2015 Global model runs discussion

[Weatherwatcher98]

? Do you also think chances are near zero for the GOM?

I would say very unlikely for GoM (BoC specifically) given the poor model performance but not zero in that area, more like 20% range. I still don't see anything being particularly likely. Westward trends of the models however tell me there's no chance of development in the Caribbean or eastern Gulf.

Then the season is probably over, because Those are the Areas to watch in October.

[stormlover2013]

Season isn't over just yet but getting there... if anything could be a hybrid system with cold front... but ignore the CMC, Navy, they are horrendous they will show a hurricane in January lol

[Weatherwatcher98]

Realistic chances of anything developing on the Atlantic side of Central America are basically zero. Interesting though that the Euro has been developing a low (subtropical possibly?) in the central Atlantic in about a week, the GFS is now picking up on it as well.

With the Fronts coming east, Besides, maybe Bermuda, Most likely would not have any impact on anyone.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Season isn't over just yet but getting there... if anything could be a hybrid system with cold front... but ignore the CMC, Navy, they are horrendous they will show a hurricane in January lol

I know. We ALL Know that.

[Hammy]

Season isn't over just yet but getting there... if anything could be a hybrid system with cold front... but ignore the CMC, Navy, they are horrendous they will show a hurricane in January lol

I know. We ALL Know that.

On that note I believe the CMC showed a hurricane threatening Miami around Christmas 240 hours out in 2013.

[stormlover2013]

lol funny stuff lol

[Weatherwatcher98]

[blp]

Looking at the GFS over past few days I must say that Ridge is quite strong for October and is locked in over the SE U.S. for over 10 days acting as a nice deflector sheild. How lucky has the U.S. been. If not conditions would have allowed a good sized system to develop in WC IMO. I wonder when our luck will run out though.

[LarryWx]

I know this will come as a shocker. The 18Z NAVGEM has no WC genesis whatsoever after having one on every single run since the weekend! Kudos to Gator and, well, just about every poster here for predicting this.

I have a feeling that there won't be too many people staying up for tonight's Euro.

[Dean4Storms]

Time is ticking on the Atlantic Hurricane season and the way things are looking it doesn't look like much in the way of favorable conditions exist. At least we got one big Major out of this year.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the GFS over past few days I must say that Ridge is quite strong for October and is locked in over the SE U.S. for over 10 days acting as a nice deflector sheild. How lucky has the U.S. been. If not conditions would have allowed a good sized system to develop in WC IMO. I wonder when our luck will run out though.

Yes it is some high, I don't recall seeing red isobar lines on the instant weather maps image in a while, a sign that fall is here with Big Highs building in over North America.

[northjaxpro]

Time is ticking on the Atlantic Hurricane season and the way things are looking it doesn't look like much in the way of favorable conditions exist. At least we got one big Major out of this year.

2 Majors

1 big major, and a tiny major with Danny.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the GFS over past few days I must say that Ridge is quite strong for October and is locked in over the SE U.S. for over 10 days acting as a nice deflector sheild. How lucky has the U.S. been. If not conditions would have allowed a good sized system to develop in WC IMO. I wonder when our luck will run out though.

Yes it is some high, I don't recall seeing red isobar lines on the instant weather maps image in a while, a sign that fall is here with Big Highs building in over North America.

This is why early yesterday I posted on here that anything that tries to form down in the Western Caribbean would stay pinned down and get shoved west over either Central America, BOC or possibly into the Eastern Pacific. This is a very strong polar High (1034 mb) shown building down across the Eastern CONUS should it come to fruition, with the center of the axis across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic within the next week. I can't see any movement poleward from any Low Pressure down into the Caribbean. Also, the first significant cold spell looks to be in store for much of the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast U.S. and portions of the Mid Atlantic within the next week.

[floridasun78]

i see storm are increased in nw Caribbean here loop you can see spin in that areas too http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

[La Breeze]

i see storm are increased in nw Caribbean here loop you can see spin in that areas too http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

Local met mentioned this tonight and stated that by Wed/Thur of next week the tropical moisture of this would be affecting the Gulf Coast states from TX moving east. He mentioned that we could get a nice soaking out of this.

[Alyono]

the EC has a TS in the Gulf at day 9

[Hammy]

Euro jumping on GFS phantom storm bandwagon? Didn't this happen a few times in September too?

[Kingarabian]

Models keep pushing back development that I wouldn't be surprised that it's Nov 30th and they still have it in the long range.

[Alyono]

Euro jumping on GFS phantom storm bandwagon? Didn't this happen a few times in September too?

in this case, I expect a NONTROPICAL low to form in the Gulf

[Weatherwatcher98]

Possibly Sub Tropical