Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST THU JAN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND DIG INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...CAUSING WINDS TO STRENGTHEN LOCALLY. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN WE HAD PASSING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND A FEW OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN PR. IN
THE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN PR AND A
FEW PASSED OVER SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA AS THEY
STREAMED FROM THE RAIN FOREST...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE
MINIMAL.

SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY IS STILL EXPECTED.
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL
AREA...OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN PR IN PARTICULAR. OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...SO THE SHOWERS THAT TO OCCUR ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING. ONCE THE WINDS STRENGTHEN...THE
SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO TRAVEL A LITTLE MORE INLAND SO IN TERMS OF
COVERAGE WE MAY SEE MORE AREA WITH RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
NOT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF VCSH. ALSO...BRIEF PDS OF
MVFR CIGS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFT IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ IN
PASSING SHRA. EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW 20K FT THRU
FRI MORNING...THEN WIND SPEEDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY TO 20-30 KT AND
CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...INCREASING WINDS WILL BRING A FEW LOCAL AREAS TO 6
FEET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY
NOON TO SATURDAY NOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGHER SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 70 84 / 40 60 50 40
STT 74 86 74 84 / 20 40 40 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1007 PM AST THU JAN 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...850-500 MB RIDGE JUST NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
WONDER OVER THE WATERS EASTWARD FROM BAHAMAS INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE STRENGTHENING. IT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THE TRADES.

GENERALLY LOWERED SHOWER CHANCES NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS ARE VERY QUIET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL GRADUALLY
SLIP TO ONE INCH AGAIN BY SAT MORNING.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST FRI JAN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW AFFECTING THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ACROSS ALL THE REGION...WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. GFS COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH VERY DRY
AIR DOMINATING MID AND UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. NO MAJOR
WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION IN THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES.
VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ...TIST AND TISX THRU MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FM 15-25 KT TODAY TO 20-30 KT DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...AS WINDS STRETENGETNS...SEAS WILL DETERIOTE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET INCREASING TO 7
FEET LATER TODAY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ALTANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVIROIES WIL BE IN EFFECT STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS..AND ACROSS MOST LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 71 84 71 / 20 10 20 20
STT 85 75 87 76 / 20 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST FRI JAN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PASSING SHOWERS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY THE
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...PARTICULARLY AS THEY STREAMED OFF THE ISLANDS STARTING LATE IN THE
MORNING...THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR BUT THE ACCUMULATIONS
WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING. THESE SHOWERS WERE
ALSO FAST MOVING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
TIGHTENED...CAUSING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AT THE LOWER LEVELS INDICATED THAT WINDS
ARE ALREADY AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUOY JUST SOUTH OF
ST JOHN HOWEVER IS OBSERVING WINDS AROUND 17 KTS. HAVING SAID
THAT...MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...POSSIBLY RIGHT OVER 22
KTS.

GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...CREATING SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE AREA. PATCHES OF MOISTURE MAY BE THE MAIN REASON FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF VCSH IN PASSING -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS/TIST/TJSJ OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS BLO FL200 AT
15-25 KT...20-30 KT DURING THE WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WHILE THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
NORTHERN USVI AS WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT STARTING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 8 FEET
TONIGHT AND UP TO 9 FEET ON SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 83 / 10 20 20 20
STT 74 86 75 86 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SAT JAN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD AND BUILD OVER THE BAHAMAS
OVER THE SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
LOW LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE ISLANDS...BUT OVERALL A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRONG
EASTERLY TRADES PUSHED THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY QUICKLY...LIMITING THE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE ISLANDS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL PEAK AT
AROUND 22-24 KT ON SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. STRONG TRADES USUALLY
CARRY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS LIGHT SHOWERS...
AFFECTING MAINLY THE WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME.

IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS LOCAL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE. RIDGE PATTERN WEAKENS UNDER PRESSURE FROM A POLAR FRONT
ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PR AND USVI ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 03/22Z. PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
OVER TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TJSJ. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE BUILDING SEAS OF 7-9 FT.
THIS WILL RESULT CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE STRONG TRADES COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS TO ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER TODAY AND POSSIBLY ON
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM
LATE THIS MORNING TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE STATEMENT
FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 83 71 / 20 20 10 30
STT 86 75 86 75 / 20 20 10 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST SAT JAN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL FORM A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST
AND THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SQUEEZED BY THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AT
MID LATITUDE THROUGH AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL REGENERATE OVER AND
JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANITLLES NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY UNTIL SATURDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE COMING OUT OF MAINE AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT GRADIENTS AND FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH GRADIENTS
WEAKEN AS THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEY WILL RE-
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF PUERTO RICO
EXCEPT THE SOUTH COASTAL SECTION TODAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
SAN JUAN REPORTED FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SINCE
MIDNIGHT...OTHER AREAS...MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST HAD AS
MUCH AS ONE TENTH INCH. SAINT THOMAS HAD FOUR HUNDREDTHS AND SAINT
CROIX HAD TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FREQUENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE SHOWERS ARE
ARRIVING IN BANDS OF CLUMPS OF CONVECTION AND THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ALSO THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF.
WEAK BANDS OF MOISTURE ARRIVE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS.
SINCE WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
AT THAT TIME...EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN THEN...AS IS BEING
EXPERIENCED NOW WITH SHOWERS ON THE NORTH AND EASTERN COAST AND
SLOPES AND A GENERAL RAIN SHADOW ON THE SOUTH COAST. DUE TO THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOIST LAYER ALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINOR EXCEPT ON THE MOST FAVORED WINDWARD SLOPES IN PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. VCSH IN PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX/TJSJ CREATING BRIEF
SCT/BKN CIGS BETWEEN FL030-050. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST AT 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET IN WAVES FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST HAVE
BEEN NOTED SO FAR AND ONLY MINIMAL RISES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 15 TO 20 GUSTING TO
27 TO 31 KNOTS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 83 75 84 / 40 40 40 40
STT 75 86 75 86 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST SUN JAN 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
OVER THE SEVERAL DAYS. AT LOW LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS MAINTAINING A FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE
WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME. LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE TRADE WIND SHOWERS...AS MOISTURE REMAINS VERY
SHALLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING.
BRISK EASTERLY FLOW HAVE PUSHED THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS...LIMITING THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RADAR ESTIMATED LESS
THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO SINCE MIDNIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. ASCAT PASS AT 02Z SHOWED WINDS OF AROUND
20-25 KT ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
LOOSENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE WINDWARD
AREAS AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. RIDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS UNDER PRESSURE FROM A POLAR FRONT ENTERING THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PR AND USVI ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TJSJ. THESE -SHRA MAY LEAD TO
BRIEF MVFR CIGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE ENE AT
AROUND 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AROUND
6-8 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 9 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE
WIND WAVES WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT
THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES MODERATE TO HIGH FOR MOST OF THE BEACHES IN PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 83 76 / 30 30 30 40
STT 85 78 86 78 / 20 30 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST SUN JAN 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
HIGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL LEAN OVER INTO THE LOCAL AREA
BY THURSDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH AMERICA.
A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST BUT WILL RETREAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL EXIT THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL RE-FORM
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL BE SQUEEZED BY
AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CARRY SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A MODEST CUT-OFF LOW WILL
ALSO FORM IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY THIS WEEK. THE
LOW WILL WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE THIS WEEK. THE HIGH WILL RETURN TO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS SEEN IN THE MID LAYERS UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TOWARD AFRICA WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND
ALLOW LOWER PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADE
WINDS...NOW STRONGER THAN USUAL...TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. A VERY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DECAY CONSIDERABLY BEFORE ENTERING THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...BUT GRADIENTS AND LOCAL TRADE WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS OCCURRED THIS CURRENT WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...INCREASING IN AMOUNT
AND FREQUENCY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WIND SHOWERS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THE BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION
HAVE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED THIS AFTERNOON AND WE ARE ENTERING
INTO A DRIER PORTION OF THAT PATTERN THIS EVENING. THE 04/12Z
SOUNDING SHOWED A SATURATED LAYER FROM 3000 TO 7000 FEET AND THEN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PLUNGED TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

ANOTHER SHALLOW BAND WILL PASS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE NEXT ON
TUESDAY WITH THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN PASSING SHOWERS. THE
GFS IS INDICATING SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS TRADE WINDS DIMINISH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON THE NORTH COAST AND SHOULD GIVE RISE TO
SOME SUNNIER WEATHER. THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WITH
THE ENTRANCE OF A NEW HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE SHOWERS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE ONLY A MINIMAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN BODES
FOR ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WEATHER AND NO MAJOR
WAVES OR COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT MVFR AT TIMES IN SCT
SHRA...MAINLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND TISX. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 15-30 KT BLO FL150.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE REACHED THE MAXIMUM LEVELS THAT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THIS WEEK...BUT WILL SUBSIDE ONLY SLOWLY UNTIL
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE UP AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR MOST EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 76 82 / 30 30 40 50
STT 77 85 76 86 / 30 20 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
416 AM AST MON JAN 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. A COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE FROM THE U.S. WHICH WILL SHOVE THE HIGH
PRESSURE FARTHER EAST AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED AS PATCHES OF MOISTURE
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE TRADES BUT WITH LITTLE WAVE
ACTIVITY TO CAUSE MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS. DEEPER MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ARRIVING LATE FRI AND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LOCAL TAF SITES...WITH SOME VCSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO EAS-NORTHEAST
AT AROUND 10 KT UNTIL 05/14Z...INCREASING TO 15-20KT AND GUSTY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE DOWN BUT VERY SLIGHTLY AT AREA BUOYS
BUT SCATTEROMETERS AND MODELS SUGGEST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 25 KNOTS THROUGH TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO
THAT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AND EXPECT SMALL DECREASES FOR WINDS/SEAS
TONIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL DROP OFF WILL WAIT UNTIL WED/THU.

&&

.FIRE WX...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON PUERTO RICO SOUTH COAST
AND WINDS WILL RETURN AGAIN TODAY. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER RED FLAG CONDITIONS AND KBDI VALUES ARE ALSO ON THE CUSP.
SOLAR RADIATION IS ALSO NOT YET VERY SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SEPARATIONS AT 800 MB WILL NOT BE IN EXCESS OF 10C UNTIL
POSSIBLY IN LATE AFTERNOON BUT ACCORDING TO GFS THE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE FALLING QUITE RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH CONCERN TO ISSUE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT BUT RED
FLAG APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 82 71 / 30 40 50 30
STT 86 74 86 75 / 20 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST MON JAN 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AROUND SAINT CROIX AND JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND RETREAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE EXTENDING OUT
OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS PUSHED OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE RE-FORMING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA
STRAIT WILL BE COMPRESSED BY AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL THEN RE-
FORM NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRINGE OF A MID
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MID
LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY UNTIL FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SUDDENLY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF
MARYLAND ON TUESDAY CAUSING THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RENEWED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY AND SUNDAY CAUSING
TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND TO
GENERATE MORE FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MAXIMUM IN THE SHALLOW MOISTURE SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE MIMIC PRODUCT EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA AND BROUGHT
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS IN RAPIDLY PASSING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. ANOTHER MAXIMUM WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN AROUND DAWN ON TUESDAY POSSIBLY DAMPENING THE CAMELS IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR
THE ARRIVAL OF THE 3 KINGS. NEVERTHELESS MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE UNDER ONE TENTH INCH OVERNIGHT. PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE RULE EVEN THOUGH A WEAK AND GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS IN
PROGRESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN BRINGING
SURGES OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEGINNING AT BELOW ONE INCH AND CULMINATING NEAR 1.8 INCHES
ON MONDAY...BUT WITH A SECONDARY PEAK OF 1.7 INCHES ON SUNDAY. THE
TRADE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER
MID-WEEK AND AGAIN CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAD NOT MADE THIS AS STRONG AS THE EVENT
EXPERIENCED THIS WEEKEND IN PREVIOUS RUNS...IT IS AGAIN
STRENGTHENING IN ITS SOLUTION FOR THE UP-COMING WEEKEND. HENCE
BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER...THOUGH BETTER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGE IN CHARACTER OR IMPACT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...SOME VCSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SFC WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND
10 KT OVERNIGHT...15-30 KT ABV FL010. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SOME WITH SEAS IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF THE WATERS AROUND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SUBSIDING TO BELOW 7 FEET IN RESPONSE TO
WEAKENING WINDS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DIPPED BRIEFLY BELOW 45
PERCENT AT CAMP SANTIAGO WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 27 MPH. RENEWED MOISTURE HAS RAISED THE RH IN THE LAST HOUR
HOWEVER. MOST OTHER AREAS HAVE NOT SEEN HUMIDITIES AS LOW. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 82 72 84 / 50 50 50 50
STT 74 86 76 86 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST TUE JAN 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO BAHAMAS IS
WEAKENING THOUGH WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED TRADE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN TOO AND THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW WITH SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AND BRIEF AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAS DRAWN MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 40W AND
30W AS FAR NORTH AS 15N. THE TUTT IS DECAYING AND WILL ALLOW THE
MOISTURE MOVE WESTWARD UNDERNEATH IT. BUT NO SIGNIFICANT LOW OR
MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WILL CARRY THE MOISTURE WESTWARD. AS A RESULT
THE MOISTURE WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND BEGIN ARRIVING INTO PR/USVI
PIECEMEAL BY LATE FRI. GFS SHOWS THE MOISTURE PASSING MAINLY IN
THE FRI-SUN PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. STATISTICALLY THAT WOULD BE GREATER THAN
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JANUARY...IF IT OCCURRED. GFS ALSO EXPECTS
AN EASTWARD MOVING 250 MB TROUGH TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA SAT
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINS. SO
FAR...BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS SEEM CERTAIN BUT THESE OTHERWISE
UNRELATED FEATURES WILL HAVE TO ARRIVE AT THE SAME TIME TO HAVE
MUCH CHANCE OF CAUSING ANYHING MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...SHRA ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER 06/13Z...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 06/22Z...CAUSING VCSH THEREAFTER. SFC WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE EAST...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AT AROUND 5-10
KT UNTIL 06/12Z...INCREASING THEREAFTER TO 10-20KT AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS ARE VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THU. BUT THE RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING TO
THE BAHAMAS WILL BUILD AGAIN BEGINNING FRI AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH AS THEY WERE THIS LAST
WEEKEND. A NORTHERLY SWELL TRAIN ALSO BEGINS TO ARRIVE FRI NIGHT
WHICH WILL CAUSE A MIXED SEA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 83 72 / 30 50 50 30
STT 86 74 86 74 / 40 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST TUE JAN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY WILL RETREAT AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEAKENS AND MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE IN THE WEEK AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL ENTER AND DISSIPATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REGENERATES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE REST OF
THIS WEEK. WEAK TROUGHING WILL DIG INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LEAVES THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN DOING SO WILL STRENGTHEN THE
LOCAL TRADE WINDS. LOCAL TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
FOLLOWING WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE AREA TODAY
DAMPENING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO EAST OF A LINE
FROM GUAYAMA TO AGUADILLA. MOST SHOWERS WERE LESS THAN ONE TENTH
INCH. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BUT ARE STILL
CARRYING PATCHES OF MOISTURE GENERATING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME...MAINLY ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN UNTIL SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY MOISTURE
WILL ALSO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RISE
FROM NEAR ONE INCH TO ALMOST 1.9 INCHES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS...SHOWERS THAT WERE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE ISLAND LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
SEEN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...IT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE MORE TROPICAL
NATURE OF THE AIR. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN ON
SUNDAY...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...BUT AFTER THIS MAXIMUM ON SUNDAY
MOISTURE DOES NOT RETURN TO THE LIMITED AMOUNTS LATER NEXT WEEK
THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED LATELY. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
INCREASE AFTER FRIDAY...NO MAJOR RAINFALL OR STRONG SYSTEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. -SHRA OVER THE WATERS WITH TOPS AROUND 10 KFT COULD
BRIEFLY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND/USVI AND NORTHERN
PR TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT
10-20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IN
OUR AREA IS SHOWING LESS THAN 7 FEET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SMALL AREA WELL SOUTH OF CABO ROJO. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC ARE
DIMINISHING SLOWLY BUT INNER WATERS WILL BE LESS THAN 7 FEET THIS
EVENING EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA AROUND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
PUERTO RICO. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY IN BOTH THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY NIGHT...PEAKING ON MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 73 84 / 50 50 30 30
STT 75 86 75 85 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST WED JAN 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE LOW EXISTS THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S....CAUSING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS WEEK AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ENTER
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY DRY TODAY AND THURSDAY...INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...THE ACCUMULATIONS WERE
MINIMAL. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSE TO ONE INCH BY 8AM LOCAL TIME...THEN STAYING
CLOSE TO 1.0 TO 1.15 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS IN STORE FOR THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH
EXITS THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S....THE LOCAL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND SO WILL THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR COULD GET PASSING
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND DAYTIME HOURS THIS WEEKEND. IN
TERMS OF WINDS...EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON
FRIDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNDAY
WHEN THE WIND REALLY PICS UP...GETTING CLOSE TO 25 MPH. THIS MAY
BE A BIT BULLISH...BUT IT SHOWS CLEARLY THAT WINDS WILL PICK
UP...THIS ALSO MEANS THAT THE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH NNW SWELLS EXPECTED TO COME IN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP VRY SLGT CHC BRF MVFR IN SHRA THRU THU. WIND BLO
FL150 E 15-25 KT BCMG 12-20 KT TONITE AND 8-15 KT THU.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TODAY
AND THURSDAY...THEN BUILD AGAIN FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GROUP
OF NNW SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING SEAS
UPWARDS OF 8 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 84 72 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 74 86 75 / 30 30 30 40

[HurricaneFan]

It looks like they drop the TUTT(to the east of the Islands) from the forecast.Does that mean they're not expecting moisture to come from the TUTT again during the weekend?

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST WED JAN 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
WILL SLIP EAST TO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY
EVENING...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW UNTIL A WEAK
TROUGH PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF
SOUTH AMERICA WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT RETURN TO NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LIMITED MOISTURE AT
MID LEVELS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENSCONCED IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC
UNITED STATES AND REINFORCE THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND PEAKING MONDAY. A SECOND HIGH WILL ALSO ENTER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CARRIED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
GRADUALLY THINNED OUT DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME AREAS OF
EASTERN PUERTO RICO BEING COMPLETELY MISSED WHILE OTHERS ON THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS RECEIVED UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH ACCORDING TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DUAL-POL RADAR. MOST
AREAS HAD ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THOUGH. MODELS ARE
REMAINING VERY CONSISTENT IN THEIR FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT
850 MB LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING
LATE TONIGHT FROM JUST BELOW ONE INCH TO ALMOST 2 INCHES BY
MONDAY. STABILITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE RATHER HIGH FOR
US...HOWEVER...REACHING ONLY MINUS 3.7 FOR THE LIFTED INDEX SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO MOISTURE...THOUGH INCREASING...REMAINS MAINLY
BELOW 500 MB. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY...AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE
CONSERVATIVE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE
BEGINNING MONDAY...BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN MUCH
THE SAME PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS BEEN FORECASTING THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT BEYOND 10 DAYS...THAT IS BEYOND 17
JAN...FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AT THE
MOMENT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST SYSTEM OF
ANY SIGNIFICANCE THIS YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WI ISOLD SHRA THRU THU. MOST SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS
TO MVFR. WIND BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT BCMG 12-20 KT TONITE AND 8-16 KT
THU.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 72 84 / 30 30 40 40
STT 74 86 75 86 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

It looks like they drop the TUTT(to the east of the Islands) from the forecast.Does that mean they're not expecting moisture to come from the TUTT again during the weekend?

It looks like moisture will come to the islands anyway despite the TUTT not passing thru as strong high pressure will push all that moisture towards us on the weekend. Stay tuned for more details about that strong cold front for January 1l.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST THU JAN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. TODAY. FOR FRIDAY...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S AND WILL MOVE EAST....CAUSING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL EXIT THE EAST
COAST OF THE U.S. ON MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ENTER
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY DRY TODAY BUT INCREASING MOISTURE AND
WIND SPEED ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...THE ACCUMULATIONS WERE
MINIMAL. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.1 INCHES BY 8AM LOCAL
TIME...THEN STAYING CLOSE TO 1.1 TO 1.2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCUMULATION IS IN STORE
FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. WESTERN PR HAS A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE LIMITED AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINES WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING.


WINDS TODAY WILL BE MODERATE...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND SO WILL THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON
FRIDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNDAY
WHEN THE WIND REALLY PICKS UP...GETTING CLOSE TO 25 MPH. THIS ALSO
MEANS THAT THE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY
SWELLS EXPECTED TO COME IN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ONE MORE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE LATEST GFS MODEL BRINGS QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND...IN PARTICULAR FOR SUNDAY. A BAND
OF MOISTURE PASSES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING BRIEFLY TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
HOVERS AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES ON SATURDAY THEN INCREASING TO
ALMOST 1.9 INCHES ON SUNDAY. TO PUT THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE...1.9
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY...SO THE MODEL SUGGESTS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE COMING IN FOR SUNDAY. HAVING SAID
THAT...THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR BETTER SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR...VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE USVI. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SHALL BE ADJUSTED AS CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETS
BETTER.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR WI ISOLD/SCT SHRA NR TIST/TISX/TNCM/TJSJ/TKPK THRU
FRI. MOST SHRA WILL NOT LWR CONDS TO MVFR BUT BCMG MORE LKLY ON FRI.
WIND BLO FL150 E 5-18 KT INCR 15-25 KT EARLY ON FRI.


&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE EASTERLY TRADES TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS DUE TO NORTHERLY SWELL BY LATE FRIDAY
AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BY SUNDAY AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 73 / 30 40 50 40
STT 86 74 86 76 / 30 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST THU JAN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT TH REGION FRO TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE INCREASE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PASSING
SHOWERS WERE NOTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW AFFECTING THE EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES INDICATED A
BIG AREA OF MOISTURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 1.7 INCHES.

ANOTHER BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS A RESULT...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED. AN INCREASE IN WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN BEGINNING ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR XCP OCNL PASSING SHRA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND MVFR CIGS PSBL AND BTWN 08/18Z AND 09/01Z AT TJMZ...HOWEVER
CONDS WILL DETERIORATE FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS SETTING IN AFT 09/04Z AND SOME MVFR OVER ALL
BUT TJPS AND TJMZ IN PASSING SHRA. WINDS ENE TO E INCRG FROM 10 TO
20 KT TO 15 TO 30 KTS BY 09/16Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. BOUY REMAINS WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHEN WE WILL SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN SEAS AND WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 73 84 / 50 80 80 60
STT 74 86 76 86 / 20 80 80 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1010 PM AST THU JAN 8 2015

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL
WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WITH A SMALL SLOT OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR NOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER BY EARLY
MORNING EXPECT ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED
SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANYING A
WEAKLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH. SO FAR ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PATS OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR NOW ON FRIDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS SURGE OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WILL BE ENHANCED BY SHORT
WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THAT
TIME. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM OVERNIGHT FORECAST GRIDS
BASED ON PRESENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS. MARINE WAVE HEIGHTS
AND OFFSHORE WINDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
AND DATA FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS.