ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

Does anyone have the current graphic of the ridge placement versus where it's supposed to set up? Trying to visualize how it sits on top of Tennessee for several days.

[Pipelines182]

Mexico Beach as you see it today is not the same as it was. FEMA gave only so much and without flood insurance, the houses that got wrecked by surge did not get nearly enough to rebuild. There are still damaged houses unoccupied there. What is being built makes my construction lawyer eyeballs twitch and it's mainly being bought by people as second homes. Wood frame, not concrete, and not nearly enough strapping in my opinion in a VE zone on the water is not going to make it. Cape San Blas has houses basically in the water that will not survive. Charming little places like Carabelle will be at risk of demolition if half of what appears to be coming comes to fruition. Our house in St Joe Beach will come out of this OK I think on this storm, but if we get another Michael down the road, we won't rebuild another time. There is a great book called the Geography of Risk that talks about the flood insurance angle of your question. And now, back to lurking.

none of those older homes anywhere on the gulf will survive a direct hit from a 4/5, eventually they'll all be gone.

What makes you think the new homes have insufficient strapping?

[Sciencerocks]

[MississippiWx]

Helene finally has the structure to help it intensify rapidly. The dry air has mixed out quickly and a core seems to be developing. It's about to be off to the races.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1839013924341166433

[ScottNAtlanta]

Well, my power is out due to storms in the area until 5p per GA Power. I wonder what on earth is going to happen when the REAL storm hits

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1839017675428696265

[Pipelines182]

Helene finally has the structure to help it intensify rapidly. The dry air has mixed out quickly and a core seems to be developing. It's about to be off to the races.

I'm not placing my bets until that core is successfully wrapped, seen too many storms struggle getting a solid eyewall together for a very long time once dry air gets entrained. We'll see!

[Beef Stew]

Helene finally has the structure to help it intensify rapidly. The dry air has mixed out quickly and a core seems to be developing. It's about to be off to the races.

I'm thinking it's still going to be a bit of time, but that Helene is really going to bomb-out overnight. I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of those storms that almost "skips" category 3- we may fall asleep with a 100 mph category 2 and wake up to a 140-150 mph category 4. Something akin to Ian and Ida comes to mind.

[Travorum]

SAR got a good acquisition this morning:

Platform: RCM-3
Acquisition Date: 2024-09-25 11:43:17 UTC
Storm Name: AL092024 / HELENE
Storm ID: AL09
Storm Center Longitude: -86.164
Storm Center Latitude: 21.043
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 33.603
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 54.58
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 73.16
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 79.15
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 59.44
RMax (nmi): 19.00 - 45.00

[chaser1]

They just issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Metro Atlanta. Don't see that very often

Okay, THAT is pretty wild LOL! Obviously your "Watch" implies only a potential risk but isn't it nuts that a city such as Atlanta be issued any kind of "tropical" Watch or Warning given how far from the coast you are ?
I'd be gobsmacked if it later gets upgraded to a Warning. I think all Severe Weather Warnings have become overly liberal in terms of the extent or range which they get issued for. I get that the need IS critical to safeguard those in harm's way. For the many people that do not experience the scope of conditions expected from such Warnings though, many become less inclined to expect those conditions when future severe weather events occur. At least here in Florida, that seems to create an unintended form of conditioning or "cry wolf syndrome".

Unless a hurricane takes an unexpected turn to the east and then the cry is exactly the opposite, why didn't you warn us!

I think that's a good point but in this new cell phone and computer information age, news and information is both instant and constant. Life was way different 20 + years ago but there's no shortage of messaging now LOL. Nonetheless, I do agree that Warnings need to extend as far as that likelihood of conditions may realistically be expected, but not beyond that. Tampa will be close enough to reasonable expect Tropical Storm force winds and significant chance of hurricane force gusts including storm surge conditions. A small eastward deviation would mean way worse. On the other hand, I live in Seminole County (Orlando area). While not under a Hurricane Watch or Warning, we are under an inland Tropical Storm Warning. Under your scenario, "if" Helene were to unexpectedly strike Tampa I definitely would experience TS conditions. Given it's present track though I have not seen any forecast tool or local NWS product that suggests that we should expect sustained Tropical Storm force 39mph or greater winds, simply "Tropical Storm conditions expected". The NWS Local Hurricane statement simply mentions a "limited" risk of gusts to 60mph but with no actual wind forecast. The NWS local forecast has no explicit winds or wind gust forecast either (only the min/max temperatures LOL).
I suppose my point is that:
1) there are other types of Advisories which could express a potential expanded risk but not necessarily directly imply "you WILL experience tropical storm conditions".
2) We all love to jump on the media for being sensationalistic for the sake of ratings. Well, let's leave the worst-case scenario for them to constantly remind us.
3) When NHC forecast confidence is strong, they're pretty solid out to 72 hr.'s. When less confident they are pretty direct where an expanded risk could impact others in the case of a small track deviation.
4) I did not experience the wind impact as advertised during the majority of events where Warnings were issued for my area for those T.S. or hurricanes which did threaten Florida over recent years (nor the many Severe Storm Warning & Tornado Warnings issued for my particular area). Coworkers, family and friends have all expressed that same sentiment.

[eastcoastFL]

All of those big storms to the north of Helene are staying off shore for now.

[eastcoastFL]

Schools here in pasco closed on friday also, so absurd. The trajectory was moved west, while the landfall still remained the same at 11am. School being out tomorrow was a 50/50 in my mindset, the mindset that it's been over 100 years since we actually had a storm that shelters would be needed for in the county area i live in and i think back then, we the tech we have now, they would have known. It all works out for me, my son is home sick today and the days he would have missed are off anyway, sucks for him though, he can't go outside and play like all the other kids tomorrow and Friday.,

Theyre not just closed for shelters. I'm much further away from landfall and our schools are closed because it's not safe to operate School busses full of children in tropical storm conditions. Nor is it safe for children to walk or ride their bikes home from school during these types of conditions. I doubt many kids will be outside playing tomorrow.

[toad strangler]

Schools here in pasco closed on friday also, so absurd. The trajectory was moved west, while the landfall still remained the same at 11am. School being out tomorrow was a 50/50 in my mindset, the mindset that it's been over 100 years since we actually had a storm that shelters would be needed for in the county area i live in and i think back then, we the tech we have now, they would have known. It all works out for me, my son is home sick today and the days he would have missed are off anyway, sucks for him though, he can't go outside and play like all the other kids tomorrow and Friday.,

Theyre not just closed for shelters. I'm much further away from landfall and our schools are closed because it's not safe to operate School busses full of children in tropical storm conditions. Nor is it safe for children to walk or ride their bikes home from school during these types of conditions. I doubt many kids will be outside playing tomorrow.

BINGO!

And you are in Martin County correct? I work in Stuart and have been seeing these far flung outer showers move through ... a decent cell just went through Port St. Lucie

[Steve]

Does anyone have the current graphic of the ridge placement versus where it's supposed to set up? Trying to visualize how it sits on top of Tennessee for several days.

I don't have links to the upper charts but I'm assuming they'd be easy enough to find. Otherwise run water vapor. Trough is almost all the way through Texas and up through NW LA. Embedded cut off is in extreme SE MO.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

Here's the wider view:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[HurricaneBelle]

The NWS local forecast has no explicit winds or wind gust forecast either (only the min/max temperatures LOL).

Not true - I just looked up the NWS Melbourne forecast for Orlando and it says this

THURSDAY
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SHOWERS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND TOWARDS SUNSET. VERY WINDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARDS SUNSET. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH INCREASING
TO 50 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARDS SUNSET. CHANCE OF
RAIN 90 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX READINGS UP TO 101.
THURSDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING, THEN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY WINDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
70S. SOUTH WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH DECREASING
TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT.

Very explicit with wind and gust forecasts!

I suppose my point is that:
1) there are other types of Advisories which could express a potential expanded risk but not necessarily directly imply "you WILL experience tropical storm conditions".
2) We all love to jump on the media for being sensationalistic for the sake of ratings. Well, let's leave the worst-case scenario for them to constantly remind us.
3) When NHC forecast confidence is strong, they're pretty solid out to 72 hr.'s. When less confident they are pretty direct where an expanded risk could impact others in the case of a small track deviation.
4) I did not experience the wind impact as advertised during the majority of events where Warnings were issued for my area for those T.S. or hurricanes which did threaten Florida over recent years (nor the many Severe Storm Warning & Tornado Warnings issued for my particular area). Coworkers, family and friends have all expressed that same sentiment.

as for your points,

1) there are enough varieties of advisories out there to cover things and any more would confuse the public
2) where do you think the media gets their weather info from in the first place?
4) forecasts are for a county area in general, you're not going to get a specific forecast for your block

As the NHC pointed out in its discussion, this storm is going to be in the 90th percentile for size, and the stronger it gets the stronger the distant effects are going to be, which is why the entire state is under TS warnings.

[3090]

Helene finally has the structure to help it intensify rapidly. The dry air has mixed out quickly and a core seems to be developing. It's about to be off to the races.

You can see on visible the dry air entrainment is still present wrapping in/around from the SE side. Good structure for sure but still sucking some dry air in.

[ConvergenceZone]

I've got to say for someone like myself who's a software engineer and math major, there is still lots that I've yet to understand when it comes to hurricanes. Not sure what I would do without this forum. And hats off to the Mods here. You all do a great job. I can't imagine the work it takes with hundreds of posts every day.

[ConvergenceZone]

Helene finally has the structure to help it intensify rapidly. The dry air has mixed out quickly and a core seems to be developing. It's about to be off to the races.

You can see on visible the dry air entrainment is still present wrapping in/around from the SE side. Good structure for sure but still sucking some dry air in.

true, but you pretty much will see that with every strong system that's developing. If you go back and look at the various hurricane threads, usually you will see dry air mentioned a few times with every potentially strong hurricane. But they almost always end up mixing it out over time, unless of course dry air is extreme, which it isn't with Helene.

[IsabelaWeather]

Helene finally has the structure to help it intensify rapidly. The dry air has mixed out quickly and a core seems to be developing. It's about to be off to the races.

You can see on visible the dry air entrainment is still present wrapping in/around from the SE side. Good structure for sure but still sucking some dry air in.

true, but you pretty much will see that with every strong system that's developing. If you go back and look at the various hurricane threads, usually you will see dry air mentioned a few times with every potentially strong hurricane. But they almost always end up mixing it out over time, unless of course dry air is extreme, which it isn't with Helene.

You also see people saying a storm is weakening during the pulse down phase, every single time, even though its a sign of the storm to actually start to strengthen.