Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[mtm4319]

[craptacular]

463
URNT14 KNHC 271757
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01168 10730 13163 10808 20029
02170 20732 23160 20907 20023
03171 30734 33150 31204 23023
04173 40736 43150 41006 20022
05176 50737 53146 51007 22016
MF168 M0730 MF030
OBS 01 AT 16:49:10Z
OBS 05 AT 17:06:00Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 20030
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01175 10740 13146 11105 27011
02179 20744 23150 21008 06020
03181 30746 33150 30908 09016
04183 40748 43153 40808 09017
05184 50750 53158 50808 09017
06186 60752 63159 60808 09020
MF178 M0740 MF024
OBS 01 AT 17:18:10Z
OBS 06 AT 17:49:10Z
OBS 06 SFC WND /////
AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 10

[HurricaneHunter914]

I can't beleive one strip of land almost disappated Ernesto too. Looks like Florida can relax now.

[wxman57]

guys can the recon plane get a fix of pressure and winds at 10000 feet??? I didn't think it was accurate at that altitude..Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Sure, it's done all the time. Accurate to within a millibar or two.

[Wthrman13]

I think it's almost certainly internal processes at work here. The original center was very tight, and could have been more easily disrupted by interaction with land, or it could have collapsed on its own accord, as in an ERC (not saying that an ERC actually occurred here though).

I see nothing other than land interaction to keep the system from making a comeback in the near term, however.

[WindRunner]

Dang, that's barely a TS. Excuse me, but .

Max FL wind of 30kts?! That's barely tropical depression intensity when reduced to sea-level! I usually don't make short posts like this, but I can't imagine they nailed the main core, but I don't know obviously. Goes to show how important internal processes are in storm organization and intensity, since shear nor dry air seem to be strong enough to cause such a rapid weakening.

They haven't touched the N or NE side yet, where we should see noticably stronger winds. The path they have taken so far hasn't exactly been through any of the traditional wind maxima in a circulation.

[Evil Jeremy]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB!!!!!!! its a TS alright.

[LanceW]

Where did you get that it has around 35-40 MPH winds.
Link????

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/17:54:50Z
B. 17 deg 45 min N
073 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 3143 m
D. 35 kt
E. 135 deg 015 nm
F. 186 deg 030 kt
G. 136 deg 075 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 10 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3052 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12 45/ 7
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 07
MAX FL WIND 30 KT SE QUAD 16:49:20 Z
SFC CNTR 191 / 21 NM FROM FL CNTR
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
RADAR BANDING EVIDENT

[WxGuy1]

.I think they just decided on a place and called it the center

I don't think it's even right to insinuate that they "just decided on a place and called it the center". This is a scientific mission, and they wouldn't just toss a coin and say "yup, let's call this the center".

Now, there may be more than one "center" in Ernesto, so they may have found a local pressure minimum, but not the "main" center. Just a guess... we'll see as they continue to investigate. I'm not sure land interaction has caused this degree of weakening should it be confirmed that the VDM intensity is the actual intensity. I'm thinking there was some sort of 'internal process' (ain't that a dubious excuse LOL) or reorganization that has caused this.

[caneman74]

thx wxman57 I didn't know that.. What about the winds though?? Did they drop some dropsnodes into the storm to get the wind reading??

[WindRunner]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB!!!!!!! its a TS alright.

But they completely ignored the recon reports - they want them to verify the winds/1007mb pressure on a second pass before screaming a short-term "storm cancel" to the public. Notice the "may have weakened" part in the headline?

[storms in NC]

It must be over Haiti. It will not lose much more cause of the water it has to work with around the storm. Then when it leaves Of the coast of Haiti watch it fire Back up.

[Pebbles]

something about this recon is irking me... can't quite put my finger on it. Think I will wait for at least another pass or two and prob another VDM

[Derek Ortt]

This reminds me of Claudette's collapse in the Caribbean 3 years ago

[WindRunner]

thx wxman57 I didn't know that.. What about the winds though?? Did they drop some dropsnodes into the storm to get the wind reading??

Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. They haven't as of yet on this mission, but the traditional method for figuring wind speeds is the same as that for pressure: extrapolation.

[fci]

Oh, OK, I did not see the recon data you were referring to.
Maybe Haiti is having the effect we hoped it would.
Good news!

[Dean4Storms]

It appears I was pretty close with that center wxman57.

[Droop12]

Maybe I should take a break because IMO he looks better now than he ever has, sure he lost some convection, but that happens.

[stormtruth]

Haiti's mountains have temporarily crushed Ernesto! But it will be back over warm water soon where it can intensify again. Any flooding/damage reports from Haiti? Is that in another thread?

[jabber]

He did not last long.... What do you think the chances are of coming back at this point?