ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1641 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:04 pm

Portaransas wrote:
GCANE wrote:Big 7.1 quake in Mexico.
Damage in Mexico City.

https://earthquake-report.com/2017/09/1 ... r-19-2017/

I hope that and Maria doesn't destabilize the Carib Plate.



I almost just posted the same thing. There have been studies that suggest a causal relationship between low pressures during hurricanes and the triggering of earthquakes. Of course it could be coincidental, but it's worth considering due to the proximity of Maria to the southern boundary of the Carribean plate and the earthquake which was just to the north of it. That would be very interesting to look at.

Also worth noting that Mexico had an 8.1 September 8th just off its pacific coast (very close to Carribean plate boundray) as Irma was a Cat 5 in the Carribean (at that time north of Puerto Rico).

Interestingly, the big 8.0 Mexico City earthquake of 1985 happened right around the same time as Hurricane Gloria began to intensify.

Regardless, these tragedies are human tragedies and my heart goes out to the people affected in Mexico and the Carribean.


Also, a lot of speculation on solar activity relationship with quakes.
A major sunspot is about to swing into earth-facing position.
The same one that created the top-end X flare a couple weeks ago.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1642 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:05 pm

Now we need to start watching if we can get some wobbles that can somehow spare Puerto Rico the full wrath of Maria. It is doubtful given the unanimous model consensus but enough of a wobble left or right could make a difference.

By the way models have done quite well with Maria on track, they showed Puerto Rico in the cross hairs days ago...
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1643 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:06 pm

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1644 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:07 pm

drezee wrote:Let me give some real-time data:
With current recon fix, Maria will have to turn to 309° for the center to pass directly over San Juan. It is moving about 298° right now. Unless she turns quickly, PR will be in the eye and San Juan in the NE eyewall. Current heading gets the center of the eye near ponce...

Better chance to go farther S than N of the island now
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1645 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:07 pm

Image

Outer eye wall seems obvious on radar.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1646 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:08 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:Rain rate up to 75 mm/hr, no double wind max.
EWRC done.


yes there is.. and the ERC cant be done..

the NW quad winds on the double wind maxium are smaller but the SW to NE pass are still there. this one os going to take some time.



You're right, should have waited a little longer.

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1647 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:09 pm

FYI... ERCs typically take between 12-24 hours to complete. This one is just starting. It may not complete before a potential Puerto Rico landfall, but it will be close. It's concerning to see the pressure continue to fall like this with a secondary eyewall forming. Nothing is slowing it down for now.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1648 Postby TJRE » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:10 pm

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1649 Postby Meteorcane » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:11 pm

drezee wrote:
drezee wrote:Let me give some real-time data:
With current recon fix, Maria will have to turn to 309° for the center to pass directly over San Juan. It is moving about 298° right now. Unless she turns quickly, PR will be in the eye and San Juan in the NE eyewall. Current heading gets the center of the eye near ponce...

Better chance to go farther S than N of the island now


Given how small the core is (unless of course this EWRC can finish before landfall/closest approach) a track just south of PR might save San Juan from significant wind impacts.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1650 Postby Raebie » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:11 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:Rain rate up to 75 mm/hr, no double wind max.
EWRC done.


yes there is.. and the ERC cant be done..

the NW quad winds on the double wind maxium are smaller but the SW to NE pass are still there. this one os going to take some time.


Yeah, didn't it just start?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1651 Postby Michele B » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:13 pm

Portaransas wrote:
GCANE wrote:Big 7.1 quake in Mexico.
Damage in Mexico City.

https://earthquake-report.com/2017/09/1 ... r-19-2017/

I hope that and Maria doesn't destabilize the Carib Plate.

Image



I almost just posted the same thing. There have been studies that suggest a causal relationship between low pressures during hurricanes and the triggering of earthquakes. Of course it could be coincidental, but it's worth considering due to the proximity of Maria to the southern boundary of the Caribbean plate and the earthquake which was just to the north of it. That would be very interesting to look at.

Also worth noting that Mexico had an 8.1 quake September 8th just off its pacific coast (very close to Caribbean plate boundry) as Irma was a Cat 5 in the Carribean (at that time north of Puerto Rico).

Interestingly, the big 8.0 Mexico City earthquake of 1985 happened right around the same time as Hurricane Gloria began to intensify.

Regardless, these tragedies are human tragedies and my heart goes out to the people affected in Mexico and the Caribbean.


I thought I read Mexico City had an 8.4 today. Can anybody verify?

EDIT: Sorry, just saw it's actually a 7.4.
Last edited by Michele B on Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1652 Postby Raebie » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:14 pm

No, 7.1
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1653 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:15 pm

plasticup wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
plasticup wrote:Is this actually late in the year? Mid-September is the peak. Top 10 most Intense of all Time:

Wilma, late Oct
Gilbert, mid Sept

Labor Day, early Sept
Rita, late Sept
Allen, early Aug
Camille, mid Aug
Katrina, late Aug
Mitch, late Oct
Dean, mid Aug
Cuba, mid Oct
Ivan, mid Sept




Im not sure about all but most of those are Caribbean or Gulf storms. I think hes talking about the Atlantic


Maria is in the Caribbean...


she wasnt born in the caribbean and hasnt quite reached it yet. It starts right around Haiti.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1654 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:16 pm

Michele B wrote:I thought I read Mexico City had an 8.4 today. Can anybody verify?


All the reports I see state 7.1. Now, let's please get back to the topic of Maria. Thank you.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1655 Postby Craters » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:24 pm

znel52 wrote:
Looks like it barfed out some outflow boundaries not sure if that's what they are though. It did this earlier in its life in generally the same part of the storm. Didn't seem to have any impacts on intensity though.


I was thinking that those outflow boundaries were from collapsing thunderstorm cells in the outer band. There's some dry air to the north that they might have ingested.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1656 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:24 pm

Close to 150mph surface in SW quadrant, wow.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1657 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:28 pm

Geez look at that outflow channel to the NW its all the way into the central bahamas .. I have not see many like that before..

ALso it is outflow like that where ridge pumping becomes quite possible

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rgb.html
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1658 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:36 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Geez look at that outflow channel to the NW its all the way into the central bahamas .. I have not see many like that before..

ALso it is outflow like that where ridge pumping becomes quite possible

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rgb.html



The west-northwest motion possibly takes it more towards southwestern Puerto rico could be a sign of that. This may get a little closer to the United states then the gfs is saying currently.
Last edited by Sciencerocks on Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1659 Postby dukeblue219 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:36 pm

Wow, those 196mph gusts are not far above the surface.

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 20:21Z

Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
927mb (Surface) 95° (from the E) 128 knots (147 mph)
926mb 95° (from the E) 129 knots (148 mph)
923mb 100° (from the E) 150 knots (173 mph)
921mb 105° (from the ESE) 166 knots (191 mph)
919mb 110° (from the ESE) 170 knots (196 mph)
906mb 125° (from the SE) 154 knots (177 mph)
899mb 130° (from the SE) 167 knots (192 mph)
884mb 135° (from the SE) 153 knots (176 mph)
874mb 145° (from the SE) 163 knots (188 mph)
869mb 150° (from the SSE) 146 knots (168 mph)
866mb 150° (from the SSE) 142 knots (163 mph)
850mb 155° (from the SSE) 146 knots (168 mph)
750mb 195° (from the SSW) 132 knots (152 mph)
698mb 215° (from the SW) 141 knots (162 mph)
Last edited by dukeblue219 on Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1660 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:36 pm

Another NE to SW pass coming up.
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