ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I thought I saw 1010 mb on the WPC surface analysis of the actual Low center earlier at around 20Z.

But, conditions here at my locale have been deteriorating all afternoon now into this evening with strong northeast to north winds currently and now rain bands coming in from off the Atlantic from the nearby 10L.
.

[LarryWx]

I thought I saw 1010 mb on the WPC surface analysis of the actual Low center earlier at around 20Z.

But, conditions here at my locale have been deteriorating all afternoon now into this eveningwith strong northeast to north winds currently and now rain bands coming in from off the Atlantic from the nearby 10L.
.

Batten down the hatches, Jax! The 1.3 mb drop last hour at Mayport sure does suggest it is coming in your direction and/or strengthening nearby.

This is where I saw the 1007 mb as of 5 PM EDT: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al ... .001.shtml?

[northjaxpro]

Barometric pressure now at 1009.3 mb. That is a slight drop of.3 mb at my home in just the past hour. So. apparently the Low Pressure area is literally just off the coast of Mayport and Jax Beach currently.. It also may be slowly intensifying as well.

[jdjaguar]

Conditions deteriorating
No doubt

[JaxGator]

10L is bringing rainbands of tropical downpours to light rain since late afternoon. The pressure also feels lower than it usually does as said by the pressure readings at Mayport, Ferndenia Beach and St. Augustine.

[northjaxpro]

Thank goodness for Harvey providing the shear from his outflow over 10L because had not been for that, we would be looking at at a rapidly developing storm. This still is going to be a decent storm when all is said and done. It is affecting my region right now.

That is the only glimmer of hopeful news I can say about Harvey if you want to even call it that way.

[northjaxpro]

10L is bringing rainbands of tropical downpours to light rain since late afternoon. The pressure also feels lower than it usually does as said by the pressure readings at Mayport, Ferndenia Beach and St. Augustine.

Yes, 10L has been a surprise for me in that I was not anticipating the Low center to be as close to Jax as it is
currently. Also, the system had had a drift south of west for the past few hours. 10L is in an area of weak steering, hopefully just temporary. The trough is supposed to pick up 10L. I am curious when the northeast movement will finally commence.

[JaxGator]

10L is bringing rainbands of tropical downpours to light rain since late afternoon. The pressure also feels lower than it usually does as said by the pressure readings at Mayport, Ferndenia Beach and St. Augustine.

Yes, 10L has been a surprise for me in that I was not anticipating the Low center to be as close to Jax as it is
currently. Also, the system had had a drift south of west for the past few hours. 10L is in an area of weak steering, hopefully just temporary. The trough is supposed to pick up 10L. I am curious when the northeast movement will finally commence.

Yeah that surprised me too, I thought it'll would have been further offshore, and not drift toward us. I would hope that NW movement will start soon though. The ironic saving grace in preventing 10L from taking off faster than it is now is....Harvey as you mentioned earlier. Its amazing how far his outflow stretches.

[birddogsc]

Looking at the Jax radar... is the low rather elongated?

[crimi481]

Looks like energy relay transfer event. #10 - to old 92l - to Harvey.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/bd-l.jpg

Not a pro

[artist]

Looking at the Jax radar... is the low rather elongated?

Take a look at long range Tampa and you may get more confused, but I think earlier they were saying it is somewhat elongated.

[crimi481]

Steady rain again tonight in SW Florida (Englewood) Watching the rotation
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

Not a pro

[joey]

Steady rain again tonight in SW Florida (Englewood) Watching the rotation
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

Not a pro

could this become a seperate system soon

[artist]

Steady rain again tonight in SW Florida (Englewood) Watching the rotation
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

Not a pro

could this become a seperate system soon

That keeps on going through my mind here over in Palm Beach county. Been watching it for days.

[LarryWx]

It appears based on the last couple of hours that there may be a bit of a low center forming near St Augustine, where winds are quite light and SLP lowest. (I'm treating The Villages lower pressure as bogus.)

Now that we've reached the time of a climo diurnal max, we may see hourly SLPs start to fall again.

[northjaxpro]

.
This is the latest surface WPC/NHC surface analysis. They have 10L estimated to be about 50to 60 miles due east of the FL/GA border at 1006 mb.

Based on surface observations and pressure readings in the region, including here, I think that center is much closer to the coast than that surface analysis is showing.

[weathaguyry]

[img]http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/svc/names.fcwbg.gif/img]

.
This is the latest surface WPC/NHC surface analysis. They have 10L estimated to be about 50to 60 miles due east of the FL/GA border at 1006 mb.

Based on surface observations and pressure readings in the region, including here, I think that center is much closer to the coast than that surface analysis is showing.

Could that have any affect on the track of 10L?

[JaxGator]

Here's the latest briefing on 10L from NWS Jax.

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A% ... 7JfdiiwfYg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 80.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
---------------------------------------------------------------


Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017

Deep convection has been increasing in both intensity and coverage
during the past several hours in association with Potential
Tropical Cyclone Ten. However, satellite and radar data indicate
that the circulation remains poorly defined, therefore, the
system is not yet a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is
held at 30 kt based on the surrounding surface observations and the
earlier ASCAT data.

The disturbance is located in weak steering currents, and has been
meandering during the last several hours. A continued slow and
erratic motion is likely to continue overnight and early Monday. A
mid- to upper-level trough currently over the central U.S. is
expected to approach the system, and should cause the disturbance
to begin moving northeastward by late Monday. A faster east-
northeastward to northeastward motion is forecast thereafter when
the system becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The
models are in fair agreement, and only small changes were made to
the previous NHC track forecast. This forecast takes the center of
the disturbance near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight
and Monday and along the North Carolina coastline Monday night and
Tuesday.

The elongated center of the disturbance is located to the west of
the main area of deep convection due to strong westerly vertical
wind shear. The shear is only expected to lessen a little during
the next 12 to 24 hours, but it will likely weaken enough to allow
the system to become a tropical cyclone. After that time,
increasing shear and interaction with the aforementioned trough
should cause the disturbance to lose its tropical characteristics in
about 48 hours. Strengthening is likely for a couple of days while
the system is post-tropical due to baroclinic effects.

Although the potential for tropical storm winds are within the
warning time period (36 hours), given the uncertainty in whether
these winds will occur on land in northeastern South Carolina and
southeastern North Carolina, a tropical storm watch remains in
effect for those areas. Note that north of Duck, North Carolina,
hazards from this system will be handled with non-tropical products
issued by local National Weather Service offices.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 30.5N 80.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 28/1200Z 30.9N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 29/0000Z 32.3N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 34.4N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 30/0000Z 36.5N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 31/0000Z 39.9N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0000Z 43.2N 53.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0000Z 47.2N 41.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[ForeverFlorida90s]

Steady rain again tonight in SW Florida (Englewood) Watching the rotation
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

Not a pro

could this become a seperate system soon

That keeps on going through my mind here over in Palm Beach county. Been watching it for days.

Lol I've been watching it forever too checking in from North Palm Beach