ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[O Town]

Surge on the W coast, Blind Pass

Oh no! Castaway Cottages... My favorite place to go in Sanibel is Blind Pass, hope it doesn’t wash away too much of the new beach, or cause too much damage to the cottages. Crazy it’s up that high. Should be good shelling come this weekend.

[superfly]

This is the area of the GOM where Katrina bombed.

[NDG]

109 kt fl level winds in the SE quadrant.

203600 2547N 08609W 6966 02917 9786 +094 +048 219107 109 084 006 00

[cycloneye]

958 mbs.

[hurricaneCW]

Cat 2 winds in the SE quadrant, Cat 3 winds almost certain in the strongest NE quadrant where the strongest convective bursts are now ongoing.

[supercane4867]

Watching that explosive overshooting top overtaking the CDO

[caneman]

Surge on the W. coast of Florida:

https://twitter.com/EdKrassen/status/1049713047709863936

https://twitter.com/SuzanneSF/status/1049749451219316738

https://twitter.com/BrookeSilverang/status/1049757721250226176

Incredible that tides are so high in SW when winds have actually being blowing parallel to the coast if not offshore.

It's coupled with us having astronomical high tides. Not a good situation. I'm here in Tampa Bay area. We're sure to have areas hit hard at high tide tomorrow and especially Pasco, Hernando and Citrus. We always get the worse once it gets North of us.

[DestinHurricane]

Anybody have any links for chasers or webcams that will be in the path of the storm ?

This is in Miramar beach https://www.sandestin.com/sandestin-webcams and I will probably do a live stream.

[KWT]

Extrapolated pressure from center pass: 957.7 mb
Given the recent low bias, the actual pressure is likely around 960 mb.

So a drop of around 6-7mbs in a little under 4hrs, so strengthening at a decent clip now...

[floridasun78]

Surge on the W. coast of Florida:

https://twitter.com/EdKrassen/status/1049713047709863936

https://twitter.com/SuzanneSF/status/1049749451219316738

https://twitter.com/BrookeSilverang/status/1049757721250226176

Incredible that tides are so high in SW when winds have actually being blowing parallel to the coast if not offshore.

i been watching beach cam wave already taking over beach storm still day alway

[Airboy]

Will be a bad flood/surge event if they have problems already, and wind of cource.

[meriland29]

109 kt fl level winds in the SE quadrant.

203600 2547N 08609W 6966 02917 9786 +094 +048 219107 109 084 006 00

Wow...

[KWT]

Cat 2 winds in the SE quadrant, Cat 3 winds almost certain in the strongest NE quadrant where the strongest convective bursts are now ongoing.

Given the depth of convection I think thosesurface estimates are running low. An earlier dropsonde was almost 1:1 on FL winds and surface wind.

[supercane4867]

Fresh microwave pass came out minutes ago shows the eyewall is now fully closed and very solid. It was open to the W this morning.

[MGC]

Yikes, closed eyewall . Next watch to see if the eye starts to contract....could be very bad news....MGC

[Hurricane Andrew]

Fresh microwave pass came out minutes ago shows the eyewall is now fully closed and very solid. It was open to the W this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/UJGE2Mv.jpg

Looks open or stretched to the E? Can't quite tell due to the pass cutoff.

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't be surprised if we have a category 4 by late this evening. The question is - how high does it go?

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/1049761405531017216

[supercane4867]

Fresh microwave pass came out minutes ago shows the eyewall is now fully closed and very solid. It was open to the W this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/UJGE2Mv.jpg

Looks open or stretched to the E? Can't quite tell due to the pass cutoff.

The edge of the pass is always distorted so I won't make any assumptions base on it.

[Gums]

Salute!

@ Crazy, and maybe others,

The "live oak/spanish oaks" live to be hundreds of years old, so they don't go down willi nilly. Ask the county ag agent and you are likely seeing laural oaks, which last 60 or 70 years normally. See:

https://www.hunker.com/13428946/live-oa ... l-oak-tree

I thot all "oaks" had big, deep tap roots until I saw the laurel oaks uprooted here after storms. Like the short leaf pines, they uproot very easily because they have no tap root like the long leaf pines. So I watched two of my 70 footers go down in the first hour or two of Opal once we got to that "howl" you get once wind gets up to 70 mph or so. And do not rule out the mini-tornadoes in these storms, even small ones. Most folks call them vortexes, and you can hear them coming and feel your ears pop if they pass right over. So I had a big shortleaf come thru the roof from one of those during Erin ( two months before Opal) The long leaf suckers live up to 500 years, so durin Opal I wtched the wimpy ones go down and the two or three long leaf gorillas just grunted, heh heh.,

Secret is to thin out your pines, retaining the longleaf if you have any. My cousin in Waveland MS cut down all his within falling distance of his place and had a nice lawn and some small gardens. So no damage after Katrina, and he was a mile and a half from the beach, 29 or 30 feet msl.

Gums sends...