ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/archerOnline/cyclones/2023_10L/web/track.png


3 days of just hanging around. I wonder how bad the weather has been for people living in Cuba and Mexico

My friend in Cancun has said that the weather has been really stuffy for the last few days. Loads of rain and frequent bands coming through at all times vs. their typical summer pattern. He's over it.

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[bjackrian]

I'm curious what people make of the second blob of convection at about 19.5N/85W. Is that "stealing" energy from the CDO or is it unrelated?

[Teban54]

Are the pink pixels on IR showing the developing eyewall?

[Bocadude85]

Sure seems to be a East of North movement on the Cuban radar, not sure if my eyes are playing tricks on me or what but I’ve been watching that radar for awhile.

Ok so my eyes were not playing tricks on me, she has been moving east of north. Confirmed by the NHC.

[tropicwatch]

Are the pink pixels on IR showing the developing eyewall?
https://i.postimg.cc/QCR2N1v9/goes16-ir-10-L-202308290127.gif

Looks like the center is getting close to where the HH flew north of its center. So maybe they can make a pass through before they head to the barn.

[tropicwatch]

Nevermind they are ascending and looks like they are headed towards Puerto Rico.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like track shifted slightly back to the east at 11pm

[Poonwalker]

This is one of those storms where they fly back with sub hurricane wind data and by the time they land the thing blows up with an eye on IR.

[Jr0d]

Sure seems to be a East of North movement on the Cuban radar, not sure if my eyes are playing tricks on me or what but I’ve been watching that radar for awhile.

Ok so my eyes were not playing tricks on me, she has been moving east of north. Confirmed by the NHC.

Tough to tell from Cuba's radar, not enough frames.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

It does seem like land interaction with Cuba could cause an eastern wobble from land interaction and friction pulls the storm right. Doubtful if this is supported by actual meteorological science, however storm centers have done wierd stuff near landmasses

[eastcoastFL]

It’s sure become a lot more symmetrical throughout the day and ya it’s also back to the east of 85W

[tropicwatch]

This is one of those storms where they fly back with sub hurricane wind data and by the time they land the thing blows up with an eye on IR.

The next scheduled AF flight is scheduled to take off around 4:30am CDT.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1696359376280486398

[Bocadude85]

Sure seems to be a East of North movement on the Cuban radar, not sure if my eyes are playing tricks on me or what but I’ve been watching that radar for awhile.

Ok so my eyes were not playing tricks on me, she has been moving east of north. Confirmed by the NHC.

Tough to tell from Cuba's radar, not enough frames.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

It does seem like land interaction with Cuba could cause an eastern wobble from land interaction and friction pulls the storm right. Doubtful if this is supported by actual meteorological science, however storm centers have done wierd stuff near landmasses

NHC confirmed the east of north movement in the latest discussion.

WTNT45 KNHC 290258
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

The system has moved a bit slower than earlier today with an initial motion estimate of just slightly east of due north at around 7 kt. Idalia should be steered northward along the western side of a mid-level ridge and then turn north-northeastward due to a trough to its northwest. This track will take the center across the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday morning, and over northern Florida and southeastern Georgia thereafter. In 2 to 3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the eastern U.S. coast will likely cause the tropical cyclone to turn northeastward to eastward off the coast of the Carolinas. The official track forecast for this advisory is essentially the same as the previous one. This is near the middle of the track guidance, which are fairly tightly clustered, with the GFS on the left side and the ECMWF on the right side.

[FLpanhandle91]

Robust northern eyewall has formed and is visible from IR and radar. This has now moved off the northern coast of Cuba.



AF recon looks to be making a pass since the center is offshore.

[tropicwatch]

Robust northern eyewall has formed and is visible from IR and radar. This has now moved off the northern coast of Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/XLmc22R.jpg

AF recon looks to be making a pass since the center is offshore.

Surprised they turned around.

[chaser1]

Are the pink pixels on IR showing the developing eyewall?
https://i.postimg.cc/QCR2N1v9/goes16-ir-10-L-202308290127.gif

I had mistakenly thought the same thing. At least with this particular storm, it appears that these uber-cold cloud tops merely represent the highest/coldest tops essentially being exhausted out to the southeast in part due to the westerly shear hampering the storm. Whats interesting to me is, while this itself does not necessarily represent true forward motion of the storm, it does perhaps point to the location of the mid to upper level tilted well to the right of the LLC. Whats interesting to me is that I would perceive that greater northeast tilt to at least induce the LLC to pull itself under and it is that function that may be responsible for the slighr east of north motion we have been noticing. Honestly if I were folks in Tampa, i'd probably be rooting for this storm to get its act together as quick as possible. I can only see any ongoing misalignment as a result of (upper OR undercutting) shear as a potential cause for Idalia's track to "lean" more to the right. The last thing that the broad Tampa Bay region want to see is any track that might bring a major hurricane wind and storm surge threat closer to their coastline.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

How long do we have to wait for the model runs that will include all of the synoptic flight samplings that they were getting earlier tonight? Really interested in seeing those, along with a proper initialization!

[PavelGaborik10]

Core is coming together nicely these last couple of hours, convective burst also sticking around, outflow improving.

Shear is beginning to lessen.

[IcyTundra]

How long do we have to wait for the model runs that will include all of the synoptic flight samplings that they were getting earlier tonight? Really interested in seeing those, along with a proper initialization!

06Z runs should have the latest recon data from the plane currently in the storm right now.

[Hugo1989]

Special advisory in the next hour or so? What you’ll think?