Texas Spring 2019

[TheProfessor]

Wish I could send the Men in Women at the impacted weather offices some food. I know this is going to be a stressful day for them. They’re going to have their work cutout for them today.

Can probably call in a pizza delivery or something.

That’s something I could possibly do with the Fort Worth office since I have relations with them, other offices would be tricky with security though. Anyways I’m completely broke until I find a job though so it’s just a wish lol.

[Texas Snowman]

First tornado warning of the afternoon issued for Dickens County and Motley County, a good ways to the S/SW of Childress.

[Texas Snowman]

And now a Tornado Warning for Custer, Ellis, and Roger Mills County in Oklahoma.

[CaptinCrunch]

First tornado warning of the afternoon issued for Dickens County and Motley County, a good ways to the S/SW of Childress.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
221 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Dickens County in northwestern Texas...
Southern Motley County in northwestern Texas...

* Until 245 PM CDT.

* At 221 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 4 miles northeast of Mcadoo, or 12 miles northwest of
Dickens, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Matador, Mcadoo and Roaring Springs.

[rwfromkansas]

Think it was the HRRR showing cells even over DFW and south. That seems hard to believe.

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSNorman — 2:34 PM - As expected, storms are developing rotation soon after they form. Conditions may change quickly so be alert for warnings and act quickly if you feel threatened.

[rwfromkansas]

How do you tell cap strength on mesoanalysis? I'm used to a blue area showing CIN on the CAPE product, but don't see that for DFW, yet there is cap.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Think it was the HRRR showing cells even over DFW and south. That seems hard to believe.

I don't think anything's going to form over us, there's no sunshine and the Cap is strong. Accuweather futurecast radar had a ton of popcorn storms beginning around 1230; but well we can all see how that turned out.

[Brent]

Think it was the HRRR showing cells even over DFW and south. That seems hard to believe.

I don't think anything's going to form over us, there's no sunshine and the Cap is strong. Accuweather futurecast radar had a ton of popcorn storms beginning around 1230; but well we can all see how that turned out.

Yeah it's cloudy here I'm not expecting much

[newtotex]

Think it was the HRRR showing cells even over DFW and south. That seems hard to believe.

I don't think anything's going to form over us, there's no sunshine and the Cap is strong. Accuweather futurecast radar had a ton of popcorn storms beginning around 1230; but well we can all see how that turned out.

Yeah it's cloudy here I'm not expecting much

Our main threat will come in the form of a squall line if I'm reading NWS FTW correctly. Depending on the dynamics that are still around the line could still be quite potent

[newtotex]

Going to be interesting if we see what we saw with 4/27/11 in Bama with the violent tornadoes having the horizontal vorticies

[Texas Snowman]

Mesoscale Discussion 0705
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Areas affected...southwest and central OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 199...

Valid 202046Z - 202145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 199 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado potential will likely increase across southwest OK during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several quasi-discrete supercells over the eastern TX Panhandle into the Low Rolling Plains. Additional storm development is possible over southwest OK ahead of the supercells located to the west. It is less clear regarding convective initiation and supercell development farther east towards the I-44/I-35 corridors (besides the Logan County supercell).

Surface analysis shows lower 70s surface dewpoints with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s over southwest OK to the middle 70s near OKC. A composite front/outflow-reinforced boundary is located across the eastern TX Panhandle arcing to the east-northeast to Stillwater, OK. South of this boundary, a very unstable to extremely unstable airmass will support intense updraft development with existing storms. KTLX VAD data shows a larger hodograph compared to KFDR's VAD (0-1km SRH of 300 and 200 m2/s2, respectively).

Short-term model guidance has trended away from a possible scenario of discrete storm development over south-central OK. The most probable scenario involves several tornadic supercells likely moving across southwest OK and approaching the I-40 corridor west of the OKC metro.

..Smith.. 05/20/2019

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34820037 35489911 36019800 35849744 34419956 34820037

[Cerlin]

The air in DFW is really warm and really humid...a little bit concerning with the delay of storms...

[WeatherNewbie]

The air in DFW is really warm and really humid...a little bit concerning with the delay of storms...

Yup, the sun is out in Richardson right now.

[drewser]

The air in DFW is really warm and really humid...a little bit concerning with the delay of storms...

Quite a bit of sunshine off & on this afternoon over by SMU, as well. Not sure if it has to be uninterrupted for that to be cause for concern with storm development?

[rwfromkansas]

Seems less busy in OK than expected, but I guess that’s good.

[gpsnowman]

The air in DFW is really warm and really humid...a little bit concerning with the delay of storms...

Quite a bit of sunshine off & on this afternoon over by SMU, as well. Not sure if it has to be uninterrupted for that to be cause for concern with storm development?

Same here in Irving but I think the cap is too strong currently preventing any evening development in DFW. The atmospheric set up is perfect for strong storms without the cap over our heads. The cap is annoying but can save the area from nasty storms with hail and tornados. That's fine with me. We should see some rain Tuesday morning before a dry streak begins. Some 90's possible later this week into next.

[Ntxw]

The air in DFW is really warm and really humid...a little bit concerning with the delay of storms...

Quite a bit of sunshine off & on this afternoon over by SMU, as well. Not sure if it has to be uninterrupted for that to be cause for concern with storm development?

Same here in Irving but I think the cap is too strong currently preventing any evening development in DFW. The atmospheric set up is perfect for strong storms without the cap over our heads. The cap is annoying but can save the area from nasty storms with hail and tornados. That's fine with me. We should see some rain Tuesday morning before a dry streak begins. Some 90's possible later this week into next.

It would take more than a little sun peaking through. You also really need to heat it up. Usually this phrase is most useful when cool in the morning and showers, then some sun destabilizes. Air is already juiced up to begin with but cinh.

[Texas Snowman]

383
WFUS54 KLUB 202327
TORLUB
TXC125-210000-
/O.NEW.KLUB.TO.W.0023.190520T2327Z-190521T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Dickens County in northwestern Texas...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 627 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
over Spur, moving northeast at 40 mph. A second strong rotation
was located 4 miles south of Dickens.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
destruction is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
Spur, Dickens and Afton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3349 10103 3382 10083 3360 10052 3342 10068
3340 10092
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 225DEG 35KT 3348 10089

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.75IN

$$


--

[Texas Snowman]

@spotternetwork — Spotr 14 miles SSW of DUMONT, TX @ 23:47 UTC TOR>-Very Large Rain Wrapped Tornado just passed through Dickens.