ATL: IAN - Models

[tolakram]

I don't believe that slowdown and weakening. The 500mb already corrected big time since last run but still moves trough out much faster than the euro. If it continues to correct then Ian should move east sooner and faster similar to the Euro. This assumes, of course, that the Euro has a better handle on the 500mb, which it usually does. Usually.

[eastcoastFL]

0z run

https://i.imgur.com/GAIV3vv.gif

Did the initialized position look good?

[ConvergenceZone]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573525430149255175



"If the GFS somehow does verify, I wouldn't be surprised if Ian only hits Florida as a tropical storm. It would be sheared apart completely before landfallThat said, I don't see much chance for the GFS to verify
-- Derek Ortt (@DerekOrtt) September 24, 2022"

That's why I'm rooting for the GFS, as Derek mentioned above it would more than likely be sheared apart to just tropical storm status by landfall if the GFS verifies... Of course I'd want it to move fast so that nobody gets flooded........... Lots of respect for Derek. He was great with the tropics when he use to visit this board, prior to him becoming a meteorologist. Unfortunately like he said, the GFS doesn't have much of a chance to verify and wxman is on board with this as well..........

[caneseddy]

Canadian leftmost outlier..landfalls in Panama City Beach

[MrJames]

UKMET 0z has landfall around Tampa but at no more than TS.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573527027101143053

[cheezyWXguy]

UKMET 0z has landfall around Tampa but at no more than TS.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573527027101143053

From what I’ve seen, the ukmet is…problematic. It will very occasionally get the track right but I can’t recall the last time it was even in the ballpark on intensity

[AxaltaRacing24]

UKMET 0z has landfall around Tampa but at no more than TS.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573527027101143053

From what I’ve seen, the ukmet is…problematic. It will very occasionally get the track right but I can’t recall the last time it was even in the ballpark on intensity

I last remember it making good calls in 2017, hard to believe how good the UK was compared to now.

[chargurl]

I see the GFS models being posted. Can someone post the EURO models please? To compare?

[CronkPSU]

I see the GFS models being posted. Can someone post the EURO models please? To compare?

should just start running right now...someone will post it as it loads

[cheezyWXguy]

I see the GFS models being posted. Can someone post the EURO models please? To compare?

should just start running right now...someone will post it as it loads

Too tired to post but EC-fast is out through hour 72 on tropical tidbits. Notable SW shift through that timeframe, though still unrealistically weak

[Bocadude85]

I see the GFS models being posted. Can someone post the EURO models please? To compare?

The 0z Euro-fast is into Charlotte Harbor/Sarasota in 120 hours

[CronkPSU]

 https://twitter.com/HurricanesJames/status/1573558346027880448

[djones65]

Does anyone remember Elena `85?
Very similar situation. Just couple weeks later!

[sponger]

It is clear that we are far from agreement but the risk of a stall near or on Florida seems to be increasing.

[chaser1]

0Z EURO doesnt appear quite as deep compared to the 12Z run.

[Blown Away]

00z ECMWF

[sponger]

Well that's the ugliest run yet! Euro not buying the stall at all!

[chaser1]

No suggestion of any stall with that run

[toad strangler]

I never bought into the GFS stall, all the way back to when it was floating around the western GOM. Doesn’t make sense in this setup.

Progressive, progressive, progressive.

[Keldeo1997]

Can someone just toss the GEFS into the trash?