ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hayabusa]

Beryl is VIS/SWIR right now, textbook September July cat 5 Caribbean cruiser.

https://i.imgur.com/jdp21bE.png

Super Typhoon Beryl

[Charleswachal]

Beryl is VIS/SWIR right now, textbook September July cat 5 Caribbean cruiser.

https://i.imgur.com/jdp21bE.png

Super Typhoon Beryl

WPAC switched places this year

[Hurricane2022]

Recon says that we have a 150 - 155 kt Super Typhoon.

[kevin]

Extrapolated pressure 928.2 mb with 18 kt, supports 927/150 or 927/155.

Beryl has basically reached its pressure MPI and somehow seems to exceed the wind MPI. An insane storm for too many reasons to a list at this point.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Okay, I know that some people (including me) were joking about this hitting MPI and being like Dorian near peak... I just wasn't expecting it to actually make a serious run at 150kt+. Had to close down and then re-open the page on like 2 different sites to make sure I didn't just hallucinate that recon data.

What an absolutely ridiculous system.

[Hurricane2022]

I'm still not sure if I'm hungover from my family's party yesterday or if I'm seeing a 155 kt hurricane moving through the Caribbean on JULY 2. This is the strongest storm in the atlantic since DORIAN, almost FIVE YEARS AGO.

[Charleswachal]

Okay, I know that some people (including me) were joking about this hitting MPI and being like Dorian near peak... I just wasn't expecting it to actually make a serious run at 150kt+. Had to close down and then re-open the page on like 2 different sites to make sure I didn't just hallucinate that recon data.

What an absolutely ridiculous system.

MPI shows 920ish for peak pressure and then cat 4 for peak winds. We obviously have to realize that a storm I guess theoretically can exceed this but it's crazy seeing it happen

[kevin]

Also note the 24.2C eye temperature, which is incredible for the Alantic. For comparison Dorian's eye temp during the 161FL/177SFMR pass was 23.6C.

[Charleswachal]

Winds as high as 196 knts found on that last dropsonde. At the surface it was 167 knots.

Based on this I think we can see them go 160 to 165 knts

[zzzh]

Winds as high as 196 knts found on that last dropsonde. At the surface it was 167 knots.

Based on this I think we can see them go 160 to 165 knts

1. 167kt was at 940mb, not surface.
2. These are instantaneous winds, not 1min sustained winds.

[Ian2401]

Winds as high as 196 knts found on that last dropsonde. At the surface it was 167 knots.

Based on this I think we can see them go 160 to 165 knts

1. 167kt was at 940mb, not surface.
2. These are instantaneous winds, not 1min sustained winds.

940mb is likely the sfc pressure

[Charleswachal]

Winds as high as 196 knts found on that last dropsonde. At the surface it was 167 knots.

Based on this I think we can see them go 160 to 165 knts

1. 167kt was at 940mb, not surface.
2. These are instantaneous winds, not 1min sustained winds.

The 167 knts which was at 940 MB is the surface level inside the eyewall. The pressure is only down to the 920s in the actual eye itself when in the eyewall pressure is dropping from the 970s outside the eyewall to the 920s inside so at that point 940 was the surface. I know they are instantaneous but this combined with the SFMR of 165 knts should give us at least a 160 knt storm.

[Keldeo1997]

You can add this sonde to the hall of fame. Almost 200kts just above the surface

[ThetaE]

MPI doesn’t consider the storm’s forward motion, and so it’s definitely plausible that winds in the right quadrants may exceed the MPI threshold given how fast Beryl is trucking along.

I don’t know of any caveats for the pressure MPI, though— approaching that is truly remarkable!

[Sciencerocks]

[kevin]

Beryl's pressure gradient is, like everything about this storm, incredible. Near the eye it's about 3.25 mb/km, which even surpasses the notorious pressure gradients of Megi & Dorian and basically only trails behind all-time greats like Patricia.

[Charleswachal]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/697996354537914448/1257640057439916092/Screenshot_197.png?ex=66852413&is=6683d293&hm=6411789918d028409e6fe8c8a41f5e3a6e6a581f67c86e4a972f724a9f3fde48&

You can add this sonde to the hall of fame. Almost 200kts just above the surface

This is a truly remarkable storm. Jamaica needs to be prepping for a massive storm!

[Ian2401]

Winds as high as 196 knts found on that last dropsonde. At the surface it was 167 knots.

Based on this I think we can see them go 160 to 165 knts

1. 167kt was at 940mb, not surface.
2. These are instantaneous winds, not 1min sustained winds.

940mb is likely the sfc pressure

stand corrected. looks like it wasn't reported as being a surface ob. still likely just above the sfc

[Charleswachal]

1. 167kt was at 940mb, not surface.
2. These are instantaneous winds, not 1min sustained winds.

940mb is likely the sfc pressure

stand corrected. looks like it wasn't reported as being a surface ob. still likely just above the sfc

I don't think you could get any closer to the surface. Pretty sure it's within 50 feet of the water.

[Hurricane2022]

Good morning, STY Beryl!