ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

There was such intense convection wrapping around the center throughout the day that I'm not surprised this happened. What a difference 16 hrs makes, and I doubt this is finished intensifying.

Nope!

[cdavis6287]

Hoping this storm moves out east but looks like westerly...not good. I have family in the Palm Beaches and I'm central Fl east coast.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

with only 12 weeks left of the year, 2016 clearly wants to try and end with an event to put it in the record books as being the most zany unpredictable volatile year in recent memory.

[sponger]

Hoping this storm moves out east but looks like westerly...not good. I have family in the Palm Beaches and I'm central east coast.

My Dad is in SFL, but hopefully they will just get raked by the backside. Pretty safe up here in North FL, unless that ridge expands further and the trough is slower.

[cdavis6287]

with only 12 weeks left of the year, 2016 clearly wants to try and end with an event to put it in the record books as being the most zany unpredictable volatile year in recent memory.

Agreed! Allot of Fl impacts which sucks!

[Steve]

with only 12 weeks left of the year, 2016 clearly wants to try and end with an event to put it in the record books as being the most zany unpredictable volatile year in recent memory.

This isn't probably the end of the season, and probably not by at least a couple if not a few more systems. Looks pretty good, but the higher tops don't look like they're getting any colder, so maybe there is a slight possibility of it not getting too much stronger until the next pulse up. But the pressure might keep dropping.

[Hammy]

with only 12 weeks left of the year, 2016 clearly wants to try and end with an event to put it in the record books as being the most zany unpredictable volatile year in recent memory.

This isn't probably the end of the season, and probably not by at least a couple if not a few more systems. Looks pretty good, but the higher tops don't look like they're getting any colder, so maybe there is a slight possibility of it not getting too much stronger until the next pulse up. But the pressure might keep dropping.

Next burst has arrived based on the most recent satellite.

[wxmann_91]

with only 12 weeks left of the year, 2016 clearly wants to try and end with an event to put it in the record books as being the most zany unpredictable volatile year in recent memory.

This isn't probably the end of the season, and probably not by at least a couple if not a few more systems. Looks pretty good, but the higher tops don't look like they're getting any colder, so maybe there is a slight possibility of it not getting too much stronger until the next pulse up. But the pressure might keep dropping.

Next burst has arrived based on the most recent satellite.

Curacao radar also shows a couple of new convective cells (probably hot towers) developing in the eyewall.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

with only 12 weeks left of the year, 2016 clearly wants to try and end with an event to put it in the record books as being the most zany unpredictable volatile year in recent memory.

This isn't probably the end of the season, and probably not by at least a couple if not a few more systems. Looks pretty good, but the higher tops don't look like they're getting any colder, so maybe there is a slight possibility of it not getting too much stronger until the next pulse up. But the pressure might keep dropping.

i definitely dont think the hurricane season is over i just dont see another matthew happening if it makes landfall somewhere on the conus as a major hurricane after this

[Aric Dunn]

well an initial eye is starting to show up on IR.. morning should have a nice distinct borderline cat 3 ... if not one by 11am..

[Hammy]

well an initial eye is starting to show up on IR.. morning should have a nice distinct borderline cat 3 ... if not one by 11am..

Radar presentation a bit more ragged than earlier, seems to have either ingested a bit of dry air or mid-level shear, it might level off for now.

[Cyclenall]

I'm not surprised that Matt is exploding, I expected him to do so since the first advisory. The real question in my mind was will Matthew become a medium category 4 hurricane or not. When looking at satellite the interesting part to me is how fast it went from looking like junk to a spinning top form with an eyewall rapidly building. Just came out of nowhere instead of slowly stepping in that direction which means its structure was already in place.

[TimeZone]

Very impressive looking storm.

[wxmann_91]

May be leveling off for now. Eyewall looks a little ragged/choked off on the southwestern side so shear might be increasing again temporarily, just enough to disrupt the RI cycle.

[Blown Away]

 https://twitter.com/TTerryWFTV/status/781681374226886656

For CONUS sake, Euro OTS and no real W shift I can see in 06z guidance towards CONUS... Still close call...

[GCANE]

Looks like Matthew is going to start to slow down.

Steering flow is letting up:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

If Matt continues to intensify quickly into a major, it could potentially stall or crawl based on the latest flow analysis:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[jlauderdal]

nhc moved it west about 30 miles at the end of the track, makes perfect sense...no reason to go crazy as long as euro stays on the right side..as i suspected last night the g4 data would have minimal effect on the longer term track guidance and to be honest it didnt help answer the immediate question as to when and where the northerly turn should take place..nhc takes it as far w as 76, before it was 75.5 but they are going down the middle so the ultimate track could easily be left or right of that longitude..a us strike is a real possibility and i dont think the modeling can be trusted beyond cuba, if it shows a sofla strike today im not going out to buy 50 gal(5 days for the generator) of gas..if it shows 250 miles offshore im not calling the all clear

[Blinhart]

Were the models expecting this RI that has happened in the last 24 hours?

If I remember correctly storms this small and strong can possibly do whatever they want to a certain extent and not go as the models show. I could see this continue on a more Westerly path instead of making such a sharp turn North.

[NotoSans]

Eye seems to be clearing out as per the latest satellite imagery. I think there is a distinct probability that the next round of recon finds a major hurricane.

[GCANE]