2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[stormlover2013]

So quiet for a longer period of time? Maybe signs of a below average season?

Sent from my LG-SP320 using Tapatalk

July is always quiet!!!

[GeneratorPower]

So quiet for a longer period of time? Maybe signs of a below average season?

Sent from my LG-SP320 using Tapatalk

July is always quiet!!!

There is always a busy June followed by a dead July. Feels like every year.

[Visioen]

Not meant to repeat @cycloneye's post of these SST anomalies on the previous page .... same content from a different source .... where oh where are the MDR is cooling handwringers

http://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1284258942500179969?s=20

Well to be fair, the MDR was cooling back then, and no one said it wouldn't warm up again

[cycloneye]

1995 mentioned here.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1284466592571691008




 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1284469953215762433

[TheStormExpert]

So quiet for a longer period of time? Maybe signs of a below average season?

Sent from my LG-SP320 using Tapatalk

For the 200th time, the signs are that we are in mid July and there no signs at all of a below average season ahead, not one expert disagrees.
Fairly active seasons have had very quiet July like 1950, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2012, 2017

Not to mention we’ve had two named storms so far this month. This “quiet season” discussion can resume on September 1st!

[St0rmTh0r]

So quiet for a longer period of time? Maybe signs of a below average season?

Sent from my LG-SP320 using Tapatalk

For the 200th time, the signs are that we are in mid July and there no signs at all of a below average season ahead, not one expert disagrees.
Fairly active seasons have had very quiet July like 1950, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2012, 2017

Not to mention we’ve had two named storms so far this month. This “quiet season” discussion can resume on September 1st!

People keep trying to compare this season to 2005 but that was an extremely rare anomalous event having two majors hurricanes in july. As many have pointed out like yourself even hyperactive years had no july storms

[NDG]

1995 mentioned here.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1284466592571691008

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1284469953215762433

Not only was the TUTT in 2013 and 1970 not in its best position compared to this year so far, at this same time there was also much more subsidence in both years, in 2013 in continued through the heart of the hurricane season.

[TheStormExpert]

1995 mentioned here.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1284466592571691008

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1284469953215762433

Not only was the TUTT in 2013 and 1970 not in its best position compared to this year so far, at this same time there was also much more subsidence in both years, in 2013 in continued through the heart of the hurricane season.

https://i.imgur.com/P4qDjYL.gif
https://i.imgur.com/BiwZrzJ.gif
https://i.imgur.com/2M3wOQM.gif
https://i.imgur.com/8DUbkfx.gif

Won’t that subsidence west of 50°W effect things that travel west?

[NDG]

1995 mentioned here.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1284466592571691008

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1284469953215762433

Not only was the TUTT in 2013 and 1970 not in its best position compared to this year so far, at this same time there was also much more subsidence in both years, in 2013 in continued through the heart of the hurricane season.

https://i.imgur.com/P4qDjYL.gif
https://i.imgur.com/BiwZrzJ.gif
https://i.imgur.com/2M3wOQM.gif
https://i.imgur.com/8DUbkfx.gif

Won’t that subsidence west of 50°W effect things that travel west?

Keep in mind that the map is an anomaly map, not that there is no rising air present, so far this year velocity potential has not been way off from average in the western MDR compared to 2013 and 1970.

[cycloneye]

Caribbean shear is down.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1284483198395850753

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1284508308762759176

[Hurricane Mike]

Just to chime in here, I never really thought we'd see significant tropical activity in July this year. That comes and goes every few years. I know 1996 had July activity with Bertha and Cesar. 2003 had Hurricane Claudette's long Caribbean/Gulf track. 2005 was an anomaly with Cindy, Dennis and Emily. 2008 had another Bertha. But that's still only four seasons out of 24 years. Those were mostly from early season African waves, and we had a good sign in 2005 and 2008 of July activity with monster waves crashing off Africa throughout June and July and holding together decently. I didn't see any signs of that this year.

Besides, last year had Hurricane Barry, so I figured we scooped up our July hurricane for the next few years. I'm used to the seasons like 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, ect where you have a few tropical storms at most before the cap comes off mid-late August.

I expect that to occur this season. Give it 4-6 weeks.

[drezee]

Duplicate

[TheStormExpert]

Not only was the TUTT in 2013 and 1970 not in its best position compared to this year so far, at this same time there was also much more subsidence in both years, in 2013 in continued through the heart of the hurricane season.

https://i.imgur.com/P4qDjYL.gif
https://i.imgur.com/BiwZrzJ.gif
https://i.imgur.com/2M3wOQM.gif
https://i.imgur.com/8DUbkfx.gif

Won’t that subsidence west of 50°W effect things that travel west?

Keep in mind that the map is an anomaly map, not that there is no rising air present, so far this year velocity potential has not been way off from average in the western MDR compared to 2013 and 1970.

But will that still be enough subsidence to suppress activity in the western part of the basin?

[CyclonicFury]

Won’t that subsidence west of 50°W effect things that travel west?

Keep in mind that the map is an anomaly map, not that there is no rising air present, so far this year velocity potential has not been way off from average in the western MDR compared to 2013 and 1970.

But will that still be enough subsidence to suppress activity in the western part of the basin?

Doubtful, that feature is common even in hyperactive seasons. Subsidence doesn't mean much if a mature TC has already developed.

[TheStormExpert]

Keep in mind that the map is an anomaly map, not that there is no rising air present, so far this year velocity potential has not been way off from average in the western MDR compared to 2013 and 1970.

But will that still be enough subsidence to suppress activity in the western part of the basin?

Doubtful, that feature is common even in hyperactive seasons. Subsidence doesn't mean much if a mature TC has already developed.

Ok, thanks! Never really look at those maps so I don’t know much about it.

[Ivanhater]

To me, it is starting to look like once we get our next named system, it is game on for the next 3 months with little quiet time.

[NDG]

Keep in mind that the map is an anomaly map, not that there is no rising air present, so far this year velocity potential has not been way off from average in the western MDR compared to 2013 and 1970.

But will that still be enough subsidence to suppress activity in the western part of the basin?

Doubtful, that feature is common even in hyperactive seasons. Subsidence doesn't mean much if a mature TC has already developed.

Correct, in hyperactive/busy seasons some subsidence over the western Atlantic basin.
I think that as long as it is not centered in the middle of the Atlantic Basin it does not do much already developed systems tracking westward.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1284577118890995713

[Hammy]

There's a nearly convection-free but clearly defined closed circulation near 50W--It seems that the low level conditions are significantly more favorable than in most recent years even at 20N so its now just a matter of the dry subsiding air clearing out.