Global model runs discussion

[StormClouds63]

I'm thinking the U.S. went from 1999 (Bret, category 3) until 2004 (Charley, category 4) w/o a major landfall. Going back to the late 1950's, that's the biggest gap I could come up with at first glance.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

HOU Discussion

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING A VISITOR IN THE CARIBBEAN ON
DAY 10 (SAT 25TH). ECMWF & GFS SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AT THAT TIME (ECMWF A DESERT SW RIDGE & ERN
TROF...GFS AN ERN RIDGE AND WRN TROF).

[caneseddy]

Interesting....anyone notice the 12Z Canadian had something popping up in between Cuba and the Keys next Wednesday and crossing over South Florida into the Atlantic next Thursday while intensifying (looks like a TS)

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... MLoop.html

[StormClouds63]

HOU Discussion

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING A VISITOR IN THE CARIBBEAN ON
DAY 10 (SAT 25TH). ECMWF & GFS SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AT THAT TIME (ECMWF A DESERT SW RIDGE & ERN
TROF...GFS AN ERN RIDGE AND WRN TROF).

KFDM:

I'm guessing the GFS set-up is similar to a Lili scenario with the high extending a good distance west and the approaching trough pulling it northward toward TX or LA? The ECMWF scenario would have western GOM protected by the high and the eastern trough pulling the system north or northeast toward Florida?

[Wx_Warrior]

[KFDM Meteorologist]

6Z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif

[flwxwatcher]

A tidbit from J.B. about the longer range.

In the longer term, the models are lining up for the action getting in closer to the U.S., and in fact the GFS is not shy about it all, as we have been seeing. Again, the details are still not in, but the pattern for a U.S. hit is evolving... in fact multiple hits into October, given the Euro idea of six more storms from October 1st on. Chances are we will have two or three more named before this month ends.

[ronjon]

12z GFS:

[JSDS]

Umm....I'm not liking that picture.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Not at all.

[Wx_Warrior]

At 336, I like my chances, I dont like the setup tho.

[barometerJane61]

Looks like the US's luck is about to run out as far as major landfalling hurricanes go .Feel bad for everyone living in coastal states

[frederic79]

I remember Georges 12 years ago made landfall in late September. Then, SST's in the gulf were around 81-82 degrees. Not so now and with high pressure in place for awhile, 85-86 will probably be present for most of the GOM through the end of the month.

[HurrMark]

Hmmm...not as hopeful of a hurricane-free 2010 for the US at this point...things could change, but the overall pattern is changing...

[Steve H.]

Not to worry. That was yesterday's 12Z. Today's now goes into N'orleans

[Steve H.]

Oh Sorry, someone refreshed it already!

[HurrMark]

Ike (2008) was the last significant landfall as a very exceptional category 2. Have to go back to Wilma in 2005 for a so-called "major" landfalling storm. Five years is likely an unusually high number of consecutive years w/o a U.S. landfall. Don't know what the record is for years between major U.S. landfalls?

The pattern this year has not only missed the U.S., but saved a lot of lives in the Caribbean. Bermuda may not be so lucky with Igor.

I looked this up, and the last time we went 5 years without a major hurricane making landfall was 1909-1915....and that was an EXTREMELY quiet period...6-7 storms each year during the lull, not including 1914, which had a whopping ONE TS.

I don't know what the rest of the season will bring, but this has been a really lucky stretch for the US. I cannot say if this is the luckiest period on record...I am wondering if there is a metric that measures that, but considering we went through 2007, 2008 and 2010 (so far)...all busy seasons...without a single major landfall (granted Ike and Gustav were very close) is probably very uncommon.

And really, the US has been very lucky from 1995 on, all things considered...yes, there have been some very devastating storms, but considering all the "potential" bullets, it really could have been a lot worse. A couple of months ago, I found out that between 1979-1994, a pretty quiet season, there were about as many major hurricanes making landfall as 1995-2010.

[Wx_Warrior]

The US has been lucky?

I recall getting hammered by Rita & Ike since 2005. Not been that lucky in SETX.

[HURRICANELONNY]

If the EURO is right. I think the U.S. is in the clear for late Sept. If the GFS is right. Well who knows.

[BigB0882]

If the EURO is right. I think the U.S. is in the clear for late Sept. If the GFS is right. Well who knows.

Not that any model is always right or always wrong but if I had to go with one based on THIS SEASONS success, I would definitely go with GFS.