MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO/EASTERN WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 222048Z - 222245Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
   WY/NORTHEAST CO REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR FOR A
   POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN
   WY/CO AT MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ATOP
   SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST TO THE FRONT
   RANGE AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND AN INITIALLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS INTO THE
   PLAINS PROVIDES UNCERTAINLY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
   THREAT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   IN ADDITION TO A CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WARM/DRY NATURE
   OF AIRMASS AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DCAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY
   DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
   WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CO AND WEST CENTRAL WY /RIVERTON/ THIS
   AFTERNOON VIA MEASURED GUSTS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
   
   39130502 40410551 42810614 44500666 44690508 43550434
   40500369 39110331 39040377

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL GA/CENTRAL AND SRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 222053Z - 222230Z
   
   STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS E CENTRAL
   GA/W CENTRAL SC...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING
   WINDS. NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED.
   
   STORMS ARE INCREASING INVOF REMNANT/ILL-DEFINED FRONT ATTM...WHERE
   AOB 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED.  WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW
   NEAR 40 KT FROM THE WNW...SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION IS
   SUPPORTING FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.
   
   THOUGH DURATION OF THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED/DIURNAL...A
   FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
   LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...
   
   33908318 33938186 33257918 32098073 33338355

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0939
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0414 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ORE/EASTERN WA INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID AND
   FAR WESTERN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 222114Z - 222315Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN WA/EASTERN ORE
   AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID INTO FAR WESTERN MT REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A
   POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   
   AT 2115Z...A SEVERE STORM IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN ID ALONG I-90
   EAST OF COEUR D ALENE. A RECENT INCREASE IS ALSO NOTED ROUGHLY NEAR
   I-82 IN SOUTH CENTRAL WA PER VOLUMETRIC RADAR. WITH AN OVERALL
   UPSWING OF AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED PER INCREASING
   FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINNING CIRRUS/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
   SUPPORT FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. RUC
   PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MUCAPES OF 1000-1500
   J/KG. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH 50 KT
   MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTLY FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
   SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
   
   47072011 48451822 48801580 47571421 44641430 43301661
   44251890 45091967

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0940
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375...
   
   VALID 222224Z - 222330Z
   
   ALREADY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO FURTHER DIMINISH ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST OK EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE
   WATCH 375 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 23Z WITH NO WW
   REISSUANCE.
   
   WITHIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS...SATELLITE/PROFILER TRENDS SUGGEST MCV
   ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVELY LOSING ITS CHARACTER
   WITH TIME. SOME PULSE-TYPE SEVERE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
   COMPOSITE OUTFLOWS IN UNPERTURBED/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...HOWEVER THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED REST OF THE EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   37959697 37909502 37529352 36679335 36329419 36599597
   36809670 37269707

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0558 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN NM...WRN CO...EXTREME ERN UT.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 222258Z - 230130Z
   
   POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ACROSS THIS
   REGION THROUGH AROUND 02Z.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT AREA WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING
   NEWD ACROSS SERN NV...SWRN UT AND AZ...FCST TO MOVE INTO THIS REGION
   BY AROUND 6Z.  AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...MIDLEVEL AIR MASS IS FCST TO
   DESTABILIZE FURTHER AS STRONG LARGE SCALE DPVA/ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS
   REGION.  AS THIS OCCURS...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   SRN/WRN PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA AND MOVE NWD TO NNEWD...INTO
   AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED BY EARLIER CONVECTION.  LARGE AREA OF
   CLOUDS/CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT IN VIS/REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY WILL SERVE
   COMPETING PURPOSES -- TO PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED
   DESTABILIZATION...BUT ALSO TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL NUMBER OF DAMAGING
   GUSTS OVER REGION BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY DENSE COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
   POCKETS OF RELATIVELY LOW-ELEVATION AIR MASS IN VALLEYS AND CANYONS
   NOT ALREADY STABILIZED BY PRIOR OUTFLOWS WILL HAVE INVERTED-V
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTING DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH.  OVER HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS...STRENGTHENING LOW-MIDLEVEL GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF
   TROUGH MAY BE BLENDED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FOR DAMAGING GUST
   POTENTIAL.  WRN EDGE OF MAIN CONVECTIVE PLUME SHOULD REMAIN E OF
   ROUGHLY AN ABQ...FMN...CEZ...CNY LINE...AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED SFC SWLY
   WIND SHIFT AND DRYING THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...
   
   40980684 38440602 37540548 37000575 37000599 35950602
   35930629 34860621 35320723 37570823 38930992 40860967

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN MT...WRN SD...CENTRAL/NRN
   WY...EXTREME SWRN ND.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 222350Z - 230215Z
   
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION
   THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH CORRESPONDING
   INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.  AREA WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SFC LOWS NEAR GTF AND NEAR CPR.
   QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE -- ALSO ACTING AS EFFECTIVE DRYLINE --
   EXTENDING SEWD FROM GTF SFC LOW ACROSS SERN CORNER MT TO NEAR RAP.
   CONFLUENCE/WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS FROM CPR SFC LOW NWD TO INTERSECT
   FRONTAL/DRYLINE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY 30-50 S MLS.  AXES OF SFC PRESSURE
   FALLS ARE EVIDENT ALONG OR JUST E OF BOTH OF THESE
   BOUNDARIES...HELPING TO MAINTAIN ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE.  IN
   ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR EACH IS FCST TO
   INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   1. INCREASING MIDLEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF PHASED/NEWD-MOVING MID/UPPER
   LEVEL TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER GREAT
   BASIN AND NRN AZ...
   2. CONTINUED ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND BACKING OF FLOW INVOF
   FRONTAL/DRYLINE BOUNDARY...AND
   3. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ STRENGTHENING TO
   40-50 KT ALONG WRN BORDER OF DAKOTAS AFTER DARK.
   
   UNTIL THEN...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN
   WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED BUOYANT PARCELS WITH MLCAPES
   500-1000 J/KG SW OF FRONT WHERE SFC DEW POINTS REMAIN IN 30S/40S
   F...AND 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG AND NE OF BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS 50S
   F.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
   
   46600511 45220276 43020287 43020401 43510410 43490605
   42940608 42410611 42360692 42790765 44620791 46820874

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0943
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0710 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NM...S-CENTRAL/SERN CO...WRN OK
   PANHANDLE...WRN TX PANHANDLE.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376...
   
   VALID 230010Z - 230215Z
   
   SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM SW-NE ACROSS WW WITH
   TIME BECAUSE OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRYING...LEADING EDGE OF WHICH
   IS ANALYZED AT 00Z FROM ROW-ABQ/CEZ.  ALTHOUGH SOME CU/TCU STILL ARE
   EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY SW OF THIS LINE...DIABATIC HEATING HAS PEAKED
   OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SWRN PORTION WW...AND GENERAL CONVECTIVE
   TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKENING IN THAT AREA. WW MAY BE CLEARED
   FROM SW-NE ACCORDINGLY.
   
   FARTHER N...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
   SPREAD OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...AHEAD OF
   STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY FROM SWRN NM NWWD ACROSS NRN AZ.  THIS MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH
   LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION ALOFT THIS EVENING TO OFFSET LOW LEVEL
   STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SERN
   CO....HOWEVER NEAR-TERN SVR POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF SERN CO HAS
   DIMINISHED MARKEDLY.  MEANWHILE STG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS
   NERN NM MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES WITH THREAT OF
   MRGL SVR HAIL AND GUSTS...HOWEVER POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONFINED IN
   AREAL EXTENT FOR ADDITIONAL WW E OF THIS ONE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   33490463 35620576 36620590 38790537 38720308 37810278
   36850244 35320254 33540323

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0727 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WA/NORTHEAST ORE/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   ID/FAR WESTERN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377...
   
   VALID 230027Z - 230230Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...WITH CONTINUED
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY/MID
   EVENING.
   
   STORMS WITH EARLIER HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
   TO PROGRESS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM FAR NORTHWEST MT/FAR NORTHERN ID
   INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AT THIS TIME. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...LIKELY TIED
   TO PRIMARY BAND OF FORCING FOR ASCENT PER WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY...NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ARC OF STORMS IS ADVANCING
   NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WA/FAR NORTHEAST ORE AND SOUTHERN ID
   AS OF 0030Z. AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...MODEST CLOUD BREAKS/HEATING
   WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MODIFIED 00Z
   OBSERVED SPOKANE WA RAOB SUPPORTIVE OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF
   1500-1800 J/KG WHERE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
   IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
   NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF WW 377 ACROSS FAR EASTERN WA/NORTHERN
   ID/WESTERN MT THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
   
   46121897 46981964 47941855 48581825 48801647 48801429
   48131362 47801331 47721415 47331407 47411445 47321494
   46881508 46321477 45131511 44411556 44741620 44541679
   44531705 44591776 44721796 45081814 45121887

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0923 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN CO...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378...
   
   VALID 230223Z - 230400Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC LABEL
   
   STRONGEST TSTMS AS OF 145Z ARE EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS
   ELBERT/LINCOLN/CROWLEY/KIOWA COUNTIES. SEVERE GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL
   WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG INSTABILITY
   GRADIENT RELATED TO OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...AND ACROSS I-70
   CORRIDOR BETWEEN LIC-GLD.  OTHERWISE...SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS
   TO BE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
   STABILIZES...FROM COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND
   STABILIZATION RELATED TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.  PRIMARY
   EXCEPTIONS MAY BE
   1. ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD FROM CHAFFEE/SAGUACHE COUNTIES...PER COORD
   W/BOU. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED MEASURED 40-50 KT GUSTS...IS
   EMBEDDED IN STRENGTHENING AMBIENT/GRADIENT FLOW AND MAY PRODUCE
   HIGH-ELEVATION WIND DAMAGE.
   2. HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING E OF
   FRONT RANGE...ATOP OUTFLOW POOLS...IN ZONE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT RELATED TO MIDLEVEL DPVA AND ELEVATED WAA.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...
   
   40990635 41380632 41500603 43480607 43490397 43050399
   43020282 40990202 38600210 38290345 38520406 39090409
   39140531 38660531 38740594 40970684

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0937 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN NM...E-CENTRAL/SERN CO...WRN
   KS...OK PANHANDLE..WRN TX PANHANDLE.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376...
   
   VALID 230237Z - 230330Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS NERN NM AND SERN CO...AND
   MAY SOON SHIFT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN KS AND WRN OK PANHANDLE.  WW
   REPLACEMENT OR ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 3Z...WHICH IS
   SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME FOR REMAINDER WW 376.
   
   BAND OF CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS SSEWD ACROSS NERN NM IS
    CONSOLIDATING IN BOTH REFLECTIVITY AND CG LIGHTNING
   PATTERNS...INDICATING OVERALL INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS OCCURRING AS
   STRONGEST SUPPORTIVE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
   MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER 4-CORNERS REGION -- ALSO LIFTS NEWD.
   MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL WAA AND ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
   INCREASE OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING
   SELY LLJ...ALREADY EVIDENT IN PROFILER/VWP DATA.
   CROSS SECTION OF 00Z RAOBS ALONG DDC-AMA-MAF LINE...AS WELL AS
   MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...SUGGESTS AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIER
   IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS WITH SWD EXTENT INTO TX PANHANDLE AND ERN
   NM...CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WEAKER MUCAPE...AND THEREFORE LESS
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE.  THEREFORE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR NEW WW IS
   FROM OK PANHANDLE AND EXTREME NERN NM NWD.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   38690596 38590209 40460205 40450261 41700237 41560082
   38520025 37450065 36270172 35790249 35660277 35470305
   35200347 34880383 36020528 37020568

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0947
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN CO...NERN NM...OK PANHANDLE...WRN
   KS...WRN NEB...NWRN TX PANHANDLE.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379...
   
   VALID 230432Z - 230600Z
   
   TWO PRIMARY BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD 35-45 KT
   ACROSS WW AREA.  LEADING BAND -- EVIDENT AT 415Z FROM WALLACE COUNTY
   KS NNWWD TOWARD PHILLIPS COUNTY CO -- IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
   GLD-MCK-OGA AREA WITHIN NEXT 2 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   GUSTS AND MRGLLY SVR HAIL.  MOST INTENSE/SOLID PORTION OF SECOND
   BAND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS LAA-LIC-GLD TRIANGLE DURING SAME TIME
   FRAME...HOWEVER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN SWD
   ACROSS SERN CO INTO SWRN KS WITH TIME.
   
   NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL RECOVERY MAY OCCUR BEHIND INITIAL BAND
   ACROSS NERN CO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONTRIBUTION OF 40-50 KT LLJ TO
   ISENTROPIC ATOP OUTFLOW POOL.  HOWEVER...PRIND DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL WITH SECOND BAND WILL DECREASE WITH NWWD EXTENT...AND
   INCREASING DISTANCE FROM OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL THETAE....BECAUSE OF MORE
   DEEPLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITING DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION TO
   SFC.  AIR MASS ACROSS WRN KS AND SERN CO IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C/KM...ATOP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   THAT INCREASES WITH NEWD EXTENT THROUGH WW.  EFFECTIVE PARCELS
   SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED NEAR SFC IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS...WITH
   MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG POSSIBLE NEAR MOIST AXIS...OVER NWRN KS AND
   SWRN NEB.  FARTHER S...STRONG/MRGLLY SVR TSTMS MAY CLIP NERN TX
   PANHANDLE...PRIMARILY DALLAM/HARTLEY COUNTIES...HOWEVER
   BEST-ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER N IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
   TO FAVORABLE MOISTURE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...
   
   36990382 38000320 38900325 39610405 41170271 42950279
   42960011 40360015 36990156 35530326

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL NEB/NWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379...
   
   VALID 230705Z - 230830Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL
   CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW 379...PERHAPS EWD INTO
   CNTRL NEB THROUGH 09-10Z.  AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   
   AS OF 0640Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INITIAL BAND OF
   STRONG TSTMS /LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/ FROM ARTHUR/MCPHERSON
   COUNTIES SWD THROUGH KEITH...PERKINS AND LINCOLN COUNTIES IN NEB
   MOVING 215/35 KTS.  FARTHER TO THE W...A LOWER REFLECTIVITY BOWING
   LINE EXTENDED FROM WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES SWD INTO KIT CARSON AND
   CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN ERN CO...ALSO MOVING ROUGHLY 215/35-40 KTS.
   
   DESPITE INFLOW OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG SSELY 40-50
   KT LLJ INTO THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW.
   MOREOVER...RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 850-650 MB LAYER ARE
   RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DESPITE MUCAPES OF
   1000-2000 J/KG.
   
   INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE
   CNTRL ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING STORMS NEWD THROUGH WRN INTO
   CNTRL NEB AND ACROSS NWRN KS EARLY THIS MORNING.  MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS.  SHOULD ONGOING STORMS ORGANIZE A COLD
   POOL...RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT...AN
   ADDITIONAL WW WOULD THEN HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   40790349 42020325 42990201 42980047 42299931 40949950
   39870036 39060107 38620190 38810258

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0551 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL INTO NERN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231051Z - 231215Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE
   STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING OVER ROLETTE AND
   TOWNER COUNTIES OF N-CNTRL ND. MESOANALYSIS AND PLAN VIEW
   VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN AN
   AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS...INDICATIVE OF STRONG WAA ALONG NOSE
   OF 40-45 KT SLY LLJ.  RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO A POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
   MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG.
   
   LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LLJ WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH MID MORNING WITH STRONGEST
   LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT /VIA WAA AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/
   SHIFTING NWD INTO SRN MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO.  HOWEVER PRIOR TO
   THIS...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS PERSISTING OVER ROLETTE AND TOWNER INTO CAVALIER COUNTIES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   49009759 48409767 48229863 48269927 48509967 48759983
   48999971

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN SD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN
   NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231712Z - 231845Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 19-20Z ACROSS CENTRAL
   PORTIONS OF SD AND NEB.  WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO
   2 HOURS.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS IN A N-S AXIS
   ACROSS THE ERN HALVES OF SD AND NEB...AHEAD OF WEAK
   TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE WITHIN DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR.
   
   STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION AS MID-LEVEL DRY
   SLOT CONTINUES SPREADING NEWD -- AHEAD OF CIRCULATION CENTER ALOFT
   NOW OVER NERN WY/W CENTRAL SD. THOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED
   ATTM...CONTINUED HEATING AND PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE UVV WILL COMBINE
   TO WEAKEN CAP...LIKELY RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
   MID-AFTERNOON.
   
   ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...WIND FIELD IS BECOMING MORE
   FAVORABLE WITH TIME AS STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS EWD ATOP
   LOW-LEVEL SLYS -- RESULTING IN VEERING/SHEARED PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
   OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS.  THUS...EXPECT DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS TO
   RAPIDLY INTENSIFY/ACQUIRE ROTATION.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER SHOULD LIMIT
   OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD INITIALLY BE THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...AS CELLULAR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THIS
   AFTERNOON.  WITH A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE FORECAST TO EVOLVE
   WITH TIME...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...
   
   45259924 45059837 43979709 42629676 40729695 39999759
   39929939 41549948 43179980 45360096

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...MUCH OF ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231925Z - 232130Z
   
   ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE LOW OVER
   SERN MT AND ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER WCENTRAL ND IN THE NEXT 1-3
   HRS. ADDITIONALLY SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT OF WW 380 INTO ERN ND
   IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. COVERAGE OF SVR MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO
   WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE...AND AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR
   THAT POSSIBILITY.
   
   19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 998 MB SFC LOW OVER SERN MT /NEAR MILES
   CITY/. A MOIST AXIS WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EXTENDED
   FROM LOW CENTER ESEWD ACROSS ECENTRAL MT INTO NRN/ERN ND. AIRMASS
   OVER THIS REGION WAS RAPIDLY BECOMING UNCAPPED WITH MUCINH LESS THAN
   25 J/KG BASED ON A MODIFIED 18Z GGW SOUNDING. VIS SAT IMAGERY
   INDICATES CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG PREFRONTAL
   TROUGH FROM ECENTRAL MT INTO WCENTRAL ND NEAR SFC LOW CENTER. THE
   STRONGEST CONVERGENCE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WILL REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
   THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND INVOF THE SFC LOW CENTER. AS THIS
   CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MUCAPES
   AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER NCENTRAL/NWRN ND AND NERN MT...IT SHOULD
   INTENSIFY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST /GIVEN
   MERIDIONAL MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW/...COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON THE 18Z GGW SOUNDING AND DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DMGG
   WIND. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED SVR STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
   ERN/CENTRAL SD /WW 380/ MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF ERN ND IN THE NEXT
   FEW HRS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...GGW...
   
   49020404 48810512 47200572 46660515 46800362 46660104
   46250010 46009980 45869738 46809650 49059734 49000010

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL NEB/PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 232000Z - 232200Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS S CENTRAL NEB AND SWD INTO PARTS
   OF KS. NEW WW MAY BE NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   DESPITE PERSISTENT CAP...DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND INCREASING
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SUGGEST
   THAT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF S CENTRAL NEB...AND THEN
   SWD ACROSS N CENTRAL KS...INVOF COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS. LATEST MCCOOK NEB AND GRENADA PROFILERS INDICATE SWLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 40 KT...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EWD
   ATOP INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  RESULTING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION
   INTENSIFY.  IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ALSO APPEAR
   LIKELY GIVEN DEEP MIXED LAYER/POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
   
   41419829 40569715 38679775 37389890 37609975 38690059
   40020031 41080039

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WA...FAR NERN ORE AND THE ID PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 232004Z - 232200Z
   
   TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE BLUE MTNS IN NERN
   ORE/FAR SERN WA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY POSE A SVR HAIL
   THREAT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL STG/ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF NERN WA. ONLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IS
   ANTICIPATED ATTM...AND THUS A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A SFC
   LOW OVER NERN ORE. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SEEMS TO BE AIDED BY WLY
   UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE MTNS. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
   NEWD INTO THE ID PANHANDLE. SFC ANALYSIS ALSO PLACES A NARROW
   CORRIDOR OF HIGHER DEWPTS /LOWER 50S/ ACROSS THE UPPER COLUMBIA
   RIVER AND SNAKE RIVER VALLEYS OF ERN WA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
   WA/ORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SUPPORT MUCAPES AROUND 1000
   J/KG THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
   A GREATER SVR THREAT IS RELATIVELY MARGINAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /30
   KTS/ PER RECENT VWP AND FCST SOUNDING DATA.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT...
   
   48861767 48801908 48471917 47781830 47401800 46671757
   46201787 45821801 45431728 45821600 46751516 47751589
   48871680

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0501 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WCENTRAL/NWRN MN AND PORTIONS OF ERN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 232201Z - 240000Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR TSTMS DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER NERN
   SD/WCENTRAL MN WILL MOVE NWD INTO NWRN MN/ERN ND OVER THE NEXT 3
   HRS. OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL THROUGH 00Z AND THUS A WW
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. AS GREATER MID LEVEL
   FLOW /AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE/ APPROACHES LATER
   THIS EVENING...A WW MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 00Z.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM/MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM
   WCENTRAL MN INTO NWRN MN/NERN ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTED IN
   THIS AREA WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. CONVECTION WAS
   INCREASING OVER NERN SD/WCENTRAL MN IN AN AREA OF INCREASING WAA
   ALONG NRN EXTENT OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS CONVECTION
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS DUE TO
   PREDOMINANT CLOUD LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5 DEG C/KM/ OVER THE REGION WHICH MAY
   SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS VERY
   MARGINAL /25-30 KTS/ DUE TO PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
   OVER THE AREA. SINCE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HRS...ONLY A MARGINAL SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...
   
   47029544 47679586 47999674 47599759 47019802 46369787
   45729719 45199654 44639599 44769517 45109491 45809489

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0540 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN SD...CENTRAL-ERN NEB...SWRN
   MN...EXTREME WRN IA.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 380...
   
   VALID 232240Z - 240045Z
   
   CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...WHICH AT 2220Z
   WAS INDICATED NEAR A LINE FROM ABR...50 S ONL...EAR.  WLY BOUNDARY
   LAYER WINDS AND DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED DRYLINE/FRONT SHOULD
   REDUCE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE W OF THIS
   ACTIVITY....MARKEDLY DIMINISHING SVR POTENTIAL. ANOTHER WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS...E OF THIS ONE ACROSS PORTIONS
   IA/MN AND/OR REMAINDER ERN NEB.
   
   TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING ONCE DEW POINT
   DEPRESSIONS DROP...WHEN EFFECTIVE PARCELS STILL ARE BASED AT SFC.
   IN MEANTIME...MAIN THREAT NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS SEVERE DOWNDRAFT
   WIND...GIVEN LARGE SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN INFLOW LAYER AND
   DEEPLY HEATED/MIXED SUBCLOUD PROFILES. HAIL THREAT OF CONSEQUENCE
   SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  MODIFIED 18Z OMA
   RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND
   1500 J/KG NEAR ERN EDGE OF WW IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOMEWHAT MORE
   ROBUST SFC MOISTURE.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRENGTHENING FROM
   W-E ACROSS PRE CONVECTIVE AIR MASS AND WILL FAVOR BOTH BOW ECHO AND
   SUPERCELL PROCESSES.  ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN LINE WILL
   HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SOMEWHAT OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND EVOLVE INTO
   LEWPS/BOWS.  STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS THIS HOUR EXTEND FROM NERN NEB
   NWD THROUGH ERN SD...AND SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS WW
   AREA....INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR BACKED SFC WINDS AND ENLARGED LOW
   LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NOW OVER NERN NEB TO SHIFT/EXPAND OVER MORE OF ERN
   SD.  EXPECT EFFECTIVE SHEARS STRENGTHENING TO 40-50 KT AHEAD OF
   TSTMS...AND 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER FROM NERN NEB INTO ERN
   SD.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...
   
   40939916 42439863 43949841 44789885 45839846 45559655
   42949594 41089681

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0625 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT AND WRN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382...
   
   VALID 232325Z - 240130Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 382
   /ERN MT/ DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP OVER WRN ND IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. HVY RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN A
   THREAT ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF WW 382.
   
   CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH
   EXTENDING SFC LOW OVER NRN FALLON COUNTY NWD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
   AS THIS ACTIVITY ROTATES WWD AROUND THE UPPER LOW...IT ENCOUNTERS
   WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. CELL
   TRAINING AND MODEST PW/S WILL FAVOR THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HVY
   RAINFALL IN THIS AREA. WHERE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
   ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNAFFECTED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION ...THE
   GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND JUST WEST
   THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH OVER FAR ERN MT. FURTHER EAST...MID LEVEL
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER SWRN ND MAY
   BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND POSE A MARGINAL DMGG WIND THREAT OVER NWRN
   ND /ERN PORTION OF WW 382/...AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY
   /INCLUDING HIGHER DCAPE/ EXISTS IN THIS AREA.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
   
   48940495 48730629 46340595 46500243 49050224