Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[ExBailbonds]

Oh boy!! Great that means it will cut over cuba wher cuba is relativly flat.

[AtlanticWind]

This run looks about the sameas the last

[AJC3]

:uarrow:

At 54 hours it makes a NW turn already and the ridge is broken across peninusla FL to the north.....

this run may be more RIGHT actually:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _054.shtml

New H66 850MB vort panel is a wee bit SW of the H72 panel from 18Z

[Extremeweatherguy]

42 hours, looks further south than 18z was:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042m.gif

i think this will be a bit west of earlier runs.

Yeah, it is further south because the model has Fay take a random SW dip toward Jamaica between hours 18 and 30. Whether or not this dip becomes reality or is just model fantasy is yet to be seen. Personally, I think it will probably wind up being bogus...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

84 Hours:

[AJC3]

New H66 850MB vort panel is a wee bit SW of the H72 panel from 18Z

Still SW of the 18Z run at H84.

[GreenSky]

Doesn't GFS have a bad habit of overdoing weaknesses/troughs...if so, I would take GFS as an eastern outlier.

MW even said, "Also...it is worth noting that the models have had an issue with trying to turn west-moving hurricanes too soon (dating back to 2005 with Ivan and in 2006 with Edouard) moving through this part of the basin. I strongly suspect that a series of small westward adjustments will be made to the forecast track as we move into the weekend."

So I expect to see more and more westward adjustments...Derek has been right on with NHC following up on his track afterwards

[AtlanticWind]

Weaker in this run , could explain why it is a tad more west.

[hurricanej]

New H66 850MB vort panel is a wee bit SW of the H72 panel from 18Z

Still SW of the 18Z run at H84.

yep, not a huge shift by most regards, but it is SW of the 18z point.

[AL Chili Pepper]

that little dip that extreme noted could also lead to it being a little further west on this run. Overall though, not much change through 84.

[AJC3]

New H66 850MB vort panel is a wee bit SW of the H72 panel from 18Z

Still SW of the 18Z run at H84.

yep, not a huge shift by most regards, but it is SW of the 18z point.

The trend continues. New H108 is ever-so-slightly west of the old H114 panel

[GreenSky]

that little dip that extreme noted could also lead to it being a little further west on this run. Overall though, not much change through 84.

AL, I would be feeling uncomfortable if I were you...my gut feeling is that the models will keep trending west until about your neck of the woods...I am now thinking an Alabama landfall is in the making

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS..further west..hmmm

[AJC3]

Landfall 18Z WED right up Apalachee Bay. Not good.

[twister]

What chance does Fay have to be a major at LF taking into consideration the mods have been in decent agreement tracking her more west? Thanks.

[RL3AO]

What chance does Fay have to be a major at LF taking into consideration the mods have been in decent agreement tracking her more west? Thanks.

Probably rising by the hour.

[Ivanhater]

00Z Canadian..still on a NW heading it seems..sigh

[jinftl]

Would a stronger or weaker system than is currently forecast have any implications on movement....i.e., would a stronger fay be more influenced by factors that could allow a more northerly course or earlier turn...or a weaker fay might track more west and turn north later?

[Wx_Warrior]

Save you a post by posting the Canadian (stinks).

EDIT for SFL: Fay may sink her dentures into west Florida then into panhandle.

[SouthFLTropics]

Save you a post by posting the Canadian...Let's hope Fay stays weak because Florida make get it all it wants out of her.

Huh?