TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gkrangers]

Ok..this is very rough..its a few hudnred miles southeast of Wilmington, NC on Monday. Ok, heres the rough patch. Tuesday, I don't know where it is. There is kind of a depression in the ridge off of the Outer Banks..so it may be in that area, off shore. Wednesday its northeast of the outerbanks..and Thursday its hundreds of miles east of New Jersey and well south of New England.

[superfly]

The 5 AM discussion should be very interesting.

[clfenwi]

Ok..this is very rough..its a few hudnred miles southeast of Wilmington, NC on Monday. Ok, heres the rough patch. Tuesday, I don't know where it is. There is kind of a depression in the ridge off of the Outer Banks..so it may be in that area, off shore. Wednesday its northeast of the outerbanks..and Thursday its hundreds of miles east of New Jersey and well south of New England.

Sounds like you're having the problems I was having last night figuring out what the Euro was trying to depict.

In other news, first 'cane of the season for the EPAC. Kind of disappointing, though, I had been thinking that it would be hilarious if Fernanda had gone from invest to hurricane in the whole time Irene was goofing around as a TD... almost happened...

[gkrangers]

Ok..this is very rough..its a few hudnred miles southeast of Wilmington, NC on Monday. Ok, heres the rough patch. Tuesday, I don't know where it is. There is kind of a depression in the ridge off of the Outer Banks..so it may be in that area, off shore. Wednesday its northeast of the outerbanks..and Thursday its hundreds of miles east of New Jersey and well south of New England.

Sounds like you're having the problems I was having last night figuring out what the Euro was trying to depict.

In other news, first 'cane of the season for the EPAC. Kind of disappointing, though, I had been thinking that it would be hilarious if Fernanda had gone from invest to hurricane in the whole time Irene was goofing around as a TD... almost happened...

I can piece together the times its at sea between the surface, 850, and 500..but not the day where it could make landfall.

Euro has a surface low maybe a hundred miles inland in NC..but I doubt its Irene. Probably keeps it offshore.

I think a track like this is very likely..how far west remains to be seen..but its gonna come in sharp, and slingshot right out. Should be a quick turn around if it makes landfall.

[clfenwi]

AFWA Position strength estimate:

B. 11/0531Z (62)
C. 23.9N/4
D. 59.2W/6
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/

SSD's

11/0545 UTC 23.3N 60.3W T2.5/2.5 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD's intensity estimate is unchanged, while AFWA's has increased.

[gkrangers]

AFWA Position strength estimate:

B. 11/0531Z (62)
C. 23.9N/4
D. 59.2W/6
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/

SSD's

11/0545 UTC 23.3N 60.3W T2.5/2.5 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD's intensity estimate is unchanged, while AFWA's has increased.

Could it be that Irene has finally got it together?

I was also just going to post that I think the center is right near 24N/59-60W.

[gkrangers]

208
WHXX01 KWBC 110643
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050811 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050811 0600 050811 1800 050812 0600 050812 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.9N 60.4W 25.1N 62.9W 26.4N 65.2W 27.6N 67.1W
BAMM 23.9N 60.4W 24.9N 62.8W 26.2N 65.0W 27.3N 66.6W
A98E 23.9N 60.4W 25.0N 62.9W 26.2N 65.1W 27.7N 67.1W
LBAR 23.9N 60.4W 25.0N 62.4W 26.2N 64.0W 27.6N 65.5W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 54KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050813 0600 050814 0600 050815 0600 050816 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.6N 68.8W 30.6N 72.0W 33.3N 73.7W 35.1N 72.4W
BAMM 28.1N 68.0W 29.6N 70.5W 31.1N 72.2W 31.9N 73.0W
A98E 29.1N 69.2W 32.5N 72.6W 35.5N 72.8W 38.5N 65.6W
LBAR 28.2N 66.8W 29.4N 68.7W 30.5N 70.6W 30.6N 72.4W
SHIP 59KTS 64KTS 64KTS 66KTS
DSHP 59KTS 64KTS 64KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.9N LONCUR = 60.4W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 22.8N LONM12 = 58.1W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 22.3N LONM24 = 56.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

[gkrangers]

Models are slightly left, no big changes.

[Coredesat]

Here's the CORRECT map:

[clfenwi]

AFWA Position strength estimate:

B. 11/0531Z (62)
C. 23.9N/4
D. 59.2W/6
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/

SSD's

11/0545 UTC 23.3N 60.3W T2.5/2.5 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD's intensity estimate is unchanged, while AFWA's has increased.

Could it be that Irene has finally got it together?

I was also just going to post that I think the center is right near 24N/59-60W.

Yeah, I agree more or less. I don't buy the SSD position estimate... I don't see anything to suggest the center being *both* that far south and west.

They are probably keeping continuity with some feature that they have been calling the center, whereas I've only been seriously looking at satellite for the past hour or so...

[gkrangers]

AFWA Position strength estimate:

B. 11/0531Z (62)
C. 23.9N/4
D. 59.2W/6
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/

SSD's

11/0545 UTC 23.3N 60.3W T2.5/2.5 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD's intensity estimate is unchanged, while AFWA's has increased.

Could it be that Irene has finally got it together?

I was also just going to post that I think the center is right near 24N/59-60W.

Yeah, I agree more or less. I don't buy the SSD position estimate... I don't see anything to suggest the center being *both* that far south and west.

They are definitely too far south I think...slighty too far west. AFWA is right on with 23.9N I think, and maybe slightly too far east.

Either way...its right around there and I don't think anyone can argue with a WNW motion right now.

[gkrangers]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropatl.html

good model page..not sure if you have that in your arsenal or not.

[Sanibel]

Still pulling up...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The storm is looking good. Its starting to feel that favable upper level enviroment. http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[clfenwi]

Definitely going to see a right-ward adjustment in the track forecast in the next advisory package. I don't see any feature that would be able to verify the forecast position for 12Z: 24.2N 61.5W...

[clfenwi]

Whoa, all of the sudden, in the last hour or two of satellite imagery there is some separation between the surface and mid-upper level clouds... might actually be a center visible right now...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/194.jpg

and if that is indeed the center visible, then Irene is rolling due west at the moment... the previous forecast for 12Z may verify yet...

[wxman57]

Better check this higher resolution visible image. Irene's center appears to be at 25.0N/61.6W at 5:24am CDT. LOoks like it's north of where the NHC had been estimating the position:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene68.gif">

[Nimbus]

Irene looks a lot better organized than she did yesterday morning at this time.
May still be too early for a landfall prediction, the NHC mentioned shifting the track back west when they get some more data.

She is spinning up and will tend to buck poleward into the ridge soon. We will have to wait and see how far north she gets and average the stair stepping motion.

As Irene travels into the southern part of the ridge she should increase forward speed along the west vector of the stairstepping motion and decrease forward speed as she trys to turn north.

The upper level flow is still pretty zonal and a trough digging south far enough to recurve Irene is no guarantee.

Small errors in ridge strength estimates and forward speed this far out have major track implications.

[wxwatcher91]

the SAL is INCREASING ahead of Irene

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow this storm can't get a break