Bonnie Advisories

[Guest]

I'm wondering how much the track will shift east or west on the next advisory.

[CaptinCrunch]

looks like Bonnie getting ripped apart, may wind up a TS or Depression.

[adelphi_sky]

I agree. Just look at how they forecast winter storms. One day we're getting a foot of snow, 24 hours later, no snow and sunshine. A lot can happen in 24 hours. So I can't imagine the errors involved in a 120 hr forecast.

BTW, I used to want hurricanes to come our way (DC area). Well, Isadore was enough for me even though by the time she came to DC she was a TS. Blew branches off around my house and knocked a tree onto my deck. It's no fun when you're a homeowner.

[ColdFront77]

No polite way to put this, but you sure you're looking at the right storm? Using hi-resolution visible loops, like the one at GHCC?

That's a lot more polite than other things you MAY say.

Interpreting systems differently happens, which shouldn't be a bad thing.

[Brent]

I'm wondering how much the track will shift east or west on the next advisory.

They say if the guidance is the same, it will go a "little" east and could also be faster(earlier landfall).

[michaelwmoss]

Let's keep watching both of them though. My Sister In Law Lives in Rosharon Texas Which is just an Hour from the coast. A big enough storm could make a sizable impact on where she lives at

[cycloneye]

Welcome to the board.About the plane investigating Charley they found this afternoon that the pressure has lowered to 999 mbs and found pretty strong winds at flight level.But they will continue to make different passes this evening to take more data.

[wayoutfront]

LOOKS LIKE SHE BOUNCED OFF A BRICK WALL

[chris_fit]

Channel 8 news in Tampa Bay say the new model runs for Charlie are "interesting" and "scary"

~Chris

[seaswing]

NW of Gainesville here, looks like it could be kinda close!!

[Hyperstorm]

If you look carefully in latest vis loops, you can see upper-level clouds (outflow) beginning to radiate NW-ward from the center of circulation. This could suggest that the northerly shear is beginning to relax. Just a thought...

Just what I was about to post. I don't understand where DT gets that NHC jumped the gun?? Recon flew into her and found a warm core closed low with approx. 50kt winds. Although she is small, she developed from a TW with no baroclinic influence and so far has deepened somewhat with a phase of weakening due to shear and possibly some dry air entrainment, even a Cat 3 hurricane can do this. True, she looks ragged right now but she is about to enter the area of most favorability that she has seen thus far except when she was in the Yuc. channel. Baroclinicity may come into play eventually, but likely not until around landfall in which time she could be a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane. I don't see any validity with your claim, period!

Maybe he can't remember TC Tracy in 1974 off the coast of Australia. That storm had TS force winds extending AFAR..........yeah right!.........20 Nautical Miles!

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 102053
97779 20534 30141 69800 03100 13024 26238 /0008 41225
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 19

14.1n-69.8w They are SE of the center now.

[adelphi_sky]

Wouldn't it be great if there was a java page that updated every 5 minutes on teh position and heading of the OBS plane with updated stats as well? Hey, we sent a man to the moon, it's definitely possible.

[Guest]

If you look at the visible satellite it looks like Bonnie has split, and there are two spins, one is where the NHC plots it at roughly 25 lat 90 long but I see something that looks like a LLC about 100miles SW of the NHC postion of Bonnie. Is this due to out flow boundries and whatever else I have no clue about?

Thanks

[Trader Ron]

Bonnie never had a grip...

[tallywx]

It looks to be mid-level...the remnants of the thunderstorms that had been over Bonnie's circulation, and the component of Bonnie's circulation that continued moving westward when she quite rapidly changed direction to N. I think Bonnie may begin to strengthen after this MLC continues sliding away. For one thing, the outflow this MLC is producing is shearing the center of Bonnie. This may change soon.

[goodlife]

Bonnie does look pretty pathetic!!

[dixiebreeze]

going on??!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Brent]

Dixie... you need to monitor Charley VERY VERY closely. The NHC track takes it directly over you on Saturday. Bonnie is looking like it's on life support.

[MGC]

That darn shear just won't go away......MGC