ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

Eye has been warming, so I would guess the ERC is close to finishing

I don’t think so. The new eye will be bigger than this. Convection around the old eye has warmed, so we might start seeing a larger eye get carved out of it. Hopefully this excellent UL setup persists through tomorrow and allows Sam to have one last burst of intensification once the EWRC is done.

Update: look at the 1955z IR frame on Tropical Tidbits. A gap is opening up in the innermost part of the CDO, signaling that the larger eye is starting to clear

[us89]

Regarding the talk of how long this has lasted as a major hurricane... I would not be surprised if post-season analysis brings it below major status for a bit after its first big EWRC (the one that happened right as recon was getting in). If that maintained cat 3 intensity throughout, it was one of the ugliest cat 3s I've ever seen on satellite.

[kevin]

Regarding the talk of how long this has lasted as a major hurricane... I would not be surprised if post-season analysis brings it below major status for a bit after its first big EWRC (the one that happened right as recon was getting in). If that maintained cat 3 intensity throughout, it was one of the ugliest cat 3s I've ever seen on satellite.

Yeah indeed, I mentioned that as well. Just looked at the dvorak numbers and they went down to 972mb/90kt after the EWRC and I think that might be quite accurate. Post-analysis will figure it to be certain, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see the initial peak raised to 140 kt but the dip afterwards lowered to 95 or 90 kt.

[Owasso]

Recon is up.

[grapealcoholic]

Eye has been warming, so I would guess the ERC is close to finishing

I don’t think so. The new eye will be bigger than this. Convection around the old eye has warmed, so we might start seeing a larger eye get carved out of it. Hopefully this excellent UL setup persists through tomorrow and allows Sam to have one last burst of intensification once the EWRC is done.

Update: look at the 1955z IR frame on Tropical Tidbits. A gap is opening up in the innermost part of the CDO, signaling that the larger eye is starting to clear

We'll see. Convection is building back in on the NW side

[FireRat]

Sam has been such a nice storm to track, so nice to see such a beast that isn't wrecking someone's town! Sam is well on its way to being a low end Cat 5 imo. Reminds me of Igor from 2010

[skyline385]

Kinda funny how the CDO is cooling off again just as recon took off lol, at this point Sam is just messing with everyone...

[Owasso]

Very nice structure.

[grapealcoholic]

https://i.postimg.cc/43Srfs2q/20210929.png

Very nice structure.

There's a secondary eyewall but it looks much weaker than the inner core. We'll see what happens

[Owasso]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1443313881947021313

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1443313881947021313?s=21

There’s either something I’m not getting, or that inner eyewall on satellite only exists at the upper levels. Because it looks to be going through a pretty textbook Erc right now.

[DioBrando]

 https://twitter.com/JakeCarstens/status/1442549604181069826

[grapealcoholic]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1443313881947021313?s=21

There’s either something I’m not getting, or that inner eyewall on satellite only exists at the upper levels. Because it looks to be going through a pretty textbook Erc right now.

That inner core convection right now is legit. Seems to have finished up the ERC

[Ubuntwo]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1443313881947021313?s=21

There’s either something I’m not getting, or that inner eyewall on satellite only exists at the upper levels. Because it looks to be going through a pretty textbook Erc right now.

That inner core convection right now is legit. Seems to have finished up the ERC

That's what cheezy is referring to. Two convective bands separated by a moat suggest the ERC is still a work in progress.

[Ubuntwo]

111kt SFMR and 121kt FL in the SE quad. Better mixing now. Pressure 941.9

[Owasso]

Dropsonde backs up 942mb.

[grapealcoholic]

942 storms don't play around. It knows what's its doing regarding the ERC

[Ubuntwo]

VDM out with a closed 25 nm eye. Looks like the inner eyewall only remains in the upper levels as cheezywxguy suggested, almost no trace in the wind profile. All looks good for deepening tonight.

[aspen]

VDM out with a closed 25 nm eye. Looks like the inner eyewall only remains in the upper levels as cheezywxguy suggested, almost no trace in the wind profile. All looks good for deepening tonight.

Maybe a Cat 5 is on the table then. The latest NHC advisory keeps its peak until late Thursday, so conditions look favorable for intensification for the next 30-36 hours. It won’t take any crazy deepening for Sam to get back into the 920s since it’s already at 942mb.

[Teban54]

Maybe a Cat 5 is on the table then. The latest NHC advisory keeps its peak until late Thursday, so conditions look favorable for intensification for the next 30-36 hours. It won’t take any crazy deepening for Sam to get back into the 920s since it’s already at 942mb.

Off-topic, but I'm having a hard time getting used to your new avatar That will happen eventually, though.