ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[blarg2]

I don't see any shear. I see a system blowing up - basically coming back from nothing. The NHC has always been for this system. They are the most important people in this hurricane forecasting business. Ignore them and you will likely eat crow.

[Sanibel]

This is just my take on the system...some feedback would be appreciated.

The arrow point shape to the system yesterday was 94L interacting with the upper trough border WX57 mentioned. I think part of the convection was due to this interaction but part was self-generated by 94L. If 94L holds true to previous tendencies we should see even better flaring and organization tonight.

It shouldn't pass by Grenada until later tonight at this speed.

The southern inflow is obviously more like a band now.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't see any shear. I see a system blowing up - basically coming back from nothing. The NHC has always been for this system. They are the most important people in this hurricane forecasting business. Ignore them and you will likely eat crow.

I never said I was ignoring them, nor did I say I didnt think it could develop. I dont know if it has a closed LLC, but based on visible loops it looks possible. And currently the system is probably under 10-15kt of shear, if not possibly more, with conditions gradually worsening for maybe 2-3 days before improving in the west carib. Besides...the NHC has been wrong before...its not like theyre perfect. But I still pay attention to them because they are the most reliable hurricane forecast agency in the US. (as opposed to weather.com or accuweather)

[HurricaneRobert]

NHC thinks a tropical depression could be forming.

[tolakram]

I think it's about to go poof.

I see what appears to be a few outflow boundaries but only time will tell if there's anything underneath that convection to sustain it, or if it's yet another good looking but dud invest.

[txwatcher91]

I agree it is about to go poof, latest visible shows the deep convection waning and high clouds over where the LLC is supposed to be at, but I don't see one. IR makes it look better because of the high thin clouds, but in reality convection is diminishing quickly.

The other day I was more bullish because it had a LLC but not convection, but now it doesn't appear to have one.

[Sanibel]

I agree it is about to go poof, latest visible shows the deep convection waning and high clouds over where the LLC is supposed to be at, but I don't see one. IR makes it look better because of the high thin clouds, but in reality convection is diminishing quickly.

Which is exactly what it did yesterday and the day before, before it rebounded into this improved present shape. Late tonight should be interesting (again).

This is a typical Caribbean diurnal pulse preceeding another strengthening phase.

[gatorcane]

I think the plane is going to find a close circulation right around where the deep red blob on the IR has been sustaining. My visual inspection shows that a possible close circulation may exist there or is trying to form:

Look at 13N, 58W.

[HurricaneRobert]

It would be a bit to the east where it appears to be rotating, wouldn't it? Convection is waning over the red blob, but I see it building up everywhere else.

[vacanechaser]

I think the plane is going to find a close circulation right around where the deep red blob on the IR has been sustaining. My visual inspection shows that a possible close circulation may exist there or is trying to form:

Look at 13N, 58W.

may be a little further south than that but i think you may be right... and i dont see any outflow bounderies like a few have said... i see nothing like that at the surface.... may find a circulation open to the south or south west i think for now...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Ivanhater]

I think the plane is going to find a close circulation right around where the deep red blob on the IR has been sustaining. My visual inspection shows that a possible close circulation may exist there or is trying to form:

Look at 13N, 58W.

Thats the area I have been watching as well gator...That area is where the convection continues to originate and I believe the inflow bands are feeding into...

[txwatcher91]

Which is exactly what it did yesterday and the day before, before it rebounded into this improved present shape. Late tonight should be interesting (again).

You can't get a tropical storm to form if the convection fires up at night and fizzles the next day, you have to have an area of decent convection that maintains for at least 24 hours to develop an LLC. Here is the visible, alot of high thin clouds and no apparent LLC that I can see. Recon will tell the story, and I think they will find an open wave.

[cheezyWXguy]

Which is exactly what it did yesterday and the day before, before it rebounded into this improved present shape. Late tonight should be interesting (again).

You can't get a tropical storm to form if the convection fires up at night and fizzles the next day, you have to have an area of decent convection that maintains for at least 24 hours to develop an LLC. Here is the visible, alot of high thin clouds and no apparent LLC that I can see. Recon will tell the story, and I think they will find an open wave.

yeah...if recon does find a closed llc, they will likely call it a td for appearance purposes, whether they find 40mph winds or not. However, if it does not form now, I believe it may form later tonight, and if even not then, then when it reaches the western caribbean.

[vacanechaser]

Which is exactly what it did yesterday and the day before, before it rebounded into this improved present shape. Late tonight should be interesting (again).

You can't get a tropical storm to form if the convection fires up at night and fizzles the next day, you have to have an area of decent convection that maintains for at least 24 hours to develop an LLC. Here is the visible, alot of high thin clouds and no apparent LLC that I can see. Recon will tell the story, and I think they will find an open wave.

if you animate that iamge, you can see a circulation at the surface through the thin clouds and the area between the blob and that feeder band to the east... its there... now i just dont think it is a closed circulation yet... but there is something going on at the surface...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[PTrackerLA]

You can get a tropical cyclone if the hurricane finders find a west wind, bottom line.

[txwatcher91]

Which is exactly what it did yesterday and the day before, before it rebounded into this improved present shape. Late tonight should be interesting (again).

You can't get a tropical storm to form if the convection fires up at night and fizzles the next day, you have to have an area of decent convection that maintains for at least 24 hours to develop an LLC. Here is the visible, alot of high thin clouds and no apparent LLC that I can see. Recon will tell the story, and I think they will find an open wave.

if you animate that iamge, you can see a circulation at the surface through the thin clouds and the area between the blob and that feeder band to the east... its there... now i just dont think it is a closed circulation yet... but there is something going on at the surface...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Well, I still don't see what you see, but if it is there it is extrememly weak. Derek even said he sees no circulation and that is was likely interacting with a trough.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Which is exactly what it did yesterday and the day before, before it rebounded into this improved present shape. Late tonight should be interesting (again).

You can't get a tropical storm to form if the convection fires up at night and fizzles the next day, you have to have an area of decent convection that maintains for at least 24 hours to develop an LLC. Here is the visible, alot of high thin clouds and no apparent LLC that I can see. Recon will tell the story, and I think they will find an open wave.

yeah...if recon does find a closed llc, they will likely call it a td for appearance purposes, whether they find 40mph winds or not. However, if it does not form now, I believe it may form later tonight, and if even not then, then when it reaches the western caribbean.

If they find 40+MPH winds and a closed circulation then it will be upgraded right to tropical storm. It doesn't matter how bad the system looks!

[Sanibel]

I think it should be said that if Caribbean conditions are similar to last year we should watch for Caribbean favorability and development. In other words like those which traversed the Caribbean last year, but the July version. Just a thought.

[Blown Away]

Let's assume 94L will develope soon and at this point the models are showing a shallow system moving W w/ the easterlies across the Caribbean. If 94L deepens will it move more WNW to NW? I'm thinking Bertha is still leaving a weakness in the ridge at this point.

[alienstorm]

Weak LLC 12.5N 56.2W closer to the feed from the south