Ivan Advisories

[USAwx1]

:eek:

I think the same was observed in andrew's deepening phase prior to landfall. not 100% positive though, I would have to check on it.

[yoda]

Thanks...

I wonder if he is planning more for tonight, or is going to break and wait for tomorrow?

I guess these maps are not much use!!! lol
He is supposedly in cat 3 waters right now!


-Eric

We will find out in an hour....

[PurdueWx80]

000
URNT12 KNHC 090710
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0710Z
B. 13 DEG 45 MIN N
69 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2404 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 140 DEG 146 KT
G. 052 DEG 7 NM
H. 922 MB
I. 10 C/ 3064 M
J. 20 C/ 3052 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 1009A IVAN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 154 KT N QUAD 0525Z. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN EYEWALL.
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION.

[Matthew5]

Andrew had that Pressure!

[PurdueWx80]

I officially just felt nauseated for the first time this season.

[yoda]

000
URNT12 KNHC 090710
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0710Z
B. 13 DEG 45 MIN N
69 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2404 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 140 DEG 146 KT
G. 052 DEG 7 NM
H. 922 MB
I. 10 C/ 3064 M
J. 20 C/ 3052 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 1009A IVAN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 154 KT N QUAD 0525Z. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN EYEWALL.
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION.

Frequent Lightning? Dear God!!

[KeyLargoDave]

Low pressure like that always make me queasy.

[Fego]

Jamaica is next and their meteorologists threaten to strike. What next!!!!

[southerngale]

O

[southerngale]

M

[southerngale]

G

[southerngale]

!!

[shaner]

Asterisk? Methinks it's freakin' bullseye.

[yoda]

Cool way of posting Southerngale!!

[USAwx1]

Thanks...

I wonder if he is planning more for tonight, or is going to break and wait for tomorrow?

I guess these maps are not much use!!! lol
He is supposedly in cat 3 waters right now!


-Eric

well it is a good tool, however I like to look at the actual SSTs in the path of the system.

the New 0z ECMWF is escentially a repeat of Charley, and IF we consider SSTs in the SE portion of the Gulf between the West coast of FLA and CUBA...Ivan would be passing over an area of +30 C Sea Surface temperatures, which will mean plenty of latent heat is available for it to maintain it's current intensity--barring any interaction w/ Pronounced shear and or Dry air.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/atl_anal.gif





Little description needed here, you can pretty much tell what the EC is suggesting.

Plus we all know what kind of business charley pulled just before landfall w/ similar SSTs.

[ColdFront77]

Don't know if anyone saw it just now, but on TWC...
They mentioned a new vortex msg that reported very frequent lightning and large hail in the eye wall. TWC said that this was very rare! Ivan sure is a beast!

Hurricane Hugo produced hail for four minutes (from 1208Z to 1212Z / 8:08 to 8:12 am AST) at San Juan International Airport.

Perhaps hail in hurricanes is rare because the wind is just too strong.

Dr. Robert Sheets has observed hail aloft in only a few storms.

[Rainband]

None of these models can tell us where this storm will go. it's too early. I am hoping it curves way east of Florida.

[Derecho]

Lightning in the eye = dry air has somehow mixed in there.

Nope. Eywall lightning is a common feature of rapidly intensifying hurricanes.

There used to be an excellent paper on the subject on the FSU site by Rich Henning, an Air Force Reserve recon crewmember who was in grad school there...no longer on the site, sadly. Was either a Thesis or Dissertation.

[hurricanefloyd5]

[Derecho]

Nope, it's slowing.

Speed between the last recon of the last flight around 8PM and the first recon VORTEX of this flight was 13 kts....

Speed between the two VORTEXes of this flight was 10 kts.