Tropical Storm Chris

[Derek Ortt]

you know you're not getting something that specific out of me yet

[ConvergenceZone]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

Well............

some of you might not get your big hurricane afterall. New model run shows some of them hitting the DR head on (or trending further south). IF this is true, we'd be talking much weaker storm................


"HOWEVER AN EVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD. INDEED... THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE. "

Do I still smell dissipation ??

This is a very possible scenerio. I've seen that happen to many many storms. It's just like placing a wall to the northwest of the storm, thus the turn west. The GDFL is a pretty good model! That's usually won out most of the time.

[LightningInTheEye]

Uh, Ken, Derek Ortt is still not taking model guidance (i.e. GFDL especially) that serious since is still initiates Chris as a tropical wave.

I don't know how many times I have posted this, but here goes again...

"What are the chances of this storm going even further north then the Keys??"-wxwonder12
"not very good at the present time, though a south Florida mainlan strike is still possible"-Derek Ortt

Well the following certainly doesn't sound as reassuring as last night's "It's a northern Cuba storm" prediction...

"http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
A lot of the model shifted northward on the 06Z run than last night."-SouthFloridawx

"Chris is ever so slightly north of the previous track. There is little change in the forecast reasoning from 12 hours ago. Only slight difference is a slight right shift in the longer term forecast locations, in agreement with the latest guidance. This keeps the storm over the Florida Straits, very near the southern Keys in a little less than 5 days. The ridge may not be quite as strong as the models were suggesting."-Derek Ortt

[PTrackerLA]

you know you're not getting something that specific out of me yet

Hey it didn't hurt to ask .

[ConvergenceZone]

you know you're not getting something that specific out of me yet

Personally, I think if it follows the GDFL, it won't be a USA threat at all, but we'll just have to wait and see. Hopefully the ridge will continue to build in strong.

[brunota2003]

Tomorrow's Plan Of The Day:

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 02 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
         VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUG 2006
         TSPOD NUMBER.....06-064

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM CHRIS
       FLIGHT ONE                     FLIGHT TWO
       A. 03/1800,04/0000Z            A. 04/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0603A CHRIS           B. NOAA9 0703A CHRIS
       C. 03/1615Z                    C. 03/1730Z
       D. 20.5N 67.2W                 D. NA
       E. 03/1700Z TO 04/0000Z        E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE                   FLIGHT FOUR
       A. 04/0600,1200Z               A. 04/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0803A CHRIS           B. NOAA9 0903A CHRIS
       C. 04/0415Z                    C. 04/0530Z
       D. 21.1N 69.0W                 D. NA
       E. 04/0500Z TO 04/1200Z        E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HRLYS FIXES.
       TWO MORE G-IV MISSIONS AT 12 HR INTERVALS. A P-3 SFMR
       MISSION FOR 05/0000Z.

I figured since this is where all of the data is going...that this belongs in here...todays plan of the day has not come out yet though...

[EDR1222]

Just a thought. I know the thinking of most experts is that the storm will take a path north of what the GFDL is forecasting. Just wondering if maybe the GFDL is picking on something that the others are not, kind of like the SW turn that Katrina took last year as it was approaching Florida's southeast coast.

Thoughts and comments welcome.

[SouthFloridawx]

The gfs takes Chris or whatever is left of chris into south florida. 06Z
Nogaps takes chris into south florida also. 00Z

[Canelaw99]

Link, southfloridawx???

[cheezyWXguy]

you know you're not getting something that specific out of me yet

Personally, I think if it follows the GDFL, it won't be a USA threat at all, but we'll just have to wait and see. Hopefully the ridge will continue to build in strong.

Did you read any of this, CZ? The GFDL, along with many other models continue to initailize this wrong...Last night the GFS initailized it in the Bahamas

[flhurricaneguy]

as usual i believe the tracks will shift from north to south throughout this whole thing. thats nothing new

[Brent]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

Well............

some of you might not get your big hurricane afterall. New model run shows some of them hitting the DR head on (or trending further south). IF this is true, we'd be talking much weaker storm................


"HOWEVER AN EVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD. INDEED... THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE. "

Do I still smell dissipation ??

That's actually north of last night's runs. This isn't going to Hispanola.

[westmoon]

Remember Charlie (04) At the last minute It turned and caught everyone off guard. Seams stormes that begin with the letter C are very sneaky............ At this point I don't think we can be sure of anything but the next 12 hours, after that it's anyones guess

[Jevo]

Nothing makes me giggle more than when people start pointing and screaming about the BAMs and the outliers.... At this point there needs to be a turn due west for the next 2 days for Chris to visit our friends in the DR......

Cheers

[weunice]

OK, dumb question ...

Someone brought up annular so I went and read the Wikipedia article on it and it mentions Epsilon last season. I thought annular hurricanes were typically limited to strong storms? Is it possible for a hurricane to be annular in less intense phases?

[ConvergenceZone]

you know you're not getting something that specific out of me yet

Personally, I think if it follows the GDFL, it won't be a USA threat at all, but we'll just have to wait and see. Hopefully the ridge will continue to build in strong.

Did you read any of this, CZ? The GFDL, along with many other models continue to initailize this wrong...Last night the GFS initailized it in the Bahamas

Yes, but perhaps more data is coming in regarding the strength of the ridge building in, which is why the GDFL is trying to take it westward.

[KatDaddy]

Hoping Chris does not make it to the TX Coast. If it does it will be crossing very warm GOM waters. Perhaps another CAT 5 in the GOM early next week.

[x-y-no]

GHCC sattelite server is getting real slow ... oh for the good old days when only a few people knew about it.

[drezee]

GHCC sattelite server is getting real slow ... oh for the good old days when only a few people knew about it.

Very true I only have about 2 other sites and I KEEP them to myself now!!!

[Air Force Met]

you know you're not getting something that specific out of me yet

Float like a butterfly...sting like a bee...

That's what it takes to be in meteorolo...gee...