Florida Weather

[FlaWeatherDude]

"The front does little for the
temperatures across the area, but it should bring in slightly
drier air, which will help bring down the apparent temperatures
for at least a few days by 5 to 10 degrees."

That's a big change forecasted by NWS Miami for this upcoming week.

Yep by Friday Central Florida should see dewpoints in the 40's and 50's and you should see dews somewhere between 55-60! But next week we could see something in the Caribbean heading northwards(Epsilon?)! Whether it hits you(then up the East Coast) or moves over Cuba, the Bahama's, then OTS is anyone's guess!

[Hurricane Alexis]

"The front does little for the
temperatures across the area, but it should bring in slightly
drier air, which will help bring down the apparent temperatures
for at least a few days by 5 to 10 degrees."

That's a big change forecasted by NWS Miami for this upcoming week.

Yep by Friday Central Florida should see dewpoints in the 40's and 50's and you should see dews somewhere between 55-60! But next week we could see something in the Caribbean heading northwards(Epsilon?)! Whether it hits you(then up the East Coast) or moves over Cuba, the Bahama's, then OTS is anyone's guess!

I'll hope for a nice cool down with no tropical threats the rest of the season.

[NDG]

Three weeks since the official start to Autumn, Six weeks since the start of Meteorological Autumn and it still feels like summer out there. The models have been trending warmer for this weekend into the following week.
Better get used to it, La Nina is here.

[psyclone]

I'm afraid you're correct. I was foolish enough to buy into weekend refreshment which has largely been yanked. longer nights and shorter days represent the foot off the gas...but refreshing break tapping has been elusive since that tease at the end of sept and beginning of October. 91 at Tampa today must be close to if not another record...

[FlaWeatherDude]

On Friday a front should move through the state giving central Florida highs around 80/low 80's and lows around 60/low 60's for both Saturday and Sunday with dew points near 50 under Sunny skies.

By early next week we'll have coastal showers but by late next week we could very well be dealing with a major hurricane. Exact path still uncertain(Wilma path or a la Sandy) but it should definitely interact with the first significant trough of the season by the weekend before Halloween! La Nina's typically feature deep troughs in late O

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 0584834049

[FlaWeatherDude]

https://www.fox35orlando.com/weather/cold-front-to-move-through-central-florida-dropping-temperatures

[psyclone]

Those numbers are likely wishful thinking. NWS Ruskin has the coolest temp in Brooksville at 66 rather than 58. Should that be the case...the Bay area would be lucky to drop to 70...which by mid October standards is lame. and then it warms up thereafter. At least we're deep enough into fall that it's no longer stifling hot...but Fall appears to be on hold for the time being..

[TheStormExpert]

Even the -NAO can't do wonders.

Tidbit from this mornings NWS: Miami forecast discussion.

We all knew that the drier weather pattern eventually had to come
to an end, and ladies and gentleman today is that day. Model
consensus for today and tomorrow marked a general uptick from
previous forecasts in convection, especially during the afternoon
hours. With a surface high pushing off the mid-Atlantic coast and
into the western Atlantic, surface winds will continue to veer to
a more easterly component. At the same time, mid-upper level
ridging offshore will support more of a southwesterly component
aloft. This will ultimately lead to a couple of things:

1. An increase in moisture and low-level convergence to support
the aforementioned uptick in convection across South Florida, and

2. Steering flow to have a more SW/SSW to NE/NNE movement, albeit
on the slower side.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/FLClimateCenter/status/1317070474044674048

[gatorcane]

Who thought the rainy season was over? Not so fast looking at the deep convection blowing up over the Everglades

[TheStormExpert]

Who thought the rainy season was over? Not so fast looking at the deep convection blowing up over the Everglades

The mean date that it ends is today, but you’d never know going by dew points still well into the 70’s. Maybe the front currently forecasted to move into or through South Florida on the 26th/27th will put an end to it?

[NDG]

To make things worst the GFS ensembles now show the NAO to go positive starting next week and for the PNA to stay negative to neutral at the most.
So don't believe any models showing a strong cold front to come across FL in the 7-14 day range.

[psyclone]

It looks like the cold weather will remain bottled up in the northern plains/upper lakes as we close out October with milder conditions on the east coast. At least it is too late to be miserably hot. I can work with above normal temps now..

[TheStormExpert]

It looks like the cold weather will remain bottled up in the northern plains/upper lakes as we close out October with milder conditions on the east coast. At least it is too late to be miserably hot. I can work with above normal temps now..

We currently have a -NAO but the -PNA is likely making things too progressive. Hopefully we have a cooler first half of November unlike last year.

[TheStormExpert]

To make things worst the GFS ensembles now show the NAO to go positive starting next week and for the PNA to stay negative to neutral at the most.
So don't believe any models showing a strong cold front to come across FL in the 7-14 day range.

What’s your take on the potential Caribbean mischief in regards to Florida?

[toad strangler]

It looks like the cold weather will remain bottled up in the northern plains/upper lakes as we close out October with milder conditions on the east coast. At least it is too late to be miserably hot. I can work with above normal temps now..

We currently have a -NAO but the -PNA is likely making things too progressive. Hopefully we have a cooler first half of November unlike last year.

Not likely in a La Nina regime

[TheStormExpert]

It looks like the cold weather will remain bottled up in the northern plains/upper lakes as we close out October with milder conditions on the east coast. At least it is too late to be miserably hot. I can work with above normal temps now..

We currently have a -NAO but the -PNA is likely making things too progressive. Hopefully we have a cooler first half of November unlike last year.

Not likely in a La Nina regime

La Niña or not that doesn’t determine whether or not we’ll have cooler weather. Take December 2010 for example, was a La Niña and was record cold for the state. ENSO does not drive the teleconnections.

[toad strangler]

We currently have a -NAO but the -PNA is likely making things too progressive. Hopefully we have a cooler first half of November unlike last year.

Not likely in a La Nina regime

La Niña or not that doesn’t determine whether or not we’ll have cooler weather. Take December 2010 for example, was a La Niña and was record cold for the state. ENSO does not drive the teleconnections.

Dream up whatever you want. Not likely. THis winter in FL

[TheStormExpert]

Not likely in a La Nina regime

La Niña or not that doesn’t determine whether or not we’ll have cooler weather. Take December 2010 for example, was a La Niña and was record cold for the state. ENSO does not drive the teleconnections.

Dream up whatever you want. Not likely. THis winter in FL

Obviously we’ll likely never see snow again in this part of the state, but colder weather is pretty much certain each year.

Even with the ENSO flirting with El Niño the last two winters we saw warmer than average winters. Like I said, you need the -NAO/+PNA combo to funnel cold air down the peninsula. The wind just has to be coming from the NW or NNW straight down the continent.

[NDG]

To make things worst the GFS ensembles now show the NAO to go positive starting next week and for the PNA to stay negative to neutral at the most.
So don't believe any models showing a strong cold front to come across FL in the 7-14 day range.

What’s your take on the potential Caribbean mischief in regards to Florida?

I do think we will end up with a system in the Caribbean before October ends with this very warm and moist environment still hanging around from the southern GOM/FF/Bahamas down to the Caribbean, whether is a threat to FL is a 50/50 at this time, IMO.
This kind of pattern forecasted by the Euro ensembles does calls my attention for a threat to FL if it comes to fruition.