ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Steve]

That is a much earlier posting by Joe B look at the graphics.
Hard to predict stall events but the track Joe outlined would still drive the storm surge with the same intensity as if it were offshore.

Yeah. That's his idea he put out on the free daily video around noon. It's reasonable

[stormreader]

Gotta be the eastern outlier... but interesting no less

That NAM is very close to my thinking (maybe I should be embarrassed to say that....) Steve says the NAM is not worth much for a storm below 25N. Still below 25 N but not much now. Moving out of deep tropics shortly and into subtropics, and, more importantly, continental weather, with its diving troughs and shifting ridges. Also, the NAM a couple of days ago was the only model that had the storm pretty much in its current position coming off the northern coast of the Yucatan. When others had this bound for Tampico, NAM had storm move NW over the penninsula and come off as now off the NW corner. If not exact it was pretty close. It did not have this as a BOC storm, and its not.

NAM has her moments but I will be careful paying too much attention to it when dealing with TC. I do remember that in 2010 it did a good forecast or maybe guess of Hermine but I would stick with the big three ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET for tropical cyclones.

Understood. I think the last NAM run was pretty close to the last UK run. Both correspond to my current thinking. But I admit, the consensus is south-central Texas.

[Portastorm]

I assume you mean the lower or middle Texas coast. South central Texas is San Antonio or Austin.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

18z GFS hour 192, maybe a 3rd hurricane landfall over MS:

At this point, it might be easier to predict where it won't hit.

[ROCK]

:uarrow:

I assume you mean the lower or middle Texas coast. South central Texas is San Antonio or Austin.

so that is where Austin is...lol

[Brent]

[Rgv20]

:uarrow:

I assume you mean the lower or middle Texas coast. South central Texas is San Antonio or Austin.

so that is where Austin is...lol

Austin is in a Dome where Rain nor Snow need not enter.....

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

I assume you mean the lower or middle Texas coast. South central Texas is San Antonio or Austin.

so that is where Austin is...lol

I thought Austin was in Indiana....who knew. ..

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

I assume you mean the lower or middle Texas coast. South central Texas is San Antonio or Austin.

so that is where Austin is...lol

Austin is in a Dome where Rain nor Snow need not enter.....

Or 2011 Tropical Storm Don for that matter ..lol

[sphelps8681]

What do you think will happen if a COC forms? Or do we already have one.

[Portastorm]

Alright wise guys ...

Back to Harvey, please

[Rgv20]

18zHWRF and HMON came in a bit more South then the 12z run.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

The models are tightening on a First landfall somewhere between south Padre island and Matagorda Bay but after that it's a guess too far out and much uncertainty

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Latest gfs run has started putting people on notice and talking around Baton Rouge and points westward. Its scary on how much in agreement the 3 main models are with this system potentially emerging back into the gulf and making a second landfall over here in LA. If it were just one run of the 18z gfs showing this wouldn't bat an eye, but all three and multiple runs, hmmm. Local nws is playing it pretty conservatively saying area wide coverage of 3-5 inches of rain with isolated higher totals. I'm sure it's a tough solution to buy into but we do have several more days to watch this and see if the models stick to their guns. So far it's not looking too good though.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://fltwx.db.erau.edu/get_loop.php?& ... /FLLWS/US/

http://fltwx.db.erau.edu/get_loop.php?& ... AM/FPW/US/

[Alyono]

This run of the GFS doesn't have the GIV data in it. Hopefully we will get at least some of that data in the 0z runs tonight.

yes it does. About half the sondes make it into the 18Z run. Generally, drops before 21Z go into the 18Z run

Because the model does not start running until after 21z.

Also gfs uses a 3dvar based system that maps all obs to the starting model time
Alyono -- Sorry to bring this up again, but I'm a little confused. I'm sure I'm missing something, but how can a drop at, say, 20Z go into a model run that's timestamped two hours earlier? Relativistic modeling, maybe?

[sphelps8681]

http://fltwx.db.erau.edu/get_loop.php?&cnt=27&dir=model_erau/NAM/FLLWS/US/

http://fltwx.db.erau.edu/get_loop.php?& ... AM/FPW/US/

Looks a tad further north.

[Frank P]

http://fltwx.db.erau.edu/get_loop.php?&cnt=27&dir=model_erau/NAM/FLLWS/US/

http://fltwx.db.erau.edu/get_loop.php?& ... AM/FPW/US/

Looks a tad further north.

Look further north and a hint of a N or NNE component at the very end of the run... that run looks like a Galveston impact

[Dean4Storms]

Keep in mind we don't even have a consolidated center quite yet and this thing is elongated a good bit SSW to NNE, so there is always a possibility this forms further north as the ULL keeps tugging with it in the short term.

[Frank P]

Keep in mind we don't even have a consolidated center quite yet and this thing is elongated a good bit SSW to NNE, so there is always a possibility this forms further north as the ULL keeps tugging with it in the short term.

I was noticing that very same thing Dean4 as I was reviewing the IR loops to see if I could see any kind of center relocation... to no avail... but strangely enough where the center has been all day I would have imagined significantly more convection around it this evening as it goes out into the Gulf, maybe more will develop later this evening.. But not sure how anyone can find a center of this system by only using the IR as it sits right now.. need more recon baby!