Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it hits the Yuctan then where it hits ever thing will be flaten. This will make Emily look like a depression.

[cycloneye]

201151
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENSINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN
FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...12 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 910 MB...26.87 INCHES.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 910 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

It seems the storm is to far south to not hit directly the Yucatan Peninsula.

[skysummit]

I don't know if she has enough time for the eye to clear out. If so, that's gonna big one big eye!

[cycloneye]

It seems the storm is to far south to not hit directly the Yucatan Peninsula.

If that occurs then it will be better for Florida as it will get there as a more weaker system.

[gatorcane]

i wonder if it's even going to turn until much later than anticipated.

[LaBreeze]

Could she possibly cross the Yucatan and enter the BOC? Thoughts anyone? Just wondering.

[skysummit]

Could she possibly cross the Yucatan and enter the BOC? Thoughts anyone? Just wondering.

One model did say that last night, but it wasn't a good model....as a matter of fact, it was an "antique" model that I was told should no longer be used.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the WV loop the flow is still pretty zonal across the U.S. so if this trough is going to come in, it betters start making a strong move.

Could this trough be overhyped? It sounds too much like a Nov/Dec-like trough to me.

[LaBreeze]

All mets around here are saying the trough will be strong enough to pick up Wilma. I'm praying for anyone who is in her path. I'm still recovering from Rita and will be doing so for quite some time.

[Brent]

The trough is gonna be powerful(massive cooldown, we're going from record highs today to below normal), the question is, will Wilma be far enough north to get picked up?

Remains to be seen.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE WILMA (AL242005) ON 20051020 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051020 1200 051021 0000 051021 1200 051022 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 85.2W 19.4N 86.5W 20.5N 87.7W 21.0N 88.3W
BAMM 18.3N 85.2W 19.4N 86.7W 20.1N 87.8W 20.4N 88.3W
A98E 18.3N 85.2W 18.9N 86.2W 19.9N 87.0W 20.7N 87.7W
LBAR 18.3N 85.2W 19.5N 86.3W 21.1N 87.1W 23.1N 87.1W
SHIP 125KTS 125KTS 129KTS 133KTS
DSHP 125KTS 125KTS 129KTS 133KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051022 1200 051023 1200 051024 1200 051025 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.8N 88.4W 19.7N 87.8W 19.1N 85.7W 22.2N 80.8W
BAMM 20.1N 87.6W 21.2N 85.2W 24.7N 81.1W 34.9N 70.2W
A98E 20.9N 88.1W 22.8N 88.0W 22.1N 86.4W 24.0N 81.0W
LBAR 25.5N 85.9W 33.0N 76.7W 39.7N 56.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 131KTS 111KTS 81KTS 48KTS
DSHP 131KTS 111KTS 71KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 85.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 84.0W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 82.8W
WNDCUR = 125KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 135KT
CENPRS = 910MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 110NM RD34NW = 150NM



Those BAM models at the 12:00z stall it over Yucatan.

[HURAKAN]

South Florida still under GUN!

[skysummit]

The trough is gonna be powerful(massive cooldown, we're going from record highs today to below normal), the question is, will Wilma be far enough north to get picked up?

Remains to be seen.

It will be a nice one. Our highs on Monday are supposed to be in the upper 60's and lows in the upper 40's way down here.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Bye bye Cancun if thats right...

[skysummit]

Is this the correct steering map to use for this storm? It says for TC MSLP <940.

[Brent]

Is this the correct steering map to use for this storm? It says for TC MSLP <940.

It looks current.

I don't think the map goes any lower than 940 mb.

[skysummit]

Is this the correct steering map to use for this storm? It says for TC MSLP <940.

It looks current.

I don't think the map goes any lower than 940 mb.

Ok, thanks Brent. Just wanted to make sure I was looking at the right stuff. Damn it's foggy down here today!

[Brent]

Yep... it's current as of 5am EDT. I opened up the link.

[skysummit]

Boy, it's really butting up against that dry air right now. Welcome to the desert Wilma.