Rita Recon Reports

[superfly]

SXXX50 KNHC 240242
AF306 WX18A RITA02 HDOB 01 KNHC
0230. 3355N 08431W 00260 5271 360 000 246 180 000 00000 0000000000
0231 3355N 08431W 00260 5271 360 000 246 178 000 00000 0000000000
0231. 3355N 08431W 00260 5271 360 000 246 178 000 00000 0000000000
0232 3355N 08431W 00259 5270 360 000 246 178 000 00000 0000000000
0232. 3355N 08431W 00259 5270 360 000 246 178 000 00000 0000000000
0233 3355N 08431W 00259 0031 360 000 246 176 000 00317 0000000000
0233. 3355N 08431W 00259 0053 360 000 246 176 000 00317 0000000000
0234 3355N 08431W 00260 0051 360 000 246 180 000 00316 0000000000
0234. 3355N 08431W 00259 0052 360 000 246 178 000 00316 0000000000
0235 3355N 08431W 00259 0052 360 000 246 174 000 00316 0000000000
0235. 3355N 08431W 00259 0050 360 000 246 178 000 00315 0000000000
0236 3355N 08431W 00259 0049 360 000 244 186 000 00314 0000000000
0236. 3355N 08431W 00263 0049 017 001 238 192 003 00317 0000000000
0237 3355N 08432W 00319 0047 093 004 242 188 008 00370 0000000000
0237. 3355N 08433W 00497 0064 124 014 250 166 015 00561 0000000000
0238 3356N 08435W 00717 0075 119 015 230 166 016 00792 0000000000
0238. 3356N 08437W 00969 0090 111 016 208 162 017 01059 0000000000
0239 3357N 08439W 01265 0103 101 018 182 148 019 01369 0000000000
0239. 3357N 08441W 01526 0118 106 022 170 096 022 01645 0000000000
0240 3358N 08443W 01810 0130 113 020 152 080 021 01942 0000000000



Ding-Dong-Ding-Dong Vortex comming.

Ummm that's the plane taking off.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 240244
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 13 KNHC
0232. 2923N 09135W 06092 0241 172 076 055 063 077 06332 0000000000
0233 2923N 09137W 06096 0236 172 078 053 059 079 06331 0000000000
0233. 2923N 09140W 06096 0232 173 078 053 061 079 06327 0000000000
0234 2924N 09143W 06098 0227 171 076 053 057 077 06324 0000000000
0234. 2924N 09146W 06099 0222 163 075 055 055 076 06320 0000000000
0235 2925N 09149W 06099 0221 162 082 063 063 084 06318 0000000000
0235. 2925N 09151W 06086 0221 164 080 055 055 082 06305 0000000000
0236 2925N 09154W 06080 0214 159 083 051 051 084 06294 0000000000
0236. 2926N 09157W 05864 0198 154 080 043 043 084 06060 0000000000
0237 2926N 09200W 05591 0173 151 084 029 029 086 05761 0000000000
0237. 2926N 09203W 05313 0152 151 085 019 019 086 05462 0000000000
0238 2927N 09205W 05036 0118 150 087 007 007 089 05224 0000000000
0238. 2927N 09208W 04755 0086 146 091 005 005 092 04912 0000000000
0239 2927N 09211W 04487 0045 145 096 006 006 097 04603 0000000000
0239. 2928N 09214W 04236 0021 144 097 026 026 097 04322 0000000000
0240 2928N 09217W 03983 0003 145 101 036 036 102 04042 0000000000
0240. 2929N 09219W 03739 5024 142 103 054 054 104 03769 0000000000
0241 2929N 09222W 03478 5053 141 105 068 068 106 03479 0000000000
0241. 2929N 09225W 03221 5080 139 106 078 078 107 03195 0000000000
0242 2930N 09228W 03064 5107 137 108 078 078 108 03010 0000000000

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 240242
AF306 WX18A RITA02 HDOB 01 KNHC
0230. 3355N 08431W 00260 5271 360 000 246 180 000 00000 0000000000
0231 3355N 08431W 00260 5271 360 000 246 178 000 00000 0000000000
0231. 3355N 08431W 00260 5271 360 000 246 178 000 00000 0000000000
0232 3355N 08431W 00259 5270 360 000 246 178 000 00000 0000000000
0232. 3355N 08431W 00259 5270 360 000 246 178 000 00000 0000000000
0233 3355N 08431W 00259 0031 360 000 246 176 000 00317 0000000000
0233. 3355N 08431W 00259 0053 360 000 246 176 000 00317 0000000000
0234 3355N 08431W 00260 0051 360 000 246 180 000 00316 0000000000
0234. 3355N 08431W 00259 0052 360 000 246 178 000 00316 0000000000
0235 3355N 08431W 00259 0052 360 000 246 174 000 00316 0000000000
0235. 3355N 08431W 00259 0050 360 000 246 178 000 00315 0000000000
0236 3355N 08431W 00259 0049 360 000 244 186 000 00314 0000000000
0236. 3355N 08431W 00263 0049 017 001 238 192 003 00317 0000000000
0237 3355N 08432W 00319 0047 093 004 242 188 008 00370 0000000000
0237. 3355N 08433W 00497 0064 124 014 250 166 015 00561 0000000000
0238 3356N 08435W 00717 0075 119 015 230 166 016 00792 0000000000
0238. 3356N 08437W 00969 0090 111 016 208 162 017 01059 0000000000
0239 3357N 08439W 01265 0103 101 018 182 148 019 01369 0000000000
0239. 3357N 08441W 01526 0118 106 022 170 096 022 01645 0000000000
0240 3358N 08443W 01810 0130 113 020 152 080 021 01942 0000000000



Ding-Dong-Ding-Dong Vortex comming.

Ummm that's the plane taking off.

Yep thats another one. But anyway the one now will get a vortex very soon.

[Windy]

Wow, 108KT in the SE quad so far... wonder if it'll go any higher. Pretty good for the SE quad.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 240254
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 14 KNHC
0242. 2930N 09231W 03049 5117 135 108 076 076 109 02985 0000000000
0243 2930N 09233W 03047 5122 132 110 074 074 111 02978 0000000000
0243. 2930N 09236W 03048 5131 129 111 066 066 112 02971 0000000000
0244 2930N 09239W 03050 5142 130 113 068 068 114 02961 0000000000
0244. 2931N 09242W 03047 5149 127 114 068 068 114 02951 0000000100
0245 2930N 09244W 03052 5153 127 110 084 084 111 02952 0000000000
0245. 2929N 09245W 03047 5164 128 113 090 090 114 02936 0000000000
0246 2928N 09246W 03047 5170 129 114 086 086 114 02930 0000000000
0246. 2927N 09247W 03049 5179 130 112 088 088 113 02923 0000000100
0247 2926N 09247W 03045 5186 132 116 086 086 117 02912 0000000000
0247. 2924N 09248W 03050 5197 135 115 088 088 116 02906 0000000100
0248 2923N 09248W 03047 5204 136 111 092 092 112 02897 0000000100
0248. 2922N 09248W 03051 5208 136 114 092 092 114 02896 0000000000
0249 2921N 09248W 03045 5214 137 115 094 094 116 02885 0000000000
0249. 2921N 09248W 03053 5219 138 115 096 096 116 02888 0000000000
0250 2920N 09248W 03047 5223 139 112 120 120 113 02878 0000000000
0250. 2918N 09249W 03049 5232 138 113 126 126 115 02870 0000000000
0251 2917N 09251W 03048 5243 138 113 126 126 113 02859 0000000000
0251. 2916N 09252W 03046 5251 137 112 118 118 113 02848 0000000000
0252 2915N 09253W 03046 5267 139 106 112 112 107 02833 0000000000



117kts

[Thunder44]

Wow, 108KT in the SE quad so far... wonder if it'll go any higher. Pretty good for the SE quad.

The winds are out of the SE, they are in the NE Quad. And they haven't reached the center yet.

[Windy]

Did they turn the plane around in the eyewall or something? It went from flying south to flying north!

?

[superfly]

SXXX50 KNHC 240254
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 14 KNHC
0242. 2930N 09231W 03049 5117 135 108 076 076 109 02985 0000000000
0243 2930N 09233W 03047 5122 132 110 074 074 111 02978 0000000000
0243. 2930N 09236W 03048 5131 129 111 066 066 112 02971 0000000000
0244 2930N 09239W 03050 5142 130 113 068 068 114 02961 0000000000
0244. 2931N 09242W 03047 5149 127 114 068 068 114 02951 0000000100
0245 2930N 09244W 03052 5153 127 110 084 084 111 02952 0000000000
0245. 2929N 09245W 03047 5164 128 113 090 090 114 02936 0000000000
0246 2928N 09246W 03047 5170 129 114 086 086 114 02930 0000000000
0246. 2927N 09247W 03049 5179 130 112 088 088 113 02923 0000000100
0247 2926N 09247W 03045 5186 132 116 086 086 117 02912 0000000000
0247. 2924N 09248W 03050 5197 135 115 088 088 116 02906 0000000100
0248 2923N 09248W 03047 5204 136 111 092 092 112 02897 0000000100
0248. 2922N 09248W 03051 5208 136 114 092 092 114 02896 0000000000
0249 2921N 09248W 03045 5214 137 115 094 094 116 02885 0000000000
0249. 2921N 09248W 03053 5219 138 115 096 096 116 02888 0000000000
0250 2920N 09248W 03047 5223 139 112 120 120 113 02878 0000000000
0250. 2918N 09249W 03049 5232 138 113 126 126 115 02870 0000000000
0251 2917N 09251W 03048 5243 138 113 126 126 113 02859 0000000000
0251. 2916N 09252W 03046 5251 137 112 118 118 113 02848 0000000000
0252 2915N 09253W 03046 5267 139 106 112 112 107 02833 0000000000



117kts

I think the thing to note here is that how wide the max windfield is. That entire 10 minute area had 110+ kts flight level which equates to 115-120MPH winds.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 240304
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 15 KNHC
0252. 2914N 09254W 03048 5281 141 108 126 126 109 02821 0000000000
0253 2913N 09255W 03048 5298 141 109 128 128 109 02804 0000000000
0253. 2912N 09257W 03051 5310 139 110 126 126 111 02794 0000000000
0254 2911N 09258W 03047 5326 142 111 132 120 111 02774 0000000000
0254. 2910N 09259W 03048 5343 143 108 126 124 110 02758 0000000000
0255 2909N 09300W 03046 5359 144 106 134 134 106 02741 0000000000
0255. 2908N 09301W 03051 5372 147 106 130 130 106 02732 0000000000
0256 2907N 09303W 03042 5392 146 104 136 136 104 02703 0000000000
0256. 2906N 09304W 03054 5415 145 101 146 118 103 02692 0000000000
0257 2905N 09306W 03048 5435 145 095 144 144 098 02667 0000000000
0257. 2904N 09307W 03049 5453 145 080 152 152 086 02649 0000000000
0258 2903N 09309W 03043 5468 149 066 156 156 071 02629 0000000000
0258. 2902N 09310W 03050 5480 157 043 158 154 050 02622 0000000000
0259 2902N 09312W 03044 5488 171 032 182 142 034 02609 0000000000
0259. 2901N 09314W 03054 5492 172 022 178 148 025 02615 0000000000
0300 2901N 09316W 03044 5489 165 012 180 148 018 02608 0000000000
0300. 2901N 09318W 03051 5486 108 005 178 144 006 02618 0000000000
0301 2900N 09320W 03046 5484 035 006 180 144 009 02616 0000000000
0301. 2900N 09322W 03048 5480 025 010 174 150 012 02621 0000000000
0302 2859N 09324W 03048 5475 357 025 174 148 027 02626 0000000000



They just crossed the center so message comming very shortly.

[dixiebreeze]

11 p.m. Disc. says hovering around 930.

[tornadochaser86]

where is TD 18 in relation to Philepe?

[superfly]

Rita has 25 miles of sustained 115+ MPH winds in the NE quad according to recon data.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 240314
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 16 KNHC
0302. 2857N 09326W 03051 5465 347 030 176 148 033 02639 0000000000
0303 2856N 09327W 03042 5452 339 035 170 148 037 02643 0000000000
0303. 2855N 09329W 03047 5442 333 050 178 154 055 02658 0000000000
0304 2853N 09330W 03049 5424 325 073 200 128 078 02679 0000000000
0304. 2852N 09332W 03051 5399 324 086 198 114 088 02705 0000000000
0305 2851N 09333W 03046 5376 329 089 196 114 094 02723 0000000000
0305. 2849N 09335W 03042 5355 326 086 166 134 090 02741 0000000000
0306 2848N 09336W 03054 5334 330 082 168 114 082 02773 0000000000
0306. 2847N 09338W 03046 5313 329 078 156 120 079 02787 0000000000
0307 2845N 09339W 03049 5294 329 073 144 116 073 02808 0000000000
0307. 2844N 09341W 03045 5279 327 072 150 104 072 02819 0000000000
0308 2843N 09342W 03053 5267 325 072 152 112 073 02839 0000000000
0308. 2841N 09344W 03048 5252 324 069 148 114 070 02849 0000000000
0309 2840N 09345W 03050 5239 324 068 148 118 069 02864 0000000000
0309. 2839N 09346W 03049 5227 328 064 148 120 067 02876 0000000000
0310 2837N 09348W 03047 5219 327 060 138 126 060 02882 0000000000
0310. 2836N 09349W 03050 5206 325 059 156 112 060 02897 0000000000
0311 2835N 09351W 03047 5196 330 059 146 120 060 02905 0000000000
0311. 2834N 09353W 03048 5191 339 058 128 128 059 02911 0000000000
0312 2833N 09355W 03049 5181 342 059 132 130 060 02922 0000000000

[Thunder44]

11 p.m. Disc. says hovering around 930.

That was before the plane reached the center.

[Scorpion]

That could be 2 hours of major winds for people. Very bad.

[Derek Ortt]

why do I feel like I am talking to a wall?

we dont have a 90 percent reduction factor for this storm and have not had it for a while

[camilletider]

I have repeatedly noticed the same wind over-statement. I don't resent the NHC doing this but make no mistake, they definitely practice stretching the upper limit wind figures in areas of landfall as a way trying to increase public response. Simply compare given wind figures given in advisory products up against whatever hard data is available and you will see an unmistakable bias toward high wind figures in these products near public ares vs. areas over open water. Some of us are simply wired to think in terms of what are the straight facts and have to work a little harder in accepting that in the real world things just can't be done that way. I'm speaking for myself and I don't mean to presume what Derrick is thinking without discussing it with him first. Derrick, I appreciate what you contribute to our group and I didn't take it as you putting down the NHC, just making a comment and a correct one at that.

Before everyone gets the wrong idea though, I am a huge supporter of the NHC. I make the point that they do as Derek said but is not for media sensationalism but rather a genuine desire to protect lives. I am afraid that there coming challeges from groups like accu-crud that will turn these kind of things against them so they may have to rethink this practice.

[Derek Ortt]

I understand what NHC is doing, and I am doing the same, artifically keeping Rita as a cat 3 hurricane, basically flat out said as such in the latest forecast discussion

However, no place is going to have sustained winds of cat 3 intensity for 20 minutes

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 240324
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 17 KNHC
0312. 2833N 09356W 03050 5174 350 064 126 126 068 02930 0000000000
0313 2832N 09358W 03046 5165 353 073 114 114 075 02935 0000000000
0313. 2831N 09400W 03047 5158 355 078 106 106 080 02943 0000000000
0314 2830N 09402W 03052 5145 354 081 100 100 083 02961 0000000000
0314. 2828N 09404W 03048 5122 347 082 086 086 084 02979 0000000100
0315 2827N 09406W 03029 5107 329 075 086 086 084 02976 0000000100
0315. 2826N 09407W 03098 5095 321 065 090 090 067 03057 0000000000
0316 2824N 09408W 03112 5086 323 067 098 098 068 03080 0000000000
0316. 2822N 09409W 03051 5085 328 066 102 102 066 03020 0000000000
0317 2821N 09410W 03049 5080 330 065 102 102 067 03023 0000000000
0317. 2819N 09411W 03046 5073 329 063 108 108 063 03027 0000000000
0318 2817N 09413W 03049 5067 327 064 112 112 065 03036 0000000000
0318. 2815N 09413W 03050 5062 325 067 116 116 067 03042 0000000000
0319 2813N 09414W 03045 5057 323 067 106 106 068 03042 0000000000
0319. 2812N 09416W 03049 5051 323 067 096 096 068 03052 0000000000
0320 2810N 09417W 03048 5047 322 066 098 098 067 03055 0000000000
0320. 2809N 09418W 03048 5044 317 064 116 098 066 03058 0000000000
0321 2808N 09420W 03049 5041 320 061 124 098 062 03062 0000000000
0321. 2807N 09421W 03047 5036 318 059 126 086 060 03065 0000000000
0322 2805N 09422W 03046 5032 318 059 124 086 059 03068 0000000000

[Windy]

Jeeze, USAF is taking their time relaying the dropsonde!