Gosh I had a feeling this would happen. My sister and I were keeping our fingers crossed that it would go with the weakness that Gaston could cause but I guess it wont bite. Mike, if the EURO does the same thing for the next 2-3 runs then by all means the EURO needs to be very carefully taken into consideration.
<RICKY>
Frances Advisories
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Sean in New Orleans
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New Orleans' Meteorologists Thoughts on Frances Tonight
Copied this from a public forum from a local television station tonight...One of our mets from Channel 4 posted some good points and thoughts tonight for us all, here in New Orleans, in a sensitive, yet frank way:
The Bottom Line: Anywhere from the Carolinas to Louisiana is fair game for Frances
I thought I would quickly type out some thoughts here before I headed off to bed tonight. Most of this will rehash what I said during the 10pm broadcast.
The ridge is building back west tonight north of our darling little Frances. You can see the evidence of that by looking at the vapor loops and her turn, as expected, to the WNW. She is pretty much right on NHC’s track and they have done a great job thus far.
Expect her to fluctuate a bit in strength over the next several days. As NHC says, she could even reach cat 5 status at some point, but don’t expect her to stay there long.
A path north of Puerto Rico still looks likely, but the problems come after that. Gaston will be exiting via the approaching trough/front by early this week and could play a bit of a role in what happens with Frances. This is where a lot of the uncertainly exists.
The trough/front that absorbs Gaston will certainly erode our subtropical high to an extent and that may be the key to all this. The path of Frances will depend on how quickly that ridge (high) rebounds and builds back west after the trough lifts out. Some models are indicating a weakness remaining, and as a result, steers Frances along the FL east coast and then toward the Carolinas. I showed a general track tonight during our late broadcast that reflected this scenario. However, even though I still think this is possible, I think it may be a bit less likely based on the limited information we have now.
The general model consensus is that the ridge will recover quickly and build back west, forcing Frances in a more westerly direction into FL and eventually into the Gulf. I also showed a general track tonight reflecting this scenario. Many on this board have wanted to take it to the bank that Frances will make it into the Gulf due to this model consensus. While I wouldn’t go that far just yet, I’d say it’s safe to get those deposit slips ready just in case.
You can’t bank on certain model solutions at this point at all, especially when dealing with storms of this magnitude. However, it is noted the GFS continues to be the furthest west with a possible landfall close to us (also notice the GFS showing Frances feeling the effects of the weakness to the north from 108-144 hours, but then rebounding back west as the high builds – VERY curious!), while the European takes Frances into the Carolinas. I still feel as though somewhere in-between these two tracks is a more likely track and as we look at more model ensembles we may get a better feel for what may happen. In fact, the UKMET is in between these two solutions having her cross FL and then going into the panhandle. This looks a bit more realistic to me at this point.
This has been said before and I will say it until I am blue in the face: It is way too early to tell where Frances ends up. We will have better data as she gets closer and once they send a plane in there (and around her). Speculation at this point is just that – speculation.
Now, I want everyone who may be very nervous about this thing coming our way to know the overall chances of that happening are VERY low. Remember, there’s no use worrying about things you can’t control. What you can control, however, is the plan you and your family have if such a storm should threaten the area. Get that together and write it down. Make lists of things to do, things to take, where to go, etc. etc. Everyone who lives in SE LA should have such a plan already in place. If not, now is a good time to start now that you're thinking about this storm.
We will continue to monitor things, of course, and as we move into the upcoming week, the picture will become clearer.
I need to get a little sleep. See you all on TV at noon, 5:30 and 10 later today.
John
John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116
The Bottom Line: Anywhere from the Carolinas to Louisiana is fair game for Frances
I thought I would quickly type out some thoughts here before I headed off to bed tonight. Most of this will rehash what I said during the 10pm broadcast.
The ridge is building back west tonight north of our darling little Frances. You can see the evidence of that by looking at the vapor loops and her turn, as expected, to the WNW. She is pretty much right on NHC’s track and they have done a great job thus far.
Expect her to fluctuate a bit in strength over the next several days. As NHC says, she could even reach cat 5 status at some point, but don’t expect her to stay there long.
A path north of Puerto Rico still looks likely, but the problems come after that. Gaston will be exiting via the approaching trough/front by early this week and could play a bit of a role in what happens with Frances. This is where a lot of the uncertainly exists.
The trough/front that absorbs Gaston will certainly erode our subtropical high to an extent and that may be the key to all this. The path of Frances will depend on how quickly that ridge (high) rebounds and builds back west after the trough lifts out. Some models are indicating a weakness remaining, and as a result, steers Frances along the FL east coast and then toward the Carolinas. I showed a general track tonight during our late broadcast that reflected this scenario. However, even though I still think this is possible, I think it may be a bit less likely based on the limited information we have now.
The general model consensus is that the ridge will recover quickly and build back west, forcing Frances in a more westerly direction into FL and eventually into the Gulf. I also showed a general track tonight reflecting this scenario. Many on this board have wanted to take it to the bank that Frances will make it into the Gulf due to this model consensus. While I wouldn’t go that far just yet, I’d say it’s safe to get those deposit slips ready just in case.
You can’t bank on certain model solutions at this point at all, especially when dealing with storms of this magnitude. However, it is noted the GFS continues to be the furthest west with a possible landfall close to us (also notice the GFS showing Frances feeling the effects of the weakness to the north from 108-144 hours, but then rebounding back west as the high builds – VERY curious!), while the European takes Frances into the Carolinas. I still feel as though somewhere in-between these two tracks is a more likely track and as we look at more model ensembles we may get a better feel for what may happen. In fact, the UKMET is in between these two solutions having her cross FL and then going into the panhandle. This looks a bit more realistic to me at this point.
This has been said before and I will say it until I am blue in the face: It is way too early to tell where Frances ends up. We will have better data as she gets closer and once they send a plane in there (and around her). Speculation at this point is just that – speculation.
Now, I want everyone who may be very nervous about this thing coming our way to know the overall chances of that happening are VERY low. Remember, there’s no use worrying about things you can’t control. What you can control, however, is the plan you and your family have if such a storm should threaten the area. Get that together and write it down. Make lists of things to do, things to take, where to go, etc. etc. Everyone who lives in SE LA should have such a plan already in place. If not, now is a good time to start now that you're thinking about this storm.
We will continue to monitor things, of course, and as we move into the upcoming week, the picture will become clearer.
I need to get a little sleep. See you all on TV at noon, 5:30 and 10 later today.
John
John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116
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WeatherEmperor
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MWatkins wrote:I'm good with this up to a point...the Euorpean model does NOT take Frances to to the carolinas. He's looking at a model run 48 hours old. The most recent European takes Frances smack dab into south FL.
Good night.
MW
That damn European model really bugs me. Why cant it just curve Frances out to sea?
<RICKY>
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I just looked at the EURO
I just looked at the EURO. Mike Watkins posted it elsewhere. It has Frances parking in downtown Ft Lauderdale at about midnight next Saturday.
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GFDL initialization for Frances, different runs...
If you look at the intitialization for Gaston, and for Frances... When it is trying to intialize for Frances, it takes it more northerly, however the run that initializes Gaston takes Frances straight through the central Bahamas on what it seems like is a track into south fla.
Shouldn't the Gaston intializtation show the weakness in the ridge if it trully were there, since Gaston is the one creating it!
What i see... There is something flawed in the GFDL run for Frances.
What do you all see...
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
Run the GFDL, but select either Gaston, or Francis.
-Eric
Shouldn't the Gaston intializtation show the weakness in the ridge if it trully were there, since Gaston is the one creating it!
What i see... There is something flawed in the GFDL run for Frances.
What do you all see...
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
Run the GFDL, but select either Gaston, or Francis.
-Eric
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SouthernWx
I'm not sure what is going on with the GFDL. The latest run shows a large area of high pressure building over the eastern U.S. from 96-126 hours...yet inexplicably, the GFDL still has the hurricane moving NW toward South Carolina or Georgia (right into the building ridge).
There is NO WAY that will happen....Frances will have to turn underneath (toward the west) a high pressure ridge of that magnitude. Why the GFDL doesn't show either a turn to the west OR a stall (slowing of the hurricane's forward speed) in day 4 and 5 is beyond me.
There is NO WAY that will happen....Frances will have to turn underneath (toward the west) a high pressure ridge of that magnitude. Why the GFDL doesn't show either a turn to the west OR a stall (slowing of the hurricane's forward speed) in day 4 and 5 is beyond me.
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GFDL
GFDL could be forecasting the high quickly retreating northeastward and Frances moving in behind it. Except for model error, it's the only explanation I can think of...
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NWS AFD Key West
Island residents have been put on notice. Thoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert
FXUS62 KEYW 290751
AFDEYW
FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
350 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
AIR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE MID-80S OVER WATER TO
NEAR 80F AT ISLAND INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM NEAR
5KT AT FLORIDA REEF C-MAN PLATFORMS TO CALM AT ISLAND INTERIOR
SITES. WIND DIRECTIONS HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE IN BOTH SPACE AND
TIME. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER
WATER. MOVEMENT WAS EITHER NEARLY STATIONARY OR A VERY SLOW DRIFT TO
THE NORTH. A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE KEYS SERVICE AREA...BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM GASTON TO THE NORTH
AND THE TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS IS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC.
.FORECASTS...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY...WEATHER CONDITIONS BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS OF THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. A MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR HEATED ISLANDS DURING THE
DAY AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AT ANY TIME. CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE
SLOW AND ERRATIC. BY MONDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER MEAN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND A RIDGE TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...ALLOWING MORE ORGANIZED
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP LOCALLY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST...AS THE KEYS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC-
SCALE CIRCULATION SURROUNDING HURRICANE FRANCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE APPROACHING SOME PORTION OF THE BAHAMIAN ISLES BY THURSDAY
EVENING. NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PROBABLY FRESHEN TO NEAR 15 KNOTS BY
LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR THESE DAYS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE FRANCES.
NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PROBABLY FRESHEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY...PERHAPS
IN EXCESS OF 20KT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...CONDITIONS COULD
DETERIORATE FURTHER DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
HURRICANE FRANCES. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO MAKE A HIGH-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST SIX DAYS OUT WHEN DEALING WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THEREFORE...FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD STAY
UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY
WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT OR GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR THE KEYS. A MORE ORGANIZED RIDGE
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE KEYS WILL ALLOW GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES TO DEVELOP TUESDAY. BREEZES WILL THEN TURN
NORTHEAST BY EARLY THURSDAY...AS THE LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION AROUND
HURRICANE FRANCES APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
MOONRISE....755 PM EDT
FULL MOON...1022 PM EDT
MOONSET.....629 AM EDT SUNDAY
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KEYW AND KMTH TERMINALS...AS WELL AS THE KMIA-KEYW FLIGHT ROUTE.
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ANY
TIME...HOWEVER MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE MAINLAND PORTION OF THE AIR ROUTE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION...AFTERNOON CLOUD LINES MAY CREATE PERIODS OF CEILINGS LESS
THAN 3000 FEET...REDUCING FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 90/80/90/80/90 30/30/30/30/30
MARATHON 93/80/93/80/93 30/30/30/30/30
&&
.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.......K. KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...L. KASPER
Robert
FXUS62 KEYW 290751
AFDEYW
FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
350 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
AIR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE MID-80S OVER WATER TO
NEAR 80F AT ISLAND INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM NEAR
5KT AT FLORIDA REEF C-MAN PLATFORMS TO CALM AT ISLAND INTERIOR
SITES. WIND DIRECTIONS HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE IN BOTH SPACE AND
TIME. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER
WATER. MOVEMENT WAS EITHER NEARLY STATIONARY OR A VERY SLOW DRIFT TO
THE NORTH. A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE KEYS SERVICE AREA...BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM GASTON TO THE NORTH
AND THE TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS IS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC.
.FORECASTS...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY...WEATHER CONDITIONS BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS OF THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. A MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR HEATED ISLANDS DURING THE
DAY AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AT ANY TIME. CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE
SLOW AND ERRATIC. BY MONDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER MEAN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND A RIDGE TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...ALLOWING MORE ORGANIZED
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP LOCALLY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST...AS THE KEYS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC-
SCALE CIRCULATION SURROUNDING HURRICANE FRANCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE APPROACHING SOME PORTION OF THE BAHAMIAN ISLES BY THURSDAY
EVENING. NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PROBABLY FRESHEN TO NEAR 15 KNOTS BY
LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR THESE DAYS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE FRANCES.
NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PROBABLY FRESHEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY...PERHAPS
IN EXCESS OF 20KT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...CONDITIONS COULD
DETERIORATE FURTHER DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
HURRICANE FRANCES. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO MAKE A HIGH-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST SIX DAYS OUT WHEN DEALING WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THEREFORE...FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD STAY
UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY
WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT OR GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR THE KEYS. A MORE ORGANIZED RIDGE
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE KEYS WILL ALLOW GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES TO DEVELOP TUESDAY. BREEZES WILL THEN TURN
NORTHEAST BY EARLY THURSDAY...AS THE LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION AROUND
HURRICANE FRANCES APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
MOONRISE....755 PM EDT
FULL MOON...1022 PM EDT
MOONSET.....629 AM EDT SUNDAY
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KEYW AND KMTH TERMINALS...AS WELL AS THE KMIA-KEYW FLIGHT ROUTE.
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ANY
TIME...HOWEVER MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE MAINLAND PORTION OF THE AIR ROUTE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION...AFTERNOON CLOUD LINES MAY CREATE PERIODS OF CEILINGS LESS
THAN 3000 FEET...REDUCING FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 90/80/90/80/90 30/30/30/30/30
MARATHON 93/80/93/80/93 30/30/30/30/30
&&
.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.......K. KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...L. KASPER
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Stormsfury
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NWS AFD Melbourne, Fl
EC Florida residents need to monitor closley. Thoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert
FXUS62 KMLB 290737
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
338 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSISTING EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ON WC FL COAST. ACTIVITY
OCCURRING IN AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WEAK VORT ALOFT ROTATING
AROUND PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON OFF THE SC COAST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LATEST NHC ADVISORY MOVES GASTON ACROSS THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN EFFECTS TO EC FL WILL BE AN
INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH LOWER LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD
DELAY SEA BREEZE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SOUTH...AND LIKELY ALTOGETHER
NORTH OF THE CAPE. THE INHIBITION OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND APPROACH MID 90S IN SOME
COASTAL SECTIONS. COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED BY SOME DECREASED PWATS AND SUPPRESSION TO THE SOUTH OF
GASTON...STORMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AS ANOTHER WEAK VORT SPOKE
ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN AREAS WHERE A LATE SEA
BREEZE MANAGES TO FORM. ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MON...GASTON IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN NC ON MONDAY
WITH WSW LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. THE LOW RIDGE
AXIS WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE KEYS INTO S FL DURING THE DAY.
GFS/ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MODEL CONSENSUS POPS AROUND 40
PCT. LOW LVL FLOW WEAKENS A BIT ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BRZ TO NUDGE SLOWLY INLAND
ACROSS THE S CSTL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE SCT LATE DAY TSTM DEVLOPMENT WITH THE EAST COAST BRZ. FAR
NRN SECTIONS MAY ALSO SEE ACTIVITY TRACK EASTWARD AS THE WEST COAST
BRZS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA. HAVE TRENDED A HIGH TEMPS A A
DEG OR TWO HIGHER THAN GFS MOS...ESPEC ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE
LWR 90S.
TUE...BROAD LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE AFTN. GFS SHOWS PWATS REMAINING AROUND
1.8 WITH LIGHTER LOW LVL WINDS ALLOWING FOR SCT AFTN TSTMS WITH AFTN
SEA BRZ BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND. CURRENT POPS AROUND 40 PCT LOOK
GOOD...HAVE TRIMMED TREASHURE COAST BEACHES TO 30 PCT WITH SEA BRZ
PUSHING INLAND IN THE AFTN.
WED...LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD TO MOVE TWD THE CAPE WITH A BIT
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. PRECIP WATER
VALUES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SO POPS IN THE 40 RANGE FOR
THE INTERIOR AND INLAND SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. HAVE
PLACED A 30 PCT CHANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES WITH
SEA BRZ MOVING INLAND BY MID TO LATE AFTN.
THU-SAT...LATEST NHC TRACK TAKES HURRICANE FRANCES TWD THE SE
BAHAMAS WED NGT INTO THU. LOW LVL ENE FLOW (H9-H8) SHOULD INCREASE
TO 10-20 KNOTS BY AFTN WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE AFTN ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW SCT RANGE ON
THE COAST AND 40 PCT INLAND...THOUGH THAT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A
BIT IN LATER FORECASTS DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF FRANCES. FRIDAY...00Z GFS RUN KEEPS FRANCES MOVING
ON A WNW TRACK THROUGH THE BAHAMAS WITH NE WINDS BECOMING BREEZY TO
WINDY DURING THE DAY. STILL MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME
SUBSIDENCE BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF FRANCES AT THIS
POINT. HAVE KEPT POPS AT 40 PCT WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING
ONSHORE...WITH THE CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS WELL.
FOR DAY 7...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 00Z GFS WITH MID LVL RIDGE HOLDING
ITS OWN NORTH OF FRANCES. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE HRCN AND HEADING OF HRCN IN DAY 7 TIME FRAME.
ANY SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE THE TRACK COULD BE SHIFTED
NORTHWARD...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE ONE WAY OR
THE OTHER. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW YDAYS DAY 7 HPC POSITION WHICH HAS
THE HRCN NEAR S FL ON SAT. THIS PUTS E CENTRAL FL WITHIN THE 325NM
AVERAGE ERROR CONE AT DAY 5. PERSONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
FRANCES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&.MARINE...OFFSHORE COMPONENT TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER SEAS
OFFSHORE THAN NEAR THE COAST. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE
NORTHERN SEGMENT WHERE A CAUTION HEADLINE WILL CONTINUE. MON THROUGH
WED...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
WATERS WITH SW FLOW EARLY MONDAY BECOMING EAST BY WED EVENING. ON
THU...E/NE FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE SRN MARINE AREA IN THE AFTN. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT
INCREASING TO 3-4 FT BY LATE THU.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 93 74 91 74 / 30 20 40 20
MCO 92 75 92 74 / 30 20 40 20
MLB 92 73 91 74 / 30 20 40 20
VRB 93 72 92 73 / 30 20 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
LONG TERM...GLITTO
Robert
FXUS62 KMLB 290737
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
338 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSISTING EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ON WC FL COAST. ACTIVITY
OCCURRING IN AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WEAK VORT ALOFT ROTATING
AROUND PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON OFF THE SC COAST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LATEST NHC ADVISORY MOVES GASTON ACROSS THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN EFFECTS TO EC FL WILL BE AN
INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH LOWER LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD
DELAY SEA BREEZE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SOUTH...AND LIKELY ALTOGETHER
NORTH OF THE CAPE. THE INHIBITION OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND APPROACH MID 90S IN SOME
COASTAL SECTIONS. COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED BY SOME DECREASED PWATS AND SUPPRESSION TO THE SOUTH OF
GASTON...STORMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AS ANOTHER WEAK VORT SPOKE
ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN AREAS WHERE A LATE SEA
BREEZE MANAGES TO FORM. ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MON...GASTON IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN NC ON MONDAY
WITH WSW LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. THE LOW RIDGE
AXIS WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE KEYS INTO S FL DURING THE DAY.
GFS/ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MODEL CONSENSUS POPS AROUND 40
PCT. LOW LVL FLOW WEAKENS A BIT ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BRZ TO NUDGE SLOWLY INLAND
ACROSS THE S CSTL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE SCT LATE DAY TSTM DEVLOPMENT WITH THE EAST COAST BRZ. FAR
NRN SECTIONS MAY ALSO SEE ACTIVITY TRACK EASTWARD AS THE WEST COAST
BRZS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA. HAVE TRENDED A HIGH TEMPS A A
DEG OR TWO HIGHER THAN GFS MOS...ESPEC ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE
LWR 90S.
TUE...BROAD LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE AFTN. GFS SHOWS PWATS REMAINING AROUND
1.8 WITH LIGHTER LOW LVL WINDS ALLOWING FOR SCT AFTN TSTMS WITH AFTN
SEA BRZ BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND. CURRENT POPS AROUND 40 PCT LOOK
GOOD...HAVE TRIMMED TREASHURE COAST BEACHES TO 30 PCT WITH SEA BRZ
PUSHING INLAND IN THE AFTN.
WED...LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD TO MOVE TWD THE CAPE WITH A BIT
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. PRECIP WATER
VALUES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SO POPS IN THE 40 RANGE FOR
THE INTERIOR AND INLAND SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. HAVE
PLACED A 30 PCT CHANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES WITH
SEA BRZ MOVING INLAND BY MID TO LATE AFTN.
THU-SAT...LATEST NHC TRACK TAKES HURRICANE FRANCES TWD THE SE
BAHAMAS WED NGT INTO THU. LOW LVL ENE FLOW (H9-H8) SHOULD INCREASE
TO 10-20 KNOTS BY AFTN WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE AFTN ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW SCT RANGE ON
THE COAST AND 40 PCT INLAND...THOUGH THAT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A
BIT IN LATER FORECASTS DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF FRANCES. FRIDAY...00Z GFS RUN KEEPS FRANCES MOVING
ON A WNW TRACK THROUGH THE BAHAMAS WITH NE WINDS BECOMING BREEZY TO
WINDY DURING THE DAY. STILL MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME
SUBSIDENCE BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF FRANCES AT THIS
POINT. HAVE KEPT POPS AT 40 PCT WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING
ONSHORE...WITH THE CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS WELL.
FOR DAY 7...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 00Z GFS WITH MID LVL RIDGE HOLDING
ITS OWN NORTH OF FRANCES. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE HRCN AND HEADING OF HRCN IN DAY 7 TIME FRAME.
ANY SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE THE TRACK COULD BE SHIFTED
NORTHWARD...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE ONE WAY OR
THE OTHER. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW YDAYS DAY 7 HPC POSITION WHICH HAS
THE HRCN NEAR S FL ON SAT. THIS PUTS E CENTRAL FL WITHIN THE 325NM
AVERAGE ERROR CONE AT DAY 5. PERSONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
FRANCES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&.MARINE...OFFSHORE COMPONENT TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER SEAS
OFFSHORE THAN NEAR THE COAST. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE
NORTHERN SEGMENT WHERE A CAUTION HEADLINE WILL CONTINUE. MON THROUGH
WED...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
WATERS WITH SW FLOW EARLY MONDAY BECOMING EAST BY WED EVENING. ON
THU...E/NE FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE SRN MARINE AREA IN THE AFTN. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT
INCREASING TO 3-4 FT BY LATE THU.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 93 74 91 74 / 30 20 40 20
MCO 92 75 92 74 / 30 20 40 20
MLB 92 73 91 74 / 30 20 40 20
VRB 93 72 92 73 / 30 20 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
LONG TERM...GLITTO
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NWS AFD Jacksonville, Fl
Thoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
409 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
.UPDATE...TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM ALTAMAHA
SOUND GEORGIA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL BE
REPLACED WITH SCA FOR THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS.
.SHORT TERM...GASTON APPEARS TO BE MAKING A MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE CONTINUING TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES AND CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. OVERALL...TODAY SHOULD BE WARM AND RATHER DRY
WITH SUBSIDENCE AROUND GASTON SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION TODAY.
HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY 30 POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST WITH
WESTERLY FLOW.
GASTON FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
CIRCULATION WILL HAVE DRAGGED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TO
A POSITION JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE JAX CWA BY MONDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH LESS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. SIMILAR SETUP ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK
BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...TRANSITION TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
POSITION OF RIDGE SHOULD HELP DRY ATMOSPHERE OUT A BIT AS WELL WITH
GENERALLY LOW CHANCE POPS EXPECTED. LATE IN THE WEEK...SUBSIDENCE
MAY INCREASE FURTHER AS FAR OUTER REACHES OF FRANCES BEGIN TO
AFFECT AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FRANCES FOR ANY
POSSIBLE IMPACTS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&.MARINE...REGIONAL BUOYS BEGINNING TO SHOW DOWNWARD TREND OF
WINDS/SEAS. AT 06Z...GRAYS REEF BUOY REPORTED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET. SABSOON R2 TOWER REPORTED NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS NEAR 8 FEET. WESTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AS GASTON ADVANCES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. WILL DOWNGRADE SCA TO SCEC FOR FLORIDA OFFSHORE LEGS...WITH NO
HEADLINES FOR FLORIDA NEARSHORE LEGS. OBVIOUSLY...WILL NEED TO MAKE
WHOLESALE CHANGES TO GEORGIA LEGS...ESPECIALLY IF TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 92 71 90 73 / 30 20 40 20
SSI 91 76 90 77 / 30 20 40 20
JAX 93 72 91 74 / 30 20 40 20
SGJ 91 75 90 77 / 30 20 40 20
GNV 92 72 90 73 / 30 20 50 20
OCF 92 72 89 73 / 30 20 50 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 60 NM.
$$
CAMP/ZAPPE
Robert
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
409 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
.UPDATE...TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM ALTAMAHA
SOUND GEORGIA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL BE
REPLACED WITH SCA FOR THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS.
.SHORT TERM...GASTON APPEARS TO BE MAKING A MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE CONTINUING TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES AND CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. OVERALL...TODAY SHOULD BE WARM AND RATHER DRY
WITH SUBSIDENCE AROUND GASTON SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION TODAY.
HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY 30 POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST WITH
WESTERLY FLOW.
GASTON FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
CIRCULATION WILL HAVE DRAGGED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TO
A POSITION JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE JAX CWA BY MONDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH LESS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. SIMILAR SETUP ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK
BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...TRANSITION TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
POSITION OF RIDGE SHOULD HELP DRY ATMOSPHERE OUT A BIT AS WELL WITH
GENERALLY LOW CHANCE POPS EXPECTED. LATE IN THE WEEK...SUBSIDENCE
MAY INCREASE FURTHER AS FAR OUTER REACHES OF FRANCES BEGIN TO
AFFECT AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FRANCES FOR ANY
POSSIBLE IMPACTS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&.MARINE...REGIONAL BUOYS BEGINNING TO SHOW DOWNWARD TREND OF
WINDS/SEAS. AT 06Z...GRAYS REEF BUOY REPORTED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET. SABSOON R2 TOWER REPORTED NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS NEAR 8 FEET. WESTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AS GASTON ADVANCES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. WILL DOWNGRADE SCA TO SCEC FOR FLORIDA OFFSHORE LEGS...WITH NO
HEADLINES FOR FLORIDA NEARSHORE LEGS. OBVIOUSLY...WILL NEED TO MAKE
WHOLESALE CHANGES TO GEORGIA LEGS...ESPECIALLY IF TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 92 71 90 73 / 30 20 40 20
SSI 91 76 90 77 / 30 20 40 20
JAX 93 72 91 74 / 30 20 40 20
SGJ 91 75 90 77 / 30 20 40 20
GNV 92 72 90 73 / 30 20 50 20
OCF 92 72 89 73 / 30 20 50 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 60 NM.
$$
CAMP/ZAPPE
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