euro is predicting a hard freeze in Houston on the 16th, lighter freeze the 17th, then a warm-up. No winter weather here. I can tolerate those brief cold temps in my warm house.

To be fair, the GFS does have the system too, but is faster and doesn't dig it as far south. But yes, agreed, I think we need a lot more convergence and consistency in model solutions before it's worth jumping onto.

[gpsnowman]

Most of us would take that 0z Euro and run. Lets see what 12z has in store in another episode as the model turns.

Okay I will bite. Is it colder and snowier for Texas? I really don't want freezing rain. I enjoy sleet but snow is where my heart is.

[cheezyWXguy]

Most of us would take that 0z Euro and run. Lets see what 12z has in store in another episode as the model turns.

Okay I will bite. Is it colder and snowier for Texas? I really don't want freezing rain. I enjoy sleet but snow is where my heart is.

A couple of maps from the run are posted on the previous page. Depicts a transition from wintry mix to snow for the dfw area

[cajungal]

Still hoping for a chance here in SE Louisiana for some winter fun before I have to wait again til next winter.

[gpsnowman]

Most of us would take that 0z Euro and run. Lets see what 12z has in store in another episode as the model turns.

Okay I will bite. Is it colder and snowier for Texas? I really don't want freezing rain. I enjoy sleet but snow is where my heart is.

A couple of maps from the run are posted on the previous page. Depicts a transition from wintry mix to snow for the dfw area

Thank you. Just saw them after reading the previous page of overnight posts.

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro is a tricky solution. The energy for that storm won't cross the Aleutians until later this week and won't cutoff and move ashore the Pacific NW until this weekend. The Euro keeps that energy dangerously close to a number of rotating TPVs, and any one of them could shear the system out. Low confidence op run with very little ensemble support.

[Ntxw]

GFS is trending towards the Euro route. Canadian favors the western TPV. They all get colder but don't agree which pieces take over.

[HockeyTx82]

O k i'm getting lost can someone please summarize specifically for northtexas where we are. What are we looking at in terms of next week? In terms of cold snow ice potential stuff like that and when.

[Ntxw]

Side note, line of storms rolling through metroplex. Heavy rain and thunder at the airport.

[Harp.1]

Both the GFS and CMC bring down the cold. Precip is the big question…

[Cpv17]

Both the GFS and CMC bring down the cold. Precip is the big question…

We have plenty of time to work on the precip part. Main thing is getting the cold.

[Gotwood]

O k i'm getting lost can someone please summarize specifically for northtexas where we are. What are we looking at in terms of next week? In terms of cold snow ice potential stuff like that and when.

I mean to summarize nobody knows anything for certain in terms of precipitation, the cold air seems a given but then again nobody knows how cold or how long it will be around.