ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

That little burst of convection due north of the Mona passage is where are little remnant tornado was headed. That is also near a favored area where the center of the building anticyclone is located..

Edit: the anticyclone is currently centered a little further SE just north of PR.

[CDO62]

There are way too many people in this thread who are calling 99L dead when there is plenty of evidence otherwise; not the least of which is the Euro. Calm down and actually utilize the tools that are out there.

I agree. 80% chance of development from the NHC.

Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1100 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure centered about 100 miles north of
Puerto Rico is producing gale-force winds over water to the north
of the Lesser Antilles. However, satellite images indicate that
shower activity has become less organized than earlier today, and
the low continues to lack a well-defined center. Although upper-
level winds are only marginally conducive for development, this
system could still become a tropical cyclone during the next couple
of days. Environmental conditions have the potential to become more
conducive for development over the weekend when the system is near
the central or northwestern Bahamas.

Regardless of development, gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible
flash floods and mudslides are likely to occur over portions
of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the
southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of days.
Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices
and High Seas Forecasts from the National Weather Service for
further details.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. Because of the large uncertainties
regarding this system's development and future track, it is too
early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur in the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida or beyond.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Blake

[ROCK]

its not dead....multiple centers.... nothing dominant. Going to take some time...

[SFLcane]

finally starting to see the low level inflow from the sw .. shows up nicely on radar in the mona passage. you can see it finally bending in towards the llc. .. the weak rotation near HR is of course dead now over the mountains. convection should be coming in the next few hours.

Look forward to your updates through the evening and coming days..Thx

[ronjon]

Nothing is going to form until the Bahamas.

[jlauderdal]

Nothing is going to form until the Bahamas.

Not even a tstorm to humor us..

[AutoPenalti]

Nothing is going to form until the Bahamas.

Not even a tstorm to humor us..

A T-Storm with 70kt winds!

[Steve]

Is this some odd case the models just can't handle well?

Good question and questionable outcome. Are some of the models confused by the split energy which is why some have put a downstream low developing in the W Gulf, or do they see a piece maybe peeling off later and organizing when it intersects with a surface trough or did they just not handle the multiple spins and played them out as individual systems? With the E/W trough to the north, and Fiona's remnants brushed up against that frontal area in the Atlantic, there's maybe a lot going on. It will be cool to see how they resolve and also if the real weather gives an answer

[Tireman4]

Let me paraphrase Dr. Neil Frank, "it is not finished until all the clouds and moisture associated with the system are dissapated". That fixes the call Bones thinkong.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection slowly on the increase per radar and satellite. LLC still void though...

[robbielyn]

It is time to call Dr. McCoy in for 99L. 99L looks dead nothing more than a rain maker of anything. Just an opinion.

It has roughly 1000 miles of warm water, I wouldn't call bones just yet.

I agree. No time for Bones now.

Just an opinion: too much -removed- on here this evening.

Warm water is only one factor in storm formation. All the ingredients must come together. The TW has shear and dry air to contend with and maybe even an upper level low could end up ahead of it. I can see why people are skeptical of its successful formation due to all these factors. It has an uphill battle thats for sure. But as Levi said if it can build convection around the main llc which isn't even closed yet, maybe it can survive. Thats what makes this so exciting, even though frustrating is all the players involved that could make hermine or break her. I wishcast the GFS pans out cuz I dont like what the Euro wants to do. I believe Louisiana would get some if not big effects and they can't deal with that right now. I suspect the euro if its right on developing this system, will head right towards the north central gulf states. I dont buy the up the west coast of fl to apalach scenario. every year it says that with at least one model run almost all the storms. The only storm that almost went up the whole west coast(forecasted to get all the way up into hernando county) but stopped short at punta gorda was Charlie in 2004 and that was only cuz it had a really strong trough for August come down and push into the state. I think it hits South fl straight nw to mobile or points west if the Euro pans out. Besides I got a feeling this is only the beginning of whats in store for the rest of the season.

[Steve]

By the way, Bastardi is all in per recent tweets. He says major in the Gulf and cites the rarity of the ECMWF's track and goes 100 miles or more west. I don't have an opinion on his take one way or the other. Its wait and see mode imho.

[psyclone]

Note the 48 hour odds have been decreased to a coin flip whereas the 5 day odds remain @ 80%...so those calling for bones have an even chance of feeling some level of vindication...even if short lived.

[Alyono]

The same upper low that may kill Gaston may be what allows this to intensify

It is proping up the upper ridge. The band of shear is already lifting to the north. If this upper ridge props up, it will blow the MU forecast to shreds.

Yes, there could be an upper low, but it could be split to the SW of the system, a very dangerous place for it to be

[DESTRUCTION5]

By the way, Bastardi is all in per recent tweets. He says major in the Gulf and cites the rarity of the ECMWF's track and goes 100 miles or more west. I don't have an opinion on his take one way or the other. Its wait and see mode imho.

24 hrs ago he said NC. Pin the tail on the donkey.

[TheStormExpert]

A very well put together explanation of the possible outcomes for 99L by Senior Hurricane Expert @ TWC Bryan Norcross. He mentions the slightest potential 99L could pull a Humberto.

 https://twitter.com/twcbryan/status/768581736766795777

[stormchasr]

Looks like "Project Storm Fury" at work.

[GeneratorPower]

The same upper low that may kill Gaston may be what allows this to intensify

It is proping up the upper ridge. The band of shear is already lifting to the north. If this upper ridge props up, it will blow the MU forecast to shreds.

Yes, there could be an upper low, but it could be split to the SW of the system, a very dangerous place for it to be

Sorry but what is the "MU"? I've been on this forum for 11 years and haven't seen that.

[TheStormExpert]

The same upper low that may kill Gaston may be what allows this to intensify

It is proping up the upper ridge. The band of shear is already lifting to the north. If this upper ridge props up, it will blow the MU forecast to shreds.

Yes, there could be an upper low, but it could be split to the SW of the system, a very dangerous place for it to be

Sorry but what is the "MU"? I've been on this forum for 11 years and haven't seen that.

It's what he calls the GFS.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/768602167007703040