ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[HarlequinBoy]

I'm sure once Gustav is gone attention will shift toward Hanna.

I was kind of shocked to see the forecast change. I had been too caught up in Gustav.

[AJC3]

There is a distance scale on the graphic. Get a ruler check it out.

EDIT: I not bashing the NHC here just pointing out that this cone is much wider than normal. This is one tricky forcast for sure.

It's not wider than normal. The radius of the probability circle at 72 hours is 170NM. 2/3 of that is around 113NM. You wind up with a cone that should be about 225NM across. The scale is in statue miles, so multiplying 225 by 1.15 to convert nautical miles to statute miles gives you....ta daaaaa.... 258SM.

edit...wait a minute...the radius of the *2/3 prob circle* at h72 is 170NM. So If I'm reading this right, the error cone should actually be 340NM across, or 391SM across at H72 hours. Hanna's cone is definitely NOT wider than normal!

[ExBailbonds]

There is a distance scale on the graphic. Get a ruler check it out.

EDIT: I not bashing the NHC here just pointing out that this cone is much wider than normal. This is one tricky forcast for sure.

It's not wider than normal. The radius of the probability circle at 72 hours is 170NM. 2/3 of that is around 113NM. You wind up with a cone that should be about 225NM across. The scale is in statue miles, so multiplying 225 by 1.15 to convert nautical miles to statute miles gives you....ta daaaaa.... 258SM.

edit...wait a minute...the radius of the *2/3 prob circle* at h72 is 170NM. So If I'm reading this right, the error cone should actually be 340NM across, or 391SM across at H72 hours. Hanna's cone is definitely NOT wider than normal!

Ok I give up I think it is just decieving to me because it is all bunched up for the first 72 hours making it look much wider than it really is.

[AJC3]

Ok I give up I think it is just decieving to me because it is all bunched up for the first 72 hours making it look much wider than it really is.

Yeah, that's probably what it is. Here...this may help you out...Compare the size of the circles at 72 hours between Gus and Hanna. I had to resize (enlarge) Gus's graphic to get the scales to match as close as possible.

[windycity]

I think hanna montana is going on a " Best of Both Worlds" tour, she wants to see more than just Florida!!!

[Category 5]

I think hanna montana is going on a " Best of Both Worlds" tour, she wants to see more than just Florida!!!

That was really... REALLY bad.

[ExBailbonds]

Ok I give up I think it is just decieving to me because it is all bunched up for the first 72 hours making it look much wider than it really is.

Yeah, that's probably what it is. Here...this may help you out...Compare the size of the circles at 72 hours between Gus and Hanna. I had to resize (enlarge) Gus's graphic to get the scales to match as close as possible.

The 11pm hanna 3 day cone looks like an egg. That is not normal. LOL

[windycity]

That is one odd looking cone, i agree, it does look like a egg. Hanna is making us crack, now that is BAD.LOL

[AJC3]

That is one odd looking cone, i agree, it does look like a egg. Hanna is making us crack, now that is BAD.LOL

OK, I'll go one better. It's the top of a giant light bulb emerging from the waters of the Bermuda Triangle! The track represents the filament.

[ExBailbonds]

That is one odd looking cone, i agree, it does look like a egg. Hanna is making us crack, now that is BAD.LOL

OK, I'll go one better. It's the top of a giant light bulb emerging from the waters of the Bermuda Triangle! The track represents the filament.

lol I like you. you have a sense of humor. By the the way i like melbourne we have friends there.
When we go up there we always stop in at the county line bar.

[cpdaman]

anyone have a link to the microwave data for hanna

this is the data that the NHC used to find the center

[JtSmarts]

Hopefully if Hanna comes our way in SC she can burst the severe drought that faces much of our state. (No Hurricane please)

[bahamaswx]

Hopefully if Hanna comes our way in SC she can burst the severe drought that faces much of our state. (No Hurricane please)

Rain from Hanna just started here. God knows I need it.

[artist]

next recon -

2. TROPICAL STORM HANNA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 01/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0208A HANNA
C. 01/1300Z
D. 23.70N 71.6W
E. 01/1500Z TO 01/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[artist]

anyone have a link to the microwave data for hanna

this is the data that the NHC used to find the center

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd-l.jpg

I believe it is the same as the Dvorak.

[lbvbl]

I think this is the longest we've gone without a significant shift in the track... maybe theyre on to something

[deltadog03]

Hanna does look really good...Sure its getting sheared, but holding on nicely...These are those sneaky type systems.

[Sanibel]

Good burst. TWC track towards South Carolina.

[cpdaman]

most all guidance shows this sitting and spinning thru tuesday (correct me if i'm not accurate)

upwelling should not be an issue with some of the highest TCHP in the atlantic under hanna

then after that some sort of NW movement is supposed to commene , that is when florida should see there closest pass (and hopefully by tuesday the models have a better handle on how far W the nw movement will take it )

shear appears boderline for strengthening and any let up could see this spin up to a cane faster IMO

[AJC3]

anyone have a link to the microwave data for hanna

this is the data that the NHC used to find the center

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd-l.jpg

I believe it is the same as the Dvorak.

Different type of imagery, actually you get it from the NRL site.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html