ATL: IRENE - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z NOGAPS:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All

Hits Miami and runs up the east coast of FL

.....But then again it is just the crappy NOGAPS right, or so people say

[gatorcane]

18Z NOGAPS:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All

Hits Miami and runs up the east coast of FL

.....But then again it is just the crappy NOGAPS right, or so people say

Hey but NOGAPs has been calling for a South Florida hit for many days now..I think at least 5 days ago it was calling for that.

[TBCaneFreak]

I still think this is more a threat to Key West than Miami and eventually the Panhandle.

I agree with Ivan, the trend has been west with the majority of models and the GFS does have this moving back over the Gulf before landfall near Appalachicola. I think this goes a bit further west than this when all is said and done, just west of Key West and toward the Panhandle.

Thas terrible news...This is going to be a large circulation, most likely, passing offshore Tampa instead of being kept in check by land interaction...Thats bad news

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z NOGAPS:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All

Hits Miami and runs up the east coast of FL

.....But then again it is just the crappy NOGAPS right, or so people say

Hey but NOGAPs has been calling for a South Florida hit for many days now..I think at least 5 days ago it was calling for that.

That is exactly my point. You read my mind. So many discount the NOGAPS by saying that it is the worst model. I find it very alarming that the NOGAPS has been consistently for a South Florida hit for days....

Not only that, but it is also very close to both the GFS and Euro....

[gatorcane]

Yeah but the GFS was hitting South Florida 5 days ago also. Looks like if that verifies, it will hit a homerun as it called for this long before the ECMWF.

[indian]

i still think there is a possibility of irene making it as far west as the upper texas coast

[Ivanhater]

BTW here is what I am talking about by the angle smoothing out further left with each run after hitting South Florida

Could be a similar track as Hurricane 2 in 1899

[WeatherEmperor]

[quote="Ivanhater"]BTW here is what I am talking about by the angle smoothing out further left with each run after hitting South Florida

Could be a similar track as Hurricane 2 in 1899

Michael,

That is an excellent example. I think a track like that is very much likely to happen.

[wzrgirl1]

i still think there is a possibility of irene making it as far west as the upper texas coast

There is absolutely nothing that points in that direction and I think you may be trolling. Please stop.

[indian]

i still think there is a possibility of irene making it as far west as the upper texas coast

There is absolutely nothing that points in that direction and I think you may be trolling. Please stop.

take a look at the ensembles...they are shifting a little west each run...and no i am not trolling...just my opinion

[KWT]

That is an interesting track, I suspect the GFS takes it a little too much to the NW/NNW given the synoptics pattern aloft, but its still possible that something like that could happen.

Fine margins as to whether it takes the whole way up the land type of track or whether it gets longer over water...longer over water probably allows a restrengthening back to hurricane strength as conditions aloft are forecasted to be real good by the models.

[thundercam96]

If The Storm Ends Up Riding the the west coast of flordia , What Will be the Strength?

[Rgv20]

BTW here is what I am talking about by the angle smoothing out further left with each run after hitting South Florida

Could be a similar track as Hurricane 2 in 1899

Nice find and with Irene looking like its going to be a large TC its possible that the whole state of Florida could experience Tropical Storm Conditions when its all over.

[Rainband]

BTW here is what I am talking about by the angle smoothing out further left with each run after hitting South Florida

Could be a similar track as Hurricane 2 in 1899

looks like georges man bit a lil right

[Tampa_God]

If The Storm Ends Up Riding the the west coast of flordia , What Will be the Strength?

Depends on the track. If it stays over water and briefly crosses over Cuba, West Florida will be talking about a stronger hurricane. If it interacts with Hispaniola and Cuba for a good amount of time, the mountains and land interaction will rapidly weaken Irene.

[Steve H.]

Hitting Texas!!!!!!!!! That's ridiculous!! But take her away from Florida and I'm good with that. I fear the operational EC and the GFS, and well, the NOGAPS are still on to something. Though I'm putting up the deflector shield and the cone of silence if I see one more consistent EC run.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS Ensemble Mean

[jinftl]

I would say a track east of florida and up the east coast is more likely than a track west of 85W given the current official forecast from the NHC. Probability of ts force winds higher in Bahamas than Havana as of 7pm advisory.

If someone sees Texas on this map right now, i am intrigued. The margin of error out 120 hours is 200 or 250 miles...to speculate beyond the 120 hour mark now is nuts. Things can change, but right now, this is a more imminent threat to the Greater Antilles.

i still think there is a possibility of irene making it as far west as the upper texas coast

There is absolutely nothing that points in that direction and I think you may be trolling. Please stop.

[KWT]

If The Storm Ends Up Riding the the west coast of flordia , What Will be the Strength?

Gosh thats a tough question to answer, based on the models could be anything from a 55-65kts system to a major hurricane, I wouldn't like to call it.

Lets hope the GFDL gets a proper grip of it this run!

[rockyman]

The 18z GFS Ensemble Mean shows an eastward shift from the 12z. Perhaps, we are slowly narrowing the discrepancy between the Ensembles and the Operational