Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
109 PM AST FRI NOV 7 2014

AMZ722-725-732-735-072100-
109 PM AST FRI NOV 7 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...

AT 1255 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PONCE OUT TO 60 NM AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SAINT CROIX
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTS UP TO
33 KNOTS...MOVING NORTH AT 20 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 1701 6654 1796 6656 1792 6610 1812 6576
1808 6551 1817 6494 1765 6489 1774 6455
1792 6455 1796 6400 1699 6399

$$

ROSA

[msbee]

starting to get some heavy rain here but its coming in squalls and not lasting too long

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ722-725-732-735-071945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0053.141107T1752Z-141107T1945Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
152 PM AST FRI NOV 7 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS FROM GUAYAMA...VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX
SOUTH TO 17 NORTH.

* UNTIL 345 PM AST

* AT 137 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFYING OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS AND MOVING TO THE NORTH AROUND 18 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 1793 6611 1818 6498 1764 6488 1772 6399
1702 6401 1699 6598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 167DEG 18KT 1713 6587

$$

ROSA

[cycloneye]

Images are starting to pop up of the flooding in different areas of Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

No break yet from the tons of rain that PR has received on this Friday.This saved loop is 7 hours later from the first loop I posted this morning.

[Patti]

That is a lot of rain. First the drought.. now this . Hope everyone is safe and dry over there and off the roads. Thank you or keeping us informed.

[cycloneye]

That is a lot of rain. First the drought.. now this . Hope everyone is safe and dry over there and off the roads. Thank you or keeping us informed.

Indeed what big contrast. So far no reports of injuries but there is plenty of flooding and some mudslides have occurred. I will keep posting information about this event as it becomes available. By the way the Flash Flood watch has been extended in time now until Sunday afternoon.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 PM AST FRI NOV 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH
COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE FREQUENT PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN SMALL
STREAMS...GUTS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. REMAIN ALERT AND
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER WEATHER UPDATES OR CHANGES ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN OFFICE DURING THE REST OF
THE DAY.

A GENERALLY STABLE PATTERN AND A DECREASE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AT EASTERN PR TAF SITES AS WELL AS USVI TERMINAL AS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LEEWARD TERMINALS MOSTLY VFR. WINDS WILL
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF HAITI WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS. WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 73 85 73 / 100 70 60 50
STT 88 77 82 77 / 100 90 90 60

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards Islands are under an yellow alert...
http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

[Gustywind]

Numerous but localized floodings have occured this afternoon. I was outside and i can tell you that we have wet and sliding roads Be aware and on your guard islanders!

[msbee]

We have had significant rain here too and localized flooding. Nothing too serious so far... hope everything in PR is OK.
Haiti apparently suffered serious flooding yesterday.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... c-26742620

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1056 PM AST FRI NOV 7 2014

.UPDATE...THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS NOW STRETCHED ACROSS SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX WITH RAIN RATES OF BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR. AT PRESENT THE AREA OF RAIN IS
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AT AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT HAS SLOWED IN THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE 08/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY MOIST
SOUNDING ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FEET BUT WITH A DRYER LAYER CENTERED AT
ABOUT 3200 FEET WITH ABOUT 50 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WINDS IN
THE DRIER LAYER WERE EASTERLY...WHILE WINDS IN THE MOIST LAYER
WERE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS NOW PULLING NORTHEAST OVER
HISPANIOLA AND WEAKENING AND IS CAUSING THE AREA OF GREATEST
RAINFALL TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MOTION OF THE LOW TO CONTINUE. THIS WILL
BRING SOME CLEARING TO PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND ALLOW SOME HEATING
OF THE ISLAND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HENCE IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE MECHANISM FOR RAIN GENERATION WILL SHIFT FROM THE
INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE UPPER LOW TO UNSTABLE
TYPE SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOSTLY OVER LAND AND SOME CONVECTION OVER
LOCAL WATERS SUPPORTED BY GENERAL INSTABILITY...VERY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND WEAK DYNAMICS AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LEAVE THE
AREA...PULLING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO AROUND
08/18Z. THUS THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS NOT OVER...ESPECIALLY FOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN FACT...THE NAM5 SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA
OF MAXIMUM RAINFALL WILL RETURN TO PUERTO RICO TOMORROW. THE GFS
ALSO BRINGS A BAND OF RAIN OVER THE ISLAND...BUT DOES NOT DEVELOP
IT AS MUCH. NEVERTHELESS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH
LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AREAS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RECEIVE LARGE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS OBSERVED IN THE MIMIC PRODUCT ALSO
SHOW VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONVERGING OVER THE AREA FROM
FAJARDO TO SAINT MARTIN AND MOVING DUE NORTH. FLOW TOMORROW IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND THIS COULD BRING THAT
MOISTURE BACK OVER PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE WE CONTINUE WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST SAT NOV 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION AND A MOIST
EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL REGION BY
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ACROSS MAINLAND
PUERTO RICO SO FAR THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS...GUTS AND
RIVERS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A GENERALLY STABLE PATTERN AND A DECREASE IN THE OVERALL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWER CLOUDS CLEARING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. AREA OF
MDT TO HEAVY RAIN STREAMING FROM SOUTH WAS LEAVING ERN PR AS OF
08/00Z WITH HEAVIEST RA OVR TIST/TISX BRINGING AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. AREA WILL CONT MOVG TWD TNCM/TKPK. INTERMITTENT MVFR
CONDS SHOULD BCM VFR BY 08/08Z FOR ALL STATIONS W OF TKPK/TNCM. A
WEAK LOW DRIFTING N BTWN CULEBRA AND TIST IS CAUSING VRB WINDS BLO
FL040 BCMG SW TO S ABV FL120.

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 72 88 74 / 80 50 50 20
STT 88 78 88 80 / 90 60 60 20

[Gustywind]

Msbee be aware as ORANGE alert alert have been activated for the Northern Leewards while Guadeloupe stays at least fort the moment?! ( hopefully!) in yellow and Martinica now is in yellow too.
Note that St Marteen and St Barth are in orange since 4AM.
See weather vigilance orange alert (french version) for the Northern Leewards:
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... s_nord.pdf

Given Meteo-France Guadeloupe, in three hours rainfall reached 107 millimiters at Juliana Airport and 126 millimiters in 6 hours

[natmicstef]

Thank you for this info gustywind. Unfortunately we don't get much detailed info locally on St. Maarten. Some areas of the island were blocked due to flood waters but we had no way of knowing until trying to get to work and being unable to pass. Is the rain likely to continue throughout the day do you know?

[msbee]

Yes I know Gusty.. Thanks...Lots of rain has fallen already.



GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Fire and Department of Disaster Management (ODM) is requesting motorists to remain off the roadway due to torrential rainfall that has flooded low lying areas, until rain subsides and flood waters drain away.

Roads in the areas around the Salt Pond, Fresh Water Pond; low lying areas in various districts that are prone to flooding in Beacon Hill, Belvedere, may be inundated with rainwater runoff and impassable at this point in time.

For your safety, remain off the roadway, and only venture out if necessary, but avoid flooded and/or low lying areas.

Flooded areas are often deeper than they look and caution is advised.

The authorities will close certain roads if necessary as a public safety measure.

Residents living on hillside areas, exercise caution due to possible rock falls; hill sides and ground is saturated.

[Gustywind]

Thank you for this info gustywind. Unfortunately we don't get much detailed info locally on St. Maarten. Some areas of the island were blocked due to flood waters but we had no way of knowing until trying to get to work and being unable to pass. Is the rain likely to continue throughout the day do you know?

Ok you're welcomed . Thanks for sharing this precious info too! Given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe bad weather is expected too spread till the end of the morning, after things should ( should it verifies too!) calm down this afternoon.
Here is the latest weather forecast for the Northern Leewards related to the orange alert this morning maintained till 12AM.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... s_nord.pdf

[msbee]

Thank you for this info gustywind. Unfortunately we don't get much detailed info locally on St. Maarten. Some areas of the island were blocked due to flood waters but we had no way of knowing until trying to get to work and being unable to pass. Is the rain likely to continue throughout the day do you know?

What I just posted above in a previous post was in The Daily Herald online this morning.
and this radar site is helpful too to see what conditions over the island look like

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... C_ant.html

[Gustywind]

Yes I know Gusty.. Thanks...Lots of rain has fallen already.



GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Fire and Department of Disaster Management (ODM) is requesting motorists to remain off the roadway due to torrential rainfall that has flooded low lying areas, until rain subsides and flood waters drain away.

Roads in the areas around the Salt Pond, Fresh Water Pond; low lying areas in various districts that are prone to flooding in Beacon Hill, Belvedere, may be inundated with rainwater runoff and impassable at this point in time.

For your safety, remain off the roadway, and only venture out if necessary, but avoid flooded and/or low lying areas.

Flooded areas are often deeper than they look and caution is advised.

The authorities will close certain roads if necessary as a public safety measure.

Residents living on hillside areas, exercise caution due to possible rock falls; hill sides and ground is saturated.

Yeah thanks for this info! Glad to see my Barbara safe and dry and in good shape. Be aware as the orange alert is maintained till 12 AM! Juicy amount of water are falling in your area that's amazing... just less than one month after Gonzalo

[Gustywind]

Thank you for this info gustywind. Unfortunately we don't get much detailed info locally on St. Maarten. Some areas of the island were blocked due to flood waters but we had no way of knowing until trying to get to work and being unable to pass. Is the rain likely to continue throughout the day do you know?

What I just posted above in a previous post was in The Daily Herald online this morning.
and this radar site is helpful too to see what conditions over the island look like

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... C_ant.html

Again, lot of rain is coming in your direction Barbara.