ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS:
https://i.imgur.com/sRovYMv.png

Not good. I mentioned this track before and I do not like what I am seeing. Any SW shifts could start to look like this:

1900 Galveston Hurricane Track:

https://i.imgur.com/CCwBPB7.jpg

Source: Wikipedia

Damn. That's eerily similar...

[bohai]

Just saw Rita’s track and this thing almost looks like a carbon copy if it plays out. Maybe slightly more south.

Was in Houston when Rita was forecast to come in. Predictions were for 150 mph winds jst to the west of the city (Katy) so massive evacuations began. It took us 12 hrs to fo about 200 miles but 8 hrs of that was to go about 30 miles. Glad it turned toward the east. South Texas along the coast is very flat so nothing to knock winds down so to speak.

[bella_may]

I’d say somewhere between Destin and Baton Rouge this will make landfall

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON looks like a panhandle landfall for Laura:

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS maybe a bit more N and stronger vorticity through 24 hours:

[Blown Away]

18z GFS initialized @5pm position, so if COC reforms this run will be a little off. 12z & appears 18z are slower slightly with Laura.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 48:

[DestinHurricane]

GFS stronger and slower.

[SouthernBreeze]

18z GFS initialized @5pm position, so if COC reforms this run will be a little off. 12z & appears 18z are slower slightly with Laura.

It may not bee too far off, as NOAA's discussion mentions they're having difficulty locating center

[Steve]

18z ICON looks like a panhandle landfall for Laura:
https://i.imgur.com/qdGNiWz.png

That's a much different scenario overall than it's been showing since last week. It keeps both systems weak which it often has done, but 14 is way farther east coming in here with Laura moving in near Navarre Beach. Definitely some changes have been happening with the models today. 18z and especially 00z could change a lot of things or they could clarify. Will the hurricane models be right? The b-tier ones? Euro/GFS? I don't know. Though the plots look like there is fairly reasonable consistency, things have changed a bit. Prior to the 18z runs, it appeared that southern Alabama had Laura's name on it the last 3-4 cycles. And then 14 has kind of spread out a little from Port Arthur a bit farther south. Obviously that's not all the models and certainly not all the ensembles among specific models that show wide spreads. But it could be that potential threats are evolving. I felt like New Orleans was likely to fall within the middle of two landfalling Gulf systems with maybe some extreme outer fringe stuff. And now, there's almost a worst case scenario. Gonna be a long weekend!
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

As for HWRF/HMON, ? I don't know. They make a lot of close to perfect hurricanes in their runs. But when a system gets down into the 920's, it's not fooling around. That's getting into catastrophic levels. HWRF would clobber much of the Atchafalaya Basin.

What's really cool with both of these systems but also scary is that we really don't know 5 days from both landfalls what is going to be landfalling and where. Times 2.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Slower & bit N... Maintains a TS to this point... We will see if a slower moving Laura moves more E or pushed farther W in GOM??

[TallahasseeMan]

Strongest run by the GFS through the Florida straits thus far, what a colossal failure by both the GFS and Euro with this system.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 66 hrs in Straits as TS... HP not as strong, maybe more E in the GOM after 66 hrs?

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 72:

[DestinHurricane]

18z GFS... Slower & bit N... Maintains a TS to this point... We will see if a slower moving Laura moves more E or pushed farther W in GOM??

IMO probably west because it would allow ridge to build in. But we will see what model says.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Strongest run by the GFS through the Florida straits thus far, what a colossal failure by both the GFS and Euro with this system.

did anybody really think that a storm on this path in 2020 was going to "poof?"

[DestinHurricane]

[ColdMiser123]

Just a slightly stronger initialization this run resulted in a rapidly deepening hurricane on the GFS compared to an open wave at 12z.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS 90hr + trend from the most recent runs:

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Slower & bit N... Maintains a TS to this point... We will see if a slower moving Laura moves more E or pushed farther W in GOM??

IMO probably west because it would allow ridge to build in. But we will see what model says.

Interesting scenario, I’m thinking TD14 would erode ridge, but maybe it allows Laura to go under and W?