Rita Recon Reports

[Derek Ortt]

to be honest, I have no idea what NHC has been doing with the wind speeds since yesterday. They have consistently been overstating the winds. Yesterdya, they were 30KT too high at times

[Droop12]

I happen to remember Ivan looked exactly like this about 6 hours before landfall.

[FunkMasterB]

They have consistently been overstating the winds.

As I recall, they did the same thing with Katrina, before she came ashore. I think they fudge the numbers up so that people don't get a false sense of security.

[Scorpion]

I remember Ivan looked alot like this before landfall too.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 240144
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 07 KNHC
0132. 3136N 08738W 06097 0370 123 027 085 181 027 06465 0000000000
0133 3134N 08740W 06097 0369 122 027 085 187 028 06464 0000000000
0133. 3133N 08742W 06096 0369 122 027 085 185 028 06463 0000000000
0134 3131N 08744W 06096 0368 126 027 091 167 027 06461 0000000000
0134. 3129N 08746W 06096 0367 121 026 095 153 027 06462 0000000000
0135 3127N 08748W 06096 0366 118 027 095 135 027 06460 0000000000
0135. 3125N 08750W 06094 0369 143 023 097 109 026 06461 0000000000
0136 3124N 08751W 06098 0366 153 016 097 117 017 06462 0000000000
0136. 3122N 08753W 06094 0366 173 016 095 127 017 06459 0000000000
0137 3120N 08755W 06100 0370 174 014 091 125 014 06468 0000000000
0137. 3118N 08757W 06096 0372 166 016 091 135 019 06466 0000000000
0138 3117N 08759W 06096 0370 158 017 101 131 019 06464 0000000000
0138. 3115N 08800W 06094 0368 152 016 097 111 019 06461 0000000000
0139 3113N 08802W 06097 0369 145 024 095 107 025 06465 0000000000
0139. 3112N 08804W 06090 0369 166 024 095 109 025 06458 0000000000
0140 3110N 08806W 06099 0368 175 024 089 125 025 06465 0000000000
0140. 3108N 08807W 06097 0368 171 023 093 121 024 06464 0000000000
0141 3106N 08809W 06097 0370 173 022 091 121 022 06465 0000000000
0141. 3105N 08811W 06095 0368 171 022 091 117 022 06462 0000000000
0142 3103N 08813W 06096 0367 170 022 087 123 022 06461 0000000000

[ALhurricane]

Well call me naive *waits* ok...

but if you're telling me a 930mb has less than Cat 3 winds, then I just don't believe you. I have heard too many debates recently about the accuracy of SFMR data to believe it hook, line, and sinker.

[Brent]

It's a stretch to call it a Cat 3 with that low of a pressure...

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 240154
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 08 KNHC
0142. 3101N 08814W 06097 0366 170 022 089 117 022 06462 0000000000
0143 3100N 08816W 06095 0366 166 022 091 129 024 06459 0000000000
0143. 3058N 08818W 06094 0366 172 025 093 123 025 06458 0000000000
0144 3056N 08820W 06098 0365 169 025 093 129 025 06462 0000000000
0144. 3055N 08821W 06097 0365 168 026 091 121 026 06461 0000000000
0145 3053N 08823W 06097 0365 165 026 091 123 026 06461 0000000000
0145. 3051N 08825W 06095 0365 165 026 087 121 027 06459 0000000000
0146 3050N 08827W 06095 0366 172 029 085 149 030 06459 0000000000
0146. 3048N 08828W 06097 0364 176 031 081 203 031 06460 0000000000
0147 3046N 08830W 06096 0363 175 030 085 213 030 06457 0000000000
0147. 3045N 08832W 06093 0362 175 031 085 193 032 06453 0000000000
0148 3043N 08833W 06099 0359 172 031 087 155 032 06456 0000000000
0148. 3041N 08835W 06095 0360 174 032 087 161 032 06454 0000000000
0149 3040N 08837W 06096 0359 173 033 087 187 034 06454 0000000000
0149. 3038N 08839W 06097 0358 172 033 085 193 034 06454 0000000000
0150 3036N 08840W 06095 0358 172 032 079 153 032 06451 0000000000
0150. 3035N 08842W 06096 0357 172 033 081 157 034 06452 0000000000
0151 3033N 08844W 06094 0357 172 035 085 125 036 06450 0000000000
0151. 3031N 08845W 06098 0356 172 034 087 123 035 06452 0000000000
0152 3030N 08847W 06098 0357 171 033 087 123 034 06453 0000000000

[djtil]

...

[djtil]

It's a stretch to call it a Cat 3 with that low of a pressure...

except that categories arent based on pressure...seems to be a tough point to get i guess.

not only is it not a cat 4, its not even really a "strong cat3"...

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 240204
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 09 KNHC
0152. 3028N 08849W 06094 0355 171 033 087 121 033 06447 0000000000
0153 3027N 08850W 06097 0353 170 034 089 119 034 06449 0000000000
0153. 3025N 08852W 06098 0351 173 032 089 123 033 06448 0000000000
0154 3023N 08854W 06095 0350 170 033 093 113 035 06444 0000000000
0154. 3022N 08855W 06097 0351 169 033 085 157 033 06447 0000000000
0155 3020N 08857W 06096 0350 169 032 081 179 034 06444 0000000000
0155. 3018N 08859W 06095 0350 168 034 081 185 035 06444 0000000000
0156 3017N 08900W 06095 0348 169 036 083 167 036 06442 0000000000
0156. 3015N 08902W 06098 0349 168 034 085 175 035 06446 0000000000
0157 3013N 08904W 06096 0349 168 036 085 139 038 06444 0000000000
0157. 3012N 08905W 06094 0347 171 040 085 145 040 06440 0000000000
0158 3010N 08907W 06095 0346 172 042 085 157 043 06440 0000000000
0158. 3008N 08909W 06098 0345 169 042 085 171 043 06442 0000000000
0159 3007N 08910W 06096 0345 169 042 085 155 043 06440 0000000000
0159. 3005N 08912W 06095 0345 168 043 085 141 043 06438 0000000000
0200 3004N 08914W 06096 0344 167 043 077 167 043 06439 0000000000
0200. 3002N 08915W 06095 0345 166 043 075 201 043 06439 0000000000
0201 3000N 08917W 06095 0343 167 043 071 211 043 06437 0000000000
0201. 2959N 08919W 06097 0342 166 043 075 167 043 06438 0000000000
0202 2957N 08920W 06097 0341 165 043 075 157 044 06436 0000000000

[recmod]

Derek Ortt wrote:
have you not noticed that the surface winds are of category 2 intensity?

Derek Ortt wrote:
the SFMR was recalibrated just befor eyesterdays flight, and it was tested and yielded accurate results

this is not a 110KT hurricane

Derek Ortt wrote:
to be honest, I have no idea what NHC has been doing with the wind speeds since yesterday. They have consistently been overstating the winds. Yesterday, they were 30KT too high at times

Derek,

It is continued remarks like this that damage your credibility as a meteorologist. I guess you are saying that you are more "in the know" than the National Hurricane Center. Your comments almost accuse the Hurricane Center of having a sensationalist mentality with an agenda of using scare-tactics by creating statements of overblown intensity. Come on....are we really to accept this??? This central pressure of 931mb is CERTAINLY no 100mph hurricane. The fact that Lake Charles, an inland city, is currently recording sustained winds of 50mph, with gusts over 70mph while the center of Rita is over 100 miles away certainly means that those ground-level winds at the hurricane's core are MUCH higher than 100mph.

Just my opinion...I am not trying to bash...I just think we should not totally discredit the folks at the NHC as you continue to do

--Lou

[recmod]

not only is it not a cat 4, its not even really a "strong cat3"...

Well, the last advisory puts the winds at 120mph...which is only 6 miles above a Cat 2 storm...so no one is claiming Rita to be a "strong" Cat 3 any longer...

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 240214
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 10 KNHC
0202. 2955N 08922W 06097 0339 164 043 075 145 044 06435 0000000000
0203 2954N 08923W 06093 0338 163 044 081 131 044 06430 0000000000
0203. 2952N 08925W 06096 0339 167 042 089 123 043 06434 0000000000
0204 2950N 08927W 06098 0340 166 043 087 121 044 06436 0000000000
0204. 2949N 08928W 06096 0339 164 046 079 131 047 06433 0000000000
0205 2947N 08930W 06094 0338 163 044 077 133 045 06431 0000000000
0205. 2946N 08932W 06096 0338 168 046 081 139 047 06434 0000000000
0206 2944N 08933W 06096 0337 171 045 079 247 046 06433 0000000000
0206. 2942N 08935W 06098 0336 174 046 081 319 046 06433 0000000000
0207 2941N 08936W 06093 0334 172 047 075 321 048 06426 0000000000
0207. 2939N 08938W 06099 0334 170 046 081 289 047 06432 0000000000
0208 2938N 08940W 06094 0334 169 045 079 263 046 06427 0000000000
0208. 2936N 08941W 06097 0333 170 045 077 263 047 06429 0000000000
0209 2934N 08943W 06095 0332 171 049 075 217 049 06427 0000000000
0209. 2933N 08944W 06095 0330 171 050 079 183 051 06425 0000000000
0210 2931N 08946W 06103 0330 171 050 075 167 051 06432 0000000000
0210. 2930N 08948W 06095 0331 170 049 077 241 049 06425 0000000000
0211 2928N 08949W 06095 0330 171 049 085 129 049 06423 0000000000
0211. 2926N 08951W 06098 0328 175 050 085 101 050 06426 0000000000
0212 2925N 08952W 06097 0327 177 048 085 101 049 06423 0000000000

[djtil]

for the cat 4 crowd.....has there ever been a cat 4 with no eyewall to speak of? rita entire eyewall is nearly gone, and hasnt been over 50-60% complete for some time now.

i know a cat 4 is exciting and all....but running kicking and screaming from all evidence of a significantly weakened storm right now isnt going to make it any stronger.

.....as for "noone calling this a strong cat 3 any more.....

"It's a stretch to call it a Cat 3 with that low of a pressure..."

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 240224
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 11 KNHC
0212. 2923N 08954W 06093 0326 173 047 081 099 050 06418 0000000000
0213 2921N 08956W 06098 0326 176 047 079 101 048 06423 0000000000
0213. 2920N 08957W 06095 0326 176 047 081 097 048 06420 0000000000
0214 2918N 08959W 06095 0324 175 050 083 121 051 06418 0000000000
0214. 2916N 09001W 06099 0323 174 049 077 119 050 06422 0000000000
0215 2915N 09002W 06094 0322 174 048 077 113 048 06415 0000000000
0215. 2913N 09004W 06096 0322 174 048 073 113 048 06417 0000000000
0216 2912N 09005W 06101 0321 175 049 073 127 050 06421 0000000000
0216. 2911N 09008W 06095 0318 173 051 073 117 052 06412 0000000000
0217 2911N 09010W 06098 0317 174 052 075 109 054 06414 0000000000
0217. 2912N 09013W 06092 0314 174 054 071 127 056 06406 0000000000
0218 2912N 09016W 06097 0313 176 057 077 127 058 06409 0000000000
0218. 2912N 09019W 06097 0313 178 058 079 159 059 06409 0000000000
0219 2913N 09022W 06097 0311 173 057 079 151 057 06407 0000000000
0219. 2913N 09025W 06095 0310 174 056 077 077 056 06404 0000000000
0220 2914N 09028W 06093 0307 173 057 075 077 057 06399 0000000000
0220. 2914N 09030W 06096 0305 173 058 075 075 059 06399 0000000000
0221 2914N 09033W 06094 0302 173 058 073 083 059 06395 0000000000
0221. 2915N 09036W 06095 0301 175 058 071 097 058 06395 0000000000
0222 2915N 09039W 06096 0298 174 058 075 083 059 06393 0000000000

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 240234
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 12 KNHC
0222. 2916N 09041W 06096 0297 175 060 073 073 060 06392 0000000000
0223 2916N 09044W 06097 0295 176 061 069 073 062 06391 0000000000
0223. 2916N 09047W 06095 0293 176 062 067 079 063 06388 0000000000
0224 2917N 09049W 06095 0291 172 064 065 079 066 06385 0000000000
0224. 2917N 09052W 06098 0289 179 068 069 075 071 06386 0000000000
0225 2917N 09055W 06096 0285 187 070 073 085 071 06380 0000000000
0225. 2918N 09057W 06096 0280 187 069 071 085 071 06376 0000000000
0226 2918N 09100W 06094 0278 185 070 069 087 071 06372 0000000000
0226. 2918N 09102W 06093 0276 181 068 065 095 069 06368 0000000000
0227 2919N 09105W 06097 0274 173 067 063 091 068 06369 0000000000
0227. 2919N 09107W 06097 0272 170 067 063 089 067 06368 0000000000
0228 2919N 09110W 06097 0268 170 068 061 089 068 06364 0000000000
0228. 2920N 09113W 06095 0265 168 068 061 089 068 06360 0000000000
0229 2920N 09115W 06096 0263 166 069 059 087 069 06359 0000000000
0229. 2921N 09118W 06096 0262 163 070 057 089 072 06357 0000000000
0230 2921N 09121W 06098 0259 167 074 063 079 074 06355 0000000000
0230. 2921N 09123W 06097 0254 166 073 061 069 074 06350 0000000000
0231 2922N 09126W 06097 0251 169 073 059 061 074 06347 0000000000
0231. 2922N 09129W 06096 0248 172 073 055 055 074 06343 0000000000
0232 2922N 09132W 06099 0243 170 072 055 059 074 06341 0000000000

[soonertwister]

for the cat 4 crowd.....has there ever been a cat 4 with no eyewall to speak of? rita entire eyewall is nearly gone, and hasnt been over 50-60% complete for some time now.

i know a cat 4 is exciting and all....but running kicking and screaming from all evidence of a significantly weakened storm right now isnt going to make it any stronger.

.....as for "noone calling this a strong cat 3 any more.....

"It's a stretch to call it a Cat 3 with that low of a pressure..."

Maybe you can explain why Beaumont is getting frequent hurricane force winds hours north of the eyewall? Drop the haughty tone, you'll look less foolish when you are (and if you are) wrong.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 240242
AF306 WX18A RITA02 HDOB 01 KNHC
0230. 3355N 08431W 00260 5271 360 000 246 180 000 00000 0000000000
0231 3355N 08431W 00260 5271 360 000 246 178 000 00000 0000000000
0231. 3355N 08431W 00260 5271 360 000 246 178 000 00000 0000000000
0232 3355N 08431W 00259 5270 360 000 246 178 000 00000 0000000000
0232. 3355N 08431W 00259 5270 360 000 246 178 000 00000 0000000000
0233 3355N 08431W 00259 0031 360 000 246 176 000 00317 0000000000
0233. 3355N 08431W 00259 0053 360 000 246 176 000 00317 0000000000
0234 3355N 08431W 00260 0051 360 000 246 180 000 00316 0000000000
0234. 3355N 08431W 00259 0052 360 000 246 178 000 00316 0000000000
0235 3355N 08431W 00259 0052 360 000 246 174 000 00316 0000000000
0235. 3355N 08431W 00259 0050 360 000 246 178 000 00315 0000000000
0236 3355N 08431W 00259 0049 360 000 244 186 000 00314 0000000000
0236. 3355N 08431W 00263 0049 017 001 238 192 003 00317 0000000000
0237 3355N 08432W 00319 0047 093 004 242 188 008 00370 0000000000
0237. 3355N 08433W 00497 0064 124 014 250 166 015 00561 0000000000
0238 3356N 08435W 00717 0075 119 015 230 166 016 00792 0000000000
0238. 3356N 08437W 00969 0090 111 016 208 162 017 01059 0000000000
0239 3357N 08439W 01265 0103 101 018 182 148 019 01369 0000000000
0239. 3357N 08441W 01526 0118 106 022 170 096 022 01645 0000000000
0240 3358N 08443W 01810 0130 113 020 152 080 021 01942 0000000000



Ding-Dong-Ding-Dong Vortex comming.

[feederband]

cough it up man