ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Where is recon going ?

[JaxGator]

NASA model still seems to keep it worst case scenario, don't know how reliable it is though. People around this board said that it forecasted Sandy correctly.

http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_wx.cgi?region=tropatl&dtg=2016092900&prod=6precs&model=fp&level=sfc&tau=000&&region_old=&dtg_old=2016092900&prod_old=&model_old=ncepgfs&level_old=&tau_old=000&&loop=1

EDIT: DO NOT click on it directly, copy and paste into your browser.

Thank you. Don't know much about its history but it's ominous that it and UKMET show a similar set-up. Don't want that monster coming anywhere near here.

Tried copy/pasting NASA site but still not working. Anyone have a working link?

Gatorcane posted it on the model thread a page or so ago.

[chaser1]

Tried copy/pasting NASA site but still not working. Anyone have a working link?

I edited the post to show the entire link. It doesn't like the referrer so even if you click all you have to do is press return up in the address bar and it will load. Silly restriction.

Yep, got it. Thanks

[AutoPenalti]

Tried copy/pasting NASA site but still not working. Anyone have a working link?

I edited the post to show the entire link. It doesn't like the referrer so even if you click all you have to do is press return up in the address bar and it will load. Silly restriction.

Thank you for the fix!

[tarheelprogrammer]

Anyone have a number for the chances the US has to go major hurricane free for 11 years. I am thinking it is close to zero. That is some "luck". We are technically not out of the woods yet but feeling better here in NC.

[OntarioEggplant]

Hmmm recon may be going for a N-S pass if they've detected higher winds on the north side... Which is very possible.

[Yellow Evan]

30/1145 UTC 13.8N 70.5W T5.0/5.0 MATTHEW -- Atlantic

[BobHarlem]

Recon's already found it at the 13.7N position, which is what the forecast was for 5AM tomorrow, (5PM was supposed to be 13.8N) This seems further south than forecast.

[chaser1]

Latest from Dr Knabb:
https://www.periscope.tv/NWSNHC/1MnGnnpejjjGO

Lots of uncertainty.

I don't believe I heard anything unique or different from Dr. Knabb that hasn't been already communicated through prior Cyclone Discussions. Likely a product for those who might be less in tune to tropical cyclones or those who commonly visit this site.

[tolakram]

Anyone have a number for the chances the US has to go major hurricane free for 11 years. I am thinking it is close to zero. That is some "luck". We are technically not out of the woods yet but feeling better here in NC.

I don't agree with the 11 year streak due to Ike. It's a man made statistic that is fairly meaningless, especially since Ike missed it by a few MPH. Streaks are streaks, and this one will end at some point, but hopefully not anytime soon. What else could it be besides luck?

[Aric Dunn]

Recon's already found it at the 13.7N position, which is what the forecast was for 5AM tomorrow, (5PM was supposed to be 13.8N) This seems further south than forecast.

yeah it been riding slightly south and a little faster than the NHC 5am track.

[chaser1]

Recon's already found it at the 13.7N position, which is what the forecast was for 5AM tomorrow, (5PM was supposed to be 13.8N) This seems further south than forecast.

yeah it been riding slightly south and a little faster than the NHC 5am track.

If this continues for the rest of the day, than there may be downstream implications impacting westward track adjustments. I'd anticipate those "nudges" to be very small but a small change in westward longitude reached as well as a small change to later NW or NNW trajectory (as opposed to due north) could cause a very meaningful westward shift of the cone.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like an eye is about to start clearly out soon.

[otterlyspicey]

Recon's already found it at the 13.7N position, which is what the forecast was for 5AM tomorrow, (5PM was supposed to be 13.8N) This seems further south than forecast.

yeah it been riding slightly south and a little faster than the NHC 5am track.

If this continues for the rest of the day, than there may be downstream implications impacting westward track adjustments. I'd anticipate those "nudges" to be very small but a small change in westward longitude reached as well as a small change to later NW or NNW trajectory (as opposed to due north) could cause a very meaningful westward shift of the cone.

You wouldn't think a more southerly track, taking away slightly from it's more westward forecast would lead to an overall more easterly path once it's picked up to go north since it traded westward movement for southerly?

[gatorcane]

Recon's already found it at the 13.7N position, which is what the forecast was for 5AM tomorrow, (5PM was supposed to be 13.8N) This seems further south than forecast.

yeah it been riding slightly south and a little faster than the NHC 5am track.

If this continues for the rest of the day, than there may be downstream implications impacting westward track adjustments. I'd anticipate those "nudges" to be very small but a small change in westward longitude reached as well as a small change to later NW or NNW trajectory (as opposed to due north) could cause a very meaningful westward shift of the cone.

But even if it ends up more west down in the Caribbean, wouldn't it just mean more of a sharp NNE recurve passing South Florida? I think the big question is really does it take longer to get out of the Southern Caribbean than models like the GFS/NAVGEM/CMC show. Those models show a quick extraction while the ECMWF and UKMET are a little slower. If it takes longer, a ridge might be able to build (albeit temporarily) over the SW Atlantic as the upper-low over the Eastern CONUS moves out. Models can sometimes try to extract a TC out of the deep Caribbean (especially SW Caribbean) too quickly.

[OntarioEggplant]

Looks like recon is headed back. Possibly mechanical problems.

[JaxGator]

yeah it been riding slightly south and a little faster than the NHC 5am track.

If this continues for the rest of the day, than there may be downstream implications impacting westward track adjustments. I'd anticipate those "nudges" to be very small but a small change in westward longitude reached as well as a small change to later NW or NNW trajectory (as opposed to due north) could cause a very meaningful westward shift of the cone.

You wouldn't think a more southerly track, taking away slightly from it's more westward forecast would lead to an overall more easterly path once it's picked up to go north since it traded westward movement for southerly?

I think he meant the longer Matthew stays south, it'll take longer to get caught by the trough making the turn more gradual instead of a hard right.

[sponger]

Can any one remember such a deep carribean system getting plucked North like that?

[BobHarlem]

yeah it been riding slightly south and a little faster than the NHC 5am track.

If this continues for the rest of the day, than there may be downstream implications impacting westward track adjustments. I'd anticipate those "nudges" to be very small but a small change in westward longitude reached as well as a small change to later NW or NNW trajectory (as opposed to due north) could cause a very meaningful westward shift of the cone.

You wouldn't think a more southerly track, taking away slightly from it's more westward forecast would lead to an overall more easterly path once it's picked up to go north since it traded westward movement for southerly?

Depends if it slips far enough south to miss the first trough coming up this weekend, also means higher risk for Jamaica... which I think was last hit by Sandy of all things.

[NotoSans]

NHC upgrades it to a major with an initial intensity of 100 kt.