ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Frank P]

Joe B just posted this on FB.. so I guess its out for the public... Looks like a Cat 2 into CC... never does make it back in the GOM..

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Joe B just posted this on FB.. so I guess its out for the public... Looks like a Cat 2 into CC... never does make it back in the GOM.

I agree with that 100% except I expect it to move slower over land maybe stall over texas

[stormlover2013]

going to be a horrible flooding event for houston, Beaumont, and Lake charles !!

[hd44]

All models have this going back over water except for the Ukmet... that has to be incorporated into the forecast.

[perk]

18z HWRF hits baffin bay south of corpus at 971mb

Very similar to the previous run.

[stormreader]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017082218&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=170

navy

Makes a late N move just offshore and then up into Matagorda Bay for landfall. Seems reasonable.

[Nimbus]

That is a much earlier posting by Joe B look at the graphics.
Hard to predict stall events but the track Joe outlined would still drive the storm surge with the same intensity as if it were offshore.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

navy

[weatherguy425]

That is a much earlier posting by Joe B look at the graphics.
Hard to predict stall events but the track Joe outlined would still drive the storm surge with the same intensity as if it were offshore.

Graphic may have been drawn earlier but tweet was late this afternoon. As you mentioned, with a lack of steering, post-landfall track is almost a fool's guess at this point. Though, more likely to ride just inland, than just offshore. Physics win. IMO.

*Not an official forecast*

[stormreader]

Joe B just posted this on FB.. so I guess its out for the public... Looks like a Cat 2 into CC... never does make it back in the GOM.

I agree with that 100% except I expect it to move slower over land maybe stall over texas

Also very reasonable. But look at the small margin of error between this making a S Texas landfall, and staying just offshore, or paralleling the coast, until a landfall along the upper reaches of the Texas coast. What I'm wondering about mainline models which have deep penetration of Texas, then an exit off coast, and very quick regeneration, is if they might be picking up on a Cat 2 storm just off E Texas and SW La, because perhaps, the storm at that point had never really made a landfall. Instead, it simply slow moved in the coastal waters and was running at about Cat 2 strength in the Sabine Pass area???? Big question.....Will GFS and Euro with in and out solution still be there in 24 hours or so??? Or will it look more like Joe B.'s or the UKMET or NAM, opr perhaps that Navy model?

[msp]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017082218&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=100

navy

same position at 96hrs as its 12z, just stronger now

[mcheer23]

First 00z models come out in an hour

[tolakram]

Joe B just posted this on FB.. so I guess its out for the public... Looks like a Cat 2 into CC... never does make it back in the GOM..
[ img]https://image.ibb.co/d5eNcQ/DH3fs_N5_Ws_AMkakv.jpg[/img]

I agree with that 100% except I expect it to move slower over land maybe stall over texas

I am not aware of any model that shows it stalling.

[bamajammer4eva]

Joe B just posted this on FB.. so I guess its out for the public... Looks like a Cat 2 into CC... never does make it back in the GOM.

Wonder why he thinks it would still be 55kts after spending a couple of days over land unless he is looking at the models that bring it back over water for his intensity and using his own track which keeps it inland.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Joe B just posted this on FB.. so I guess its out for the public... Looks like a Cat 2 into CC... never does make it back in the GOM.

I agree with that 100% except I expect it to move slower over land maybe stall over texas

I am not aware of any model that shows it stalling.

Umm I meant stallingredients as in what the GFS and EURO shows a one day stall then movement to the ENE towards LA

[Craters]

This run of the GFS doesn't have the GIV data in it. Hopefully we will get at least some of that data in the 0z runs tonight.

yes it does. About half the sondes make it into the 18Z run. Generally, drops before 21Z go into the 18Z run

Alyono -- Sorry to bring this up again, but I'm a little confused. I'm sure I'm missing something, but how can a drop at, say, 20Z go into a model run that's timestamped two hours earlier? Relativistic modeling, maybe?

Thanks...

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM:

[ROCK]

NAVGEM is more upper coast than mid. Hard to tell. They are all right around the same area now or very close

[Craters]

That NAM is very close to my thinking (maybe I should be embarrassed to say that....) Steve says the NAM is not worth much for a storm below 25N. Still below 25 N but not much now. Moving out of deep tropics shortly and into subtropics, and, more importantly, continental weather, with its diving troughs and shifting ridges. Also, the NAM a couple of days ago was the only model that had the storm pretty much in its current position coming off the northern coast of the Yucatan. When others had this bound for Tampico, NAM had storm move NW over the penninsula and come off as now off the NW corner. If not exact it was pretty close. It did not have this as a BOC storm, and its not.

Didn't the NAM (or was it the NAVGEM?) do a real good job on a storm near Florida last year, start to finish, when all of the other models missed it?

[Rgv20]

didn't see the 18Z NAM on here...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

Gotta be the eastern outlier... but interesting no less

That NAM is very close to my thinking (maybe I should be embarrassed to say that....) Steve says the NAM is not worth much for a storm below 25N. Still below 25 N but not much now. Moving out of deep tropics shortly and into subtropics, and, more importantly, continental weather, with its diving troughs and shifting ridges. Also, the NAM a couple of days ago was the only model that had the storm pretty much in its current position coming off the northern coast of the Yucatan. When others had this bound for Tampico, NAM had storm move NW over the penninsula and come off as now off the NW corner. If not exact it was pretty close. It did not have this as a BOC storm, and its not.

NAM has her moments but I will be careful paying too much attention to it when dealing with TC. I do remember that in 2010 it did a good forecast or maybe guess of Hermine but I would stick with the big three ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET for tropical cyclones.