Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

Lol of course the GFS is gonna show that after we're cancelling winter haha

[wxman22]

LOL I was thinking the same thing.Fool me once...

[Ntxw]

The 12Z GFS looks interesting...

It has tried to do this a few times. Some EPAC cyclone/system throwing moisture up into the trough. Not sure I believe it but would be wild. This stuff happens in Atlantic Canada and Greenland late in hurricane season.

[Ntxw]

Typically you only see this from a true strong subtropical jet during El Nino, so maybe? Certainly modeling can struggle with moisture transport in these regions southwest of us.

[Cpv17]

I was getting into bed last night in IAH area. I heard some strong winds with the storms. We needed the rain.

Lucky you. I got hardly anything here. Severe drought continues.

[bubba hotep]

Typically you only see this from a true strong subtropical jet during El Nino, so maybe? Certainly modeling can struggle with moisture transport in these regions southwest of us.

https://i.imgur.com/eUagVOz.gif

Is there any precedent for this? A Pacific wintertime tropical low pumping that much moisture over cold air? Not a cutoff 500mb low, but a surface tropical low?

I guess that window is a "thread the neddle" situation, but surface temps look warm.

ETA: 12z CMC, ICON, and AIGFS are all dry, with temps in the 40s for that same timeframe. Never trust the GFS when it does something whacky and is the only model doing it lol

[Gotwood]

I’m not throwing in the towel Feb is always the best month for us. Probably be a year where we get another storm around V day.

[TomballEd]

The 12Z GFS looks interesting...

Again, what looks like a weak EPac TC feeding moisture over air cold enough for winter precip/ I hope it trends colder because that is a fairly narrow stripe of snow.

[Stratton23]

12z Euro is very interesting, hints like the GFS, surface temps are in the upper 30’s though lol , but still interesting that the euro at least shows their might be moisture to work with this shortwave, cold air looks marginal, but still not a bad run

[TomballEd]

12z Euro is very interesting, hints like the GFS, surface temps are in the upper 30’s though lol , but still interesting that the euro at least shows their might be moisture to work with this shortwave, cold air looks marginal, but still not a bad run

I want a sub-tropical system but we'll definitely need colder air than the GFS has if we're to get anything in SETX and more than a couple of inches of snow in a fairly narrow stripe. As a glass full optimist, I always hold out hope that a global model doesn't correctly resolve how cold the surface airmass is. Good news/bad news is this is a weekend system but I have that Monday off anyway for MLK Day.

[wxman22]

12z Euro is very interesting, hints like the GFS, surface temps are in the upper 30’s though lol , but still interesting that the euro at least shows their might be moisture to work with this shortwave, cold air looks marginal, but still not a bad run

It's been showing a light wintry mix as the trough moves in for a few runs now. It just took it away on the 0z run,but now its back.

[wxman22]

Believe the GFS at your own risk.I highly doubt the tropical system verifies.

[DukeMu]

I wouldn’t get your hopes up. The CMC is way too cold biased.

CMC was the only model to nail the Feb. 21 winter storm.

The CMC is always 5 to 10 degrees too cold.

Not when it was 5°F here in CLL. Our Labrador LOVED it, though. She dragged me outside early and often in 6 inches of snow and ice!

[DukeMu]

12z Euro is very interesting, hints like the GFS, surface temps are in the upper 30’s though lol , but still interesting that the euro at least shows their might be moisture to work with this shortwave, cold air looks marginal, but still not a bad run

It's been showing a light wintry mix as the trough moves in for a few runs now. It just took it away on the 0z run,but now its back.

Seasonable temps. Mostly sunny skies for the week ahead in the NW territories of HGX (CLL). No complaints.

Hints of that potential wintry mix-chief N of Hwy 1*5 next weekend on the 12z's: CMC, GFS. We'll see.

[Ntxw]

Typically you only see this from a true strong subtropical jet during El Nino, so maybe? Certainly modeling can struggle with moisture transport in these regions southwest of us.

https://i.imgur.com/eUagVOz.gif

Is there any precedent for this? A Pacific wintertime tropical low pumping that much moisture over cold air? Not a cutoff 500mb low, but a surface tropical low?

I guess that window is a "thread the neddle" situation, but surface temps look warm.

ETA: 12z CMC, ICON, and AIGFS are all dry, with temps in the 40s for that same timeframe. Never trust the GFS when it does something whacky and is the only model doing it lol

I think it's a reaction to WWB, which does tend to translate with EPAC moisture (STJ) streaming up. I don't buy it yet, but such things are difficult to model for anyway. It's just a really strong tropical connection we've rarely seen the past decade. Probably most consistently back in 09-10.

[txtwister78]

More importantly the GEFS and the EPS say this is much to do about nothing regarding what their operationals currently show especially the GFS.

Yes another brief shot of colder air relative to these long mild stretches but nothing to write home about and certainly not sustained before milder air rushes back in.

[Stratton23]

Todays Euro AIFS Ensembles, EPS/ GEFS look closer ( not perfect) like p7/ P8 for late January in terms of their 500 mb chart patterns, im pretty conflicted as the MJO rotation ahead would strongly argue against sustained warmth

[txtwister78]

GFS/ GEFS look more like p7/ P8 for late january, im pretty conflicted

I don't know if I would call it a trend just yet but that's the period I mentioned a few days ago I'd be watching (last wk of Jan into early February) if we're ever going to see a flip. That might be our window for it.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 probably, its honestly just a head scratcher trying to figure out what comes next, i wish winters weren’t this difficult to forecast, unfortunately thats the price for living down here, we dont get easy winters to forecast lol

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 probably, its honestly just a head scratcher trying to figure out what comes next, i wish winters weren’t this difficult to forecast, unfortunately thats the price for living down here, we dont get easy winters to forecast lol

Agreed but that also makes the chase even more fun/awesome when one of these comes together and hits.