Frances Advisories

[TampaFl]

Gulf hurricane ??? Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

FXUS62 KTAE 290717
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

.CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR FLA AND PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCT MID AND HI
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER SE ALA/GA. TEMPS/DEW POINTS MID
70S/AROUND 70 NORTH TO UPPER 70S/MID 70S PANHANDLE COAST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIR MASS LAST 24 HRS. WINDS CALM TO LIGHT NE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS GREAT LAKES WILL CONT EWD TREK
INTO QUEBEC LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION FROM LO INVOF
LAKE ERIE SWWD THRU OHIO VALLEY...EXTREME WRN TENN...NRN LA AND
NCNTRL TEXAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE. CLOSER TO HOME...TS GASTEN MUCH
BETTER DEFINED THAN EARLIER SAT NOW LOCATED AROUND 65 SE OF
CHARLESTON AND SHUD VE SLOWLY N MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS SC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. FATHER S...SURFACE HIGH OVER ERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SATELLITE IMAGES CONT TO SHOW LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WRAPPING
AROUND BACK SIDE OF GASTON AND SPREADING SWWD WITH DRIEST (WARMEST)
AIR ACROSS SE THIRD...WETTEST ACROSS NW THIRD OF CWFA. THE
COMBINATION OF GASTON AND GULF HI GENERATING WEST LO LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS LOCAL AREA. 1000-700 MB STEERING FLOW LIGHT WNW. THIS FLOW
FAVORS COASTAL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THUS ZFP 1ST PERIOD WILL SHOW
NW/SE 40-20 PCT POP GRADIENT.

AS ABOVE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES FURTHER EWD..PICKS UP GASTON WHICH
THEN ACCELERATES NEWD TONIGHT. THIS HELPS DRAG AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
RAPIDLY SEWD TO SE ALA MONDAY EVENING. THUS WINDS BACK TO SWLY THEN
SLY...AND LO LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT.
PLUS WITH GASTON WELL NE..SUBSIDENCE NOTICEABLY LESS. ALSO EXPECT
SOME OUTFLOW-SEA BREEZE CLASHES ON MONDAY. POPS NOW SHOW HIGHEST
AFTERNOON POPS IN SW-NE SWATH FROM PANAMA CITY THRU TLH-VLD OR JUST
S OF FRONT. BOUNDARY DROP A LITTLE FURTHER S OF TUESDAY SO NW THIRD
OF CWFA DRIES OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM...IN WAKE OF UPPER TROF AND GASTON..RIDGE BUILDS IN TO
NORTH
SO LOCAL ATMOSPHERE DRIER OUT A BIT AND CLIMO POPS LOOK GOOD. BY
LATE WEEK...FORECAST BECOME INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON FUTURE OF
HURRICANE FRANCIS. FIRST IMPACT MAY BE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND/OR SEAS APALACHEE BAY. &&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT BUOYS CONT VERY LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.
WILL BREAK UP CWF INTO WRN/ERN WATERS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
WINDS/SEAS ERN WATERS SHORT TERM DUE TO TS GASTON..AND END OF
EXTENDED
DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLU OF HURRICANE FRANCIS.

&&

.FIRE WX...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...


TLH 93 73 89 73/ 30 20 50 30
PFN 89 76 88 76/ 40 20 50 30
DHN 89 72 89 72/ 50 20 50 20
ABY 90 72 91 73/ 30 20 50 20
VLD 91 72 90 72/ 30 20 50 30
CTY 90 74 88 73/ 20 20 40 30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

&&

$$

[TampaFl]

Possible Gulf Hurricane???? Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

FXUS62 KTBW 290705
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
305 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUES)...TS GASTON CAUSING WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE
AREA WITH SOME ENHANCED UPPER ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. DRIER
AIR HAS ALSO BEEN PULLED IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF. AS GASTON
MOVES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE AREA FROM THE SE STARTING MONDAY. WINDS BECOME MORE S/SE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS TO ACROSS
CENTRAL FL BY TUESDAY. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS ALLOWING
FOR DECREASED TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...DESPITE A RETURN TO
THE MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE REGIME BY TUES. HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE 30-40% RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO DECREASED CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM (TUES NIGHT-SAT)...THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK LOOKS
UNEVENTFUL...AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLC AND SLOWLY TURNS THE SFC FLOW FROM LIGHT/VARIABLE TUE NIGHT AND
WED TO E OR NE BY THURS...CONTINUING FRI. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR
OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS AS DEEP MOISTURE A SMIDGE DRIER THAN
NORMAL. PCPN TIMING WILL FAVOR AFTN/EVE WITH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THEN...ALL BETS ARE OFF. HURRICANE FRANCES' EVENTUAL TRACK WILL
DETERMINE THE WEEKEND WX. THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
WEATHER HAZARDS SOMEWHERE IN FLORIDA GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN AND INCREASING MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE BIG PICTURE. THAT SAID...IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO SPECULATE...BUT
RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN PAYING ATTENTION NOW.

AS FOR THE WEEKEND GRIDS...THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A TAD MORE
PESSIMISM TO THE CLOUD AND RAIN FCST ON DAY 7. CURRENT RAMPED UP
WINDS AND SEAS SAT/SUN LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE NOT CHANGED THEM.

&&
.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MON EVENING AND THEN REVERT BACK TO THE MORE NORMAL 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 3 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 77 90 77 / 40 20 40 20
FMY 91 76 91 76 / 30 20 30 20
GIF 92 75 92 75 / 40 20 40 20
SRQ 89 76 89 75 / 30 20 40 20
BKV 90 72 90 72 / 40 20 40 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...BSG




[TampaFl]

Stay tuned. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

FXUS62 KMFL 290659
AFDMFL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM TROPICAL STORM GASTON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WELL OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST AND POINTS NORTHWARD. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...EVEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WEAK TROUGH...DUE TO STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

FLOW...MOISTURE...AND STABILITY LEVELS FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY.
THUS...DECIDED TO FOLLOW PERSISTENCE CLOSELY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL AGAIN MEAN A LATE START TO THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT NOT UNTIL
ABOUT MID AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEN...OUTFLOWS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL GET THINGS GOING OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS.

BY TUESDAY...GASTON WILL HAVE LIFTED FAR AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTHWARD
TUESDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW TO BRIEFLY EASTERLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS HURRICANE FRANCES DRAWS
CLOSER.

CONDITIONS BY VERY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL
OF COURSE ALL DEPEND ON WHERE HURRICANE FRANCES DECIDES TO GO. WILL THE
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FRANCES ON A
TRACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA...OR WILL A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OCCUR...
ALLOWING HER TO STAY AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA? THESE ARE QUESTIONS THAT
CANNOT BE ANSWERED WITH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. STAY TUNED TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE EXPERTS AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS POWERFUL HURRICANE.&&

.MARINE...FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...MAINTAINING LOW SEAS AND GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 75 92 75 / 40 30 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 79 91 79 / 30 30 40 30
MIAMI 93 78 92 78 / 40 30 40 30
NAPLES 90 78 90 78 / 20 20 20 20
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[Anonymous]

I think they are trying to prevent a panic for south florida....everyone is sayying miami but officially it shifts north.... Understandable considerring they are sayying cat5 is possible and what South Fla is still recovering from charley... the cone is over the only area (south Fla) where all the Pros are sayying so I'd discount the official track and go by the cone--That track is what got Port Charlotte---use the cone

[Nimbus]

After they reinitialize the models we may see the track back over the gulf states west of Florida. New Orleans is so low in elevation that they need to start planning early.

[TampaFl]

It appears, though this may be just a wooble, that Frances has turned and is now moving almost due west This would increase the threat to the Islands 7 P.R. and also continue to increase the posible threat to Florida . Thoughts and coments welcomed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Robert

[Aquawind]

Yeah we noticed last night it was definatley not 300 degree motion throughout the night..I will be a very close call for the Islands..especially if it grows in size..

[Nimbus]

Looks like the first southwesterly wobble that Frances has made? Nobody guaranteed she would stop turning left at at 275. The models will be changing soon since as Mike Watkins explained they had been initialized at 300.

This mornings water vapor imagery shows a kink in the zonal flow east of Japan. I watched the kink roll east with my left eye and the ridge Frances is embedded in pushing west with my right. Got cross eyed over west Texas. I'm guessing the models that are showing recurve east of the gulf are basing the recurve on Climo data.

[TampaFl]

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

This track is very disturbing. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[snowflake]

GFS takes Frances over S FL and into the GOM heading towards Mobile on Day 8/9 ... check it out..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _fpc.shtml

The Hurricane Alley website showed the long range models taking Frances towards Mississippi or Alabama.

[Lowpressure]

Mike NWS D.C discusses a short wave trapped in the Ohio valley moving into our area late in the forecast period. I know Frances is almost due west for know. I still feel there are a few players here that will bend her to the north as she is in or near the Bahamas. I know models have S.Fla with a bullseye on it. I think we will see them trend west, but develop a northward bend towards the end of the forecast period. I feel she will make landfall, but further north than current models. Comments welcome.

[tropicstorm]

Just tuned into the 8 am TWC Tropical Update - no question that their forecast track has Frances a bit more to the east right now. It was the first mention this morning by Steve Lyons that this could be an interest for "south / central" Florida. It is also evident that their forecast cone of uncertainty has shifted more east now to central Bahamas & central Florida. Does this indicate a trend that might continue for an eventual Carolina event?

[jlauderdal]

Just tuned into the 8 am TWC Tropical Update - no question that their forecast track has Frances a bit more to the east right now. It was the first mention this morning by Steve Lyons that this could be an interest for "south / central" Florida. It is also evident that their forecast cone of uncertainty has shifted more east now to central Bahamas & central Florida. Does this indicate a trend that might continue for an eventual Carolina event?

if it is moving east than why would be a bigger threat for south florida?

[mf_dolphin]

I think the point was that the track was moving further north and east. Now that Gaston has decided to move inland we'll get a better idea of the ridge rebuilding behind him a little sooner.

[Windsong]

Huh? I must be more tired than I thought.....

[caneman]

I think the point was that the track was moving further north and east. Now that Gaston has decided to move inland we'll get a better idea of the ridge rebuilding behind him a little sooner.

In addition, the past 3 hours the system has went due West if not a tad South. IT's looking to me that Florida is more and more under the gun.

[tropicstorm]

This was the first mention about central Florida - as opposed to more of a Florida Straits / south Florida reference yesterday. Also, projected forecast cone has definitely shifted more right. Gaston might be weakening this Atlantic ridge more than 1st expected.

[caneman]

This was the first mention about central Florida - as opposed to more of a Florida Straits / south Florida reference yesterday. Also, projected forecast cone has definitely shifted more right. Gaston might be weakening this Atlantic ridge more than 1st expected.

Yeah, but when you have the majority of the reliable models consistently pointing at South Florida, you have to wonder. I believe NHC is splitting the difference with a couple of the outliers who have until this point, not been reliable or accurate.

[Brent]

To be honest, I don't know what the heck the NHC is doing. Maybe they are doing this to avoid panic? The average track error for Day 5 is close to 300 miles. Are they not going to point it at Miami since they are in Miami?

[quickychick]

Here on the MS Coast local WLOX weather lady showed map with Hurricane Frances trac with Florida almost not even in the picture and said "Some good news, looks like Frances will head back off to the north".

MSRobi911, are you talking about Carrie? I worry about her sometimes Over here the cable company pulls in New Orleans and Mobile channels and I trust and listen to their talking heads much more than WLOX's.