TD 10...Back Again

[Thunder44]

Here is a better loop.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html

You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]

Looks lop-sided but it's good enough for a TD.

[mascpa]

It appears that the BAMs are the only ones that have this going into the gulf???

GFDI and CONU also bring the storm into the GOM ... only after crossing the Florida peninsula

[TampaFl]

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early3.png">

Nice model map CronkPSU - What is the link.

Thanks
Robert

[jasons2k]

Here is a better loop.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html

You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]

Looks lop-sided but it's good enough for a TD.

Looks like it's finally starting to wrap up to me...and it looks like it's moving almost due W. Not good for us GOM'ers.

[fci]

Here is a better loop.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html

You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]

Try the GHCC...the images are coming in every 10 minutes...plus it's zoomed in more.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

AFM:
What are your thoughts on this system?

[CronkPSU]

here is the link to that map and the stengrht forecast someone else posted

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[jasons2k]

If you zoom here

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

There is a very small but very clear LLC at 22.7N 75.0W

You can see the inflow of the surface clouds from way west feeding into it and wrapping.

[Blown Away]

Looks like we have a TD to me. I'm firing up the grill and getting the crows ready.

[tailgater]

Here is a better loop.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html

You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]

Looks lop-sided but it's good enough for a TD.

Looks like it's finally starting to wrap up to me...and it looks like it's moving almost due W. Not good for us GOM'ers.

don't know about direction but circ. very evident @ 22.6N/74.8W. Looks like the island to it's north is pointing at it. go to the GHCC site zoom in and speed it up a little , that a tight spiral right dere.

[Air Force Met]

My thoughts on the system are this:

I think that once the upper low moves a little more to the west of the LLC...that it should develop. Looking at the vis loops this morning, the lower level circulation encompasses a rather large area. Westerly flow around the south side is all the way down south of Cuba so it has a large circulation...even though it's broad right now. So...I give it a really good chance of being upgraded. It might not be today...simply because the NHC likes to see consistancy in a system before they upgrade it...but if the new burst of convection moves over the LLC...and the recon finds a closed low...then they may upgrade at 5PM...maybe 10...but it all depends on what it looks like at the time. If the structure remains the same as now...they won't upgrade it. I do think, however, that tomorrow is probably the day it will take off...epsecially if the upper low to the north of ex-TD10 moves to the west of it and the ridge that is currently east of the upper low moves over ex-TD10.

I give it a good chance of redevelopment....and never wrote it off to begin with. I told someone a few days ago that it had a chance once it was nearing the Bahamas.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here is a better loop.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html

You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]

Looks lop-sided but it's good enough for a TD.

Looks like it's finally starting to wrap up to me...and it looks like it's moving almost due W. Not good for us GOM'ers.

don't know about direction but circ. very evident @ 22.6N/74.8W. Looks like the island to it's north is pointing at it. go to the GHCC site zoom in and speed it up a little , that a tight spiral right dere.

yeah i saw that on visible... when will the NHC change the floater to the system in the bahamas... would really help..

[Frank P]

My thoughts on the system are this:

I think that once the upper low moves a little more to the west of the LLC...that it should develop. Looking at the vis loops this morning, the lower level circulation encompasses a rather large area. Westerly flow around the south side is all the way down south of Cuba so it has a large circulation...even though it's broad right now. So...I give it a really good chance of being upgraded. It might not be today...simply because the NHC likes to see consistancy in a system before they upgrade it...but if the new burst of convection moves over the LLC...and the recon finds a closed low...then they may upgrade at 5PM...maybe 10...but it all depends on what it looks like at the time. If the structure remains the same as now...they won't upgrade it. I do think, however, that tomorrow is probably the day it will take off...epsecially if the upper low to the north of ex-TD10 moves to the west of it and the ridge that is currently east of the upper low moves over ex-TD10.

I give it a good chance of redevelopment....and never wrote it off to begin with. I told someone a few days ago that it had a chance once it was nearing the Bahamas.

Yeah, I remembered that as a bunch of us got blasted for even commenting on this system a couple of days ago, and that by doing so we were a discredit to meteorology.... crow buffet time perhaps for some... hehe....

[jasons2k]

Here is a better loop.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html

You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]

Looks lop-sided but it's good enough for a TD.

Looks like it's finally starting to wrap up to me...and it looks like it's moving almost due W. Not good for us GOM'ers.

don't know about direction but circ. very evident @ 22.6N/74.8W. Looks like the island to it's north is pointing at it. go to the GHCC site zoom in and speed it up a little , that a tight spiral right dere.

Yep, we definitely now have a LLC, altho I would put it a tad west (75W as posted above). If it holds through the day, I think it will ramp up quickly.

[Thunder44]

My thoughts on the system are this:

I think that once the upper low moves a little more to the west of the LLC...that it should develop. Looking at the vis loops this morning, the lower level circulation encompasses a rather large area. Westerly flow around the south side is all the way down south of Cuba so it has a large circulation...even though it's broad right now. So...I give it a really good chance of being upgraded. It might not be today...simply because the NHC likes to see consistancy in a system before they upgrade it...but if the new burst of convection moves over the LLC...and the recon finds a closed low...then they may upgrade at 5PM...maybe 10...but it all depends on what it looks like at the time. If the structure remains the same as now...they won't upgrade it. I do think, however, that tomorrow is probably the day it will take off...epsecially if the upper low to the north of ex-TD10 moves to the west of it and the ridge that is currently east of the upper low moves over ex-TD10.

I give it a good chance of redevelopment....and never wrote it off to begin with. I told someone a few days ago that it had a chance once it was nearing the Bahamas.

Yeah, I remembered that as a bunch of us got blasted for even commenting on this system a couple of days ago, and that by doing so we were a discredit to meteorology.... crow buffet time perhaps for some... hehe....

Well it doesn't look like TPC will be classifying this again as TD 10. 99L is up and TPC no longer mentions this as being possibly TD 10 remmants in the 11:30 TWO.

[Frank P]

My thoughts on the system are this:

I think that once the upper low moves a little more to the west of the LLC...that it should develop. Looking at the vis loops this morning, the lower level circulation encompasses a rather large area. Westerly flow around the south side is all the way down south of Cuba so it has a large circulation...even though it's broad right now. So...I give it a really good chance of being upgraded. It might not be today...simply because the NHC likes to see consistancy in a system before they upgrade it...but if the new burst of convection moves over the LLC...and the recon finds a closed low...then they may upgrade at 5PM...maybe 10...but it all depends on what it looks like at the time. If the structure remains the same as now...they won't upgrade it. I do think, however, that tomorrow is probably the day it will take off...epsecially if the upper low to the north of ex-TD10 moves to the west of it and the ridge that is currently east of the upper low moves over ex-TD10.

I give it a good chance of redevelopment....and never wrote it off to begin with. I told someone a few days ago that it had a chance once it was nearing the Bahamas.

Yeah, I remembered that as a bunch of us got blasted for even commenting on this system a couple of days ago, and that by doing so we were a discredit to meteorology.... crow buffet time perhaps for some... hehe....

Well it doesn't look like TPC will be classifying this again as TD 10. 99L is up and TPC no longer mentions this as being possibly TD 10 remmants in the 11:30 TWO.

It's not the LLC of TD10 for sure but in my opinion its part thereof of its remants as discussed by the NHC..... close enough to count in my book anyway

[x-y-no]

Yeah, I remembered that as a bunch of us got blasted for even commenting on this system a couple of days ago, and that by doing so we were a discredit to meteorology.... crow buffet time perhaps for some... hehe....

Well my recollection is different. Very few here were dismissing any prospect of redevelopment. What was getting blasted were claims of ongoing rapid intensification, claims that it was looking better than it ever had, etc. You're not claiming those things were true a couple of days ago, are you?

[Frank P]

Yeah, I remembered that as a bunch of us got blasted for even commenting on this system a couple of days ago, and that by doing so we were a discredit to meteorology.... crow buffet time perhaps for some... hehe....

Well my recollection is different. Very few here were dismissing any prospect of redevelopment. What was getting blasted were claims of ongoing rapid intensification, claims that it was looking better than it ever had, etc. You're not claiming those things were true a couple of days ago, are you?

Absolutely not... if fact I only posted what was developing at the time... you can go back and read them... I never claimed any specific forecast but that this was a system that needed to be monitored and watched ... that's all I ever forecast ... period... some were saying that we shouldn't even be monitoring the system, that it was dead and done for, those are the ones I'm referring to...

[artist]

x-y-no - I don't think that is what he means at all - could be wrong though - I have just felt personally there was something about that area that I needed to continue to keep my eye on.

[SouthFloridawx]

no more 10L Noname according to the navy site.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... s&DISPLAY=

[gatorcane]

Absolutely not... if fact I only posted what was developing at the time... you can go back and read them... I never claimed any specific forecast but that this was a system that needed to be monitored and watched ... that's all I ever forecast ... period... some were saying that we shouldn't even be monitoring the system, that it was dead and done for, those are the ones I'm referring to...

Frank you and people on this board know that I'm with you...I have an entire thread that I started 4 days ago about this system developing and many completely bashed me...of course I may be panicking more than you...and some were bashing me for my panic.