Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Models continue to show plenty of moisture in April 7-8 for some Islands of the Leewards,Vi and PR but nothing about tropical development.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST WED MAR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL QUICKLY ERODE TODAY AS TROF MOVES
FROM THE WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A SECOND
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ONCE
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER EAST. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO A SURGE ON TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 5 AM AST...MAX RAINFALL RANGED BETWEEN
0.10-0.35 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PR.
EXPECT THIS SURGE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN
THE USVI AND EAST/SOUTHERN PR. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROF AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MAINLAND PR.

AS SHORT WAVE TROF PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
USVI/EASTERN PR IS EXPECTED EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR/WEST SECTIONS OF PR
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING BEST MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. HOWEVER...MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE ISLANDS DURING THIS PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO BKN CLD LYRS AT FL025 WITH THE PASSING SHRA.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS TIL AT LEAST 30/14Z. MTN
TOP OBSCR W/PASSING SHRA OVR ERN PR. AFTERNOON SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA
LIKELY NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z-21Z. SFC WND FM E 10-20 KTS
WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT WITH SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND PASSAGES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TRADE
WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUE ACROSS PR AND THE USVI...EXCEPT ACROSS THE BEACHES
OF WESTERN PR WHERE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 88 74 / 50 30 30 30
STT 85 74 84 75 / 60 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
203 PM AST WED MAR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS... TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE WEST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A SECOND TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER EAST. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS AFFECTED THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
LOCAL AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INDUCE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
WILL LINGER CLOSE TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.THEREFORE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME. A SECOND
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A RELATIVELY WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WHEN A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
EXPECTED. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. IN THE LONG
TERM... GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION MID NEXT WEEK...INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.
SCT TO BKN CLD WITH BRIEF OVC BTWN FL025/FL040 ARE EXPECTED OVER
PR/USVI UNTIL AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE TSRA WERE REMOVED FROM THE
FCST...HOWEVER SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. AFT 30/23Z...
BRIEF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PR/THE USVI/EN ROUTE FROM THE
LESSER ANTILLES...SOME OF THEM COULD MOVE OVER TIST/TISX/TJSJ AND
TNCM/TKPK. SFC WND FM E-ESE 10-20 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
WITH SHRA...THEN AT 5-15 KT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 88 74 87 / 30 30 30 40
STT 74 84 75 84 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Plenty of moisture will bring to some islands in the Leewards,VI and PR a frontal trough by April 7 thru the 8th but nothing to worry about in terms of tropical development.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A SECOND WEAKER TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN DURING THE WEEKEND. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PASSING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS PERSISTED
OVER THE WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING SECTIONS OF ST. CROIX
AND THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PR. UNDER A
SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING WIND FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TODAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DUE TO
THE TROF ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NW QUADRANT OF PR.

AT LEAST THRU SATURDAY...TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS
A SECOND TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MERGE/REINFORCES
THE DEEPER TROF. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ON FRIDAY. AS THIS SCENARIO HOLDS
FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE USVI/EASTERN PR ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER BOTH ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE POSSIBLE
THRU THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST LATE SATURDAY...PROMOTING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR INTO THE
REGION AND RETURNING TO A TRADE WIND SHOWER PATTERN THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...-SHRA IN THE TRADE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE LEEWARD
AND USVI TERMINALS THE REST OF THE MORNING. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST PR THIS AFTERNOON...IMPACTING
MAINLY THE FLYING AREA NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 17-21Z. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FM THE ESE AT 10-20 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25 KT
AT TIMES.


&&

.MARINE...SHORT PERIOD DOMINANT WAVES BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET AND
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PR AND THE
USVI...EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN COASTLINE OF PR WHERE THERE IS A
LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 75 / 40 30 40 30
STT 84 74 84 75 / 20 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
116 PM AST THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECOND WEAKER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN DURING
THE WEEKEND. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER
MOST OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE
BETWEEN THREE QUARTER TO ONE INCH IN LOCALIZED AREAS. LOCAL AREA
CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS
BEEN AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FOLLOW
IT BY A WEAKER TROUGH EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
BOTH FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. NO CHANGES IN
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL AT LEAST MID NEXT
WEEK...WHEN COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.
SCT TO BKN CLD WITH BRIEF OVC BTWN FL025/FL050 ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE TAF SITES AT LEAST UNTIL THIS EVENING. ISOLD TSRA REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR TJMZ/TJBQ BTWN 31/17Z-21Z. AFT 31/23Z...
BRIEF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PR/THE USVI/EN ROUTE FROM
THE LESSER ANTILLES...SOME OF THEM COULD MOVE OVER
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK. SFC WND FM E-ESE 10-20 KTS WITH OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT WITH SHRA...THEN AT 4-11 KT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 75 89 / 30 40 30 30
STT 74 84 75 84 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010830
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHING THE
NORTHWEST SECTOR OF THE FORECAST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
HAS COMPLETELY ERODED THE CAP INVERSION ALLOWING FOR DEEP MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...THEN CROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO
BUILD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLD AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE WILL LOOSEN IT HOLD
AND TRADE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE POOLING OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
EXPECT CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING IN ISOLATED SPOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO
WHERE FORCING WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED.

BY LATE SATURDAY AND ON SUNDAY...LESSER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD AND ALLOW FOR
EASTERLY TRADES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
RESPECTIVELY. BY THEN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IS SO FAR FORECAST
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY EROSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS A POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA...TODAY. VCSH LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT TJBQ AND TJMZ. CIGS AT FL040 OR SO OVER TJSJ...TISX...TISX...
TNCM AND TKPK WITH CIGS AT AROUND FL070 ELSEWHERE. WINDS FROM THE
EAST AT 10 TO 15KT...GUSTY NEAR SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. AFTER
01/12Z...VCSH LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS EXCEPT TJMZ AND
TJBQ...THEN AFTER 01/16Z...SHRA/TSRA MOVES WEST...AFFECTING TJMZ AND
TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE OFFSHORE BUOY SUGGEST
SEAS NOW DOWN TO NEAR 7 FEET AND NEAR SHORES SEAS AT 6 FEET OR
BELOW. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION TODAY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS
AND POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 88 75 / 50 30 30 20
STT 83 76 83 76 / 40 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
202 PM AST FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION DURING THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE REGION AS THIS TROUGH ERODED THE CAP
INVERSION THAT WAS PRESENT DURING THE PAST DAYS. AS THIS TROUGH
EXIT THE REGION AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ISLAND BY
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE CLOUDY SKIES...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...MINOR FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH HAIL ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF THE
LINGERING MOISTURE...THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...PORTIONS OF THE
U.S.V.I. AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS
OF PR/USVI.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

BY LATE SATURDAY AND ON SUNDAY...LESSER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD AND ALLOW FOR
EASTERLY TRADES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
RESPECTIVELY. BY THEN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IS SO FAR FORECAST
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY EROSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS A POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PR AND USVI TERMINALS AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CONTINUE. TSRA POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR THE VICINITY OF TIST/TISX/TJMZ/TJBQ. ESE WINDS AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS EXPECTED BUT HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WX CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH PASSING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT
ISX/JSJ AND LEEWARD TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FEET WITH EASTERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 88 / 40 40 20 20
STT 76 85 76 86 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST SAT APR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HOLD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...THEN ERODE AND FLATTEN
BY WEDNESDAY AS A POLAR TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT ENTERING AND
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IN TURN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST
OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE ISLANDS TO REMAIN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE CAP
INVERSION AND CONSEQUENTLY LEAD TO DIMINISHING MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND POOLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND EACH
DAY TO ALLOW LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME
AREAS BUT MAINLY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL
AS THE NORTH AND EACH SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL RECEIVE THEIR SHARE OF OCCASIONAL
PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LESSER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS TODAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

BY WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE UPPER
RIDGE IS TO ERODE ALONG WITH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALLOWING FOR
MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN. SO FAR THE OVERALL PATTERN AND MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MUCH WETTER PATTERN WITH FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK....AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THIS MORNING WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST...TISX...TJSJ AND TJPS UNTIL
ABOUT 02/15Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT ABOUT 5-10KT DURING
EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO ABOUT 15KT AFTER 02/13Z WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. POSSIBLE CONVECTION AFTER 02/16Z ACROSS
WESTERN PR COULD CAUSE TS NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND
DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 76 / 30 20 20 10
STT 84 76 85 76 / 30 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
210 PM AST SAT APR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION. AS THIS TROUGH EXIST THE
REGION...A RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ALOFT BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AND
FLATTEN AS A POLAR TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE SURFACE AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY. THEN IT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH PASSING SHOWERS
PREVAILED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION BETWEEN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AND A THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH. EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER THE INTERIOR...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THEREFORE...ISOLATED MINOR AND
URBAN FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE TYPICAL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SECTIONS...FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

BY MID WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MUCH WETTER
PATTERN WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS TO
SUPPORT ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT JBQ/JMZ THROUGH 02/22Z. AFT
02/22Z...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE AT
LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS ESE AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS TILL 02/23Z...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND
DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THE REST OF TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FT AND WINDS AROUND 18 KT ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 76 88 / 30 30 10 10
STT 75 85 76 85 / 30 30 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST SUN APR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD AND HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE RIDGE
IS TO THEN ERODE/FLATTEN BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
POLAR TROUGH...WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LEADING TO DIMINISHING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
SOME WILL BRIEFLY BRUSH THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF SOME ISLANDS...
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RELOCATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE CAP INVERSION AND CONSEQUENTLY
A DIMINISHING OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE EACH DAY
TO ALLOW LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ERODE ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL
ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INITIALIZING FAIRLY WELL IN
RECENT DAYS. LONG TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT
WETTER PATTERN WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SUPPORTING
ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND APPROACH THE AREA. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA WITH ONLY VCSH ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND TIST...
TISX...TJSJ AND TJPS TAF SITES UNTIL 03/15Z. AFT 03/17Z SHRA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PR WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS SPREADING ACROSS TJMZ AND NEAR TJBQ. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE E TO ESE AT 5 TO 10 KT UNTIL 03/14Z THEN
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT...WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL BEACHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR
PUERTO RICO ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 76 / 10 10 10 20
STT 86 76 86 76 / 10 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
157 PM AST SUN APR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE/FLATTEN LATE MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND THE
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH
A FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE USVI AND THE EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF
PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS WERE ALSO
OBSERVED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS TILL
SUNSET. WINDS WERE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH AND COASTAL
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
UNDER RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS. THE LIGHT
TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO ESTABLISH
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEA BREEZES COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE
USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE. THEREFORE ON TUESDAY...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS W
AND NW PUERTO RICO. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
NORTHERN SLOPES.

AS THE RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
AWAY ON THURSDAY...LOCAL ISLANDS WILL RETURN TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS
AND LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE
BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJBQ/TJMZ IN
SHRA TILL 03/22Z. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS CAN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 23 KT. AFTER 03/22Z...A DRY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
SHRA ACTIVITY. SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 15 KT WITH
HIGHER GUST IN/NEAR SHRA...DECREASING AT 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...THE COASTAL BUOY NETWORK IS INDICATING SEAS UP TO 5 FT
AND WINDS BELOW 18 KT. MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 76 88 / 20 20 20 30
STT 76 86 76 87 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
356 AM AST MON APR 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO ERODE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON
THURSDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THESE FEATURES WILL INDUCE AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOSTLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AN EARLY
THIS MORNING. NOT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREA. SMALL
AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN
AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THEN AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INDUCE MORE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FCST AREA EXCEPT BTWN
04/16-24Z OVR WRN PR. CONVECTION DVLPG WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LCLY HVY SHRA. STREAMERS WILL BEGIN TO FORM IN
ESE FLOW FROM USVI BY 04/12Z AND MAY PERSIST WITH BREAKS THRU 04/22Z.
SFC WINDS ESE 5 TO 10 KT TIL 04/14Z THEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH LAND/SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS. WINDS ABV FL200 NLY UP TO 40 KT...BCMG WLY BTWN
04/12-05/00Z AND DCRSG TO NO MORE THAN 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET
WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6 ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...2-4 FEET
NEARSHORE. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NORTH AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS OF PR...SOUTH COAST OF VIEQUES AND THE NORTH...
EAST...AND SOUTH EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 75 / 20 20 40 20
STT 86 75 85 76 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
152 PM AST MON APR 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY ERODE/FLATTEN THROUGH TUESDAY...
AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND THE SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY TO
VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE USVI
AND THE EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNING.
LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WEST PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE EAST SOUTHEAST
AT AROUND 15 MPH AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
UNDER RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS. THE LIGHT
TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO ESTABLISH.
THIS COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WEST AND NORTH PUERTO RICO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE USVI AND THE EAST COASTAL AREAS...
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

AS THE RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO POOL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IS LIMITED...
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.
A RESULT...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE CORDILLERA. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY ON THURSDAY...
LOCAL ISLANDS WILL RETURN TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREA...WITH LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO
RICO THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FT AND WINDS BELOW 18 KT. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE CHOP WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 89 76 87 / 30 30 20 40
STT 76 85 76 85 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST TUE APR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO ERODE TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL
INDUCE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME. THIS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TODAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INDUCE MORE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE FCST PRD. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA WITH MOST
TOPS AROUND FL150...SCT OCNL BKN CLD LYRS FL025...FL050... FL090
ACROSS FLYING AREA AND BTW ISLANDS TIL 05/14Z. SHRA W/PSBL ISOLD
TSRA LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVR INTERIOR AND N OF THE CTRL MTN RANGE OF
PR BETWEEN 05/17-22Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PR TERMINALS...AS WELL AS MTN TOP OBSCR. PREVIOUS TJSJ
05/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SUGGESTS E-SE WND AT 5-15 KNOTS BLO
FL200...BCM FM W AND INCR W/HT ABV.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET
WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6 ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...2-4 FEET
NEARSHORE. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NORTH AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS OF PR...SOUTH COAST OF VIEQUES AND THE NORTH...
EAST...AND SOUTH EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 87 76 / 40 20 20 40
STT 85 76 84 76 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
201 PM AST TUE APR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST OF USA WILL
AMPLIFY AS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH
WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO DEEPEN AT LOW-MID LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PEAK OVER THE LOCAL REGION. ALTHOUGH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...TYPICAL
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH PR AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINES WITH LOCAL EFFECTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK STEERING FLOW AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAVE
COMBINED TO INDUCE SEA BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SLOPES OF PR. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL SUNSET. FOR TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER PR AND USVI.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE MAINLY NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITHOUT CAUSING
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MAY DRIFT OVER PR AND USVI THROUGH THURSDAY...PRODUCING
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS INDUCED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT.
HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE AFTERNOON
STORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK...SEA/LAND BREEZES WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION. THEREFORE...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
USVI AND EASTERN PR FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR AND NORTH PR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS STILL POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JMZ
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFT 05/22Z...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES UNDER
ESE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFT 06/16Z
OVER THE CORDILLERA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 76 90 / 20 20 40 40
STT 76 84 76 84 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST WED APR 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS... A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN AIR FLOW WILL BECOME ALMOST COMLETELY ZONAL AS
A JET STREAM DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECOND TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
HISPANIOLA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE IS
SEEN THURSDAY AND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THEN NORTHEAST ALLOWING MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS
TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND SHOWERS INCREASE
GRADUALLY AFTER FRIDAY AND PEAK ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY...FORMED
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE CLUSTERS WERE MOVING
VERY SLOWLY AS THE COLL AREA BETWEEN THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE ARE
NEAR BY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THAT THE EASTERN END OF CULEBRA
RECEIVED SOME RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM AST THIS MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR LAND DISSIPATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND LITTLE MORE IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE MORNING HEATING
BEGINS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SPOTTY DUE TO THE 2.5 DEGREE INVERSION
AT THE BASE OF A VERY DRY LAYER PERSISTING OVER THE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER THAT TAPERS OFF AROUND 7500 FEET. GOOD HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION...BUT MOST
OF THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RISE VERY FAR INTO THE VERY DRY
AIR...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ALTHOUGH
THE CAP ERODES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY...THE UPPER PORTION OF
THE LOWER LAYER`S MOISTURE DROPS CONSIDERABLY SUCH THAT BY
THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE AT 850 MB WILL BE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH IT RECOUPS SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE THEN SLOWLY RECOVERS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS THE SHEARLINE MOVES EAST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL GAIN A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD COOL THE NORTHERN COAST AND ALLOW
THE SEA BREEZE TO BEGIN EARLIER. THE GFS MOS MAY BE TOO WARM
TODAY AND HAVE HELD BACK ON THE HIGHS ON THE NORTH COAST FOR THIS
REASON. HOWEVER WINDS APPEAR TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
THURSDAY AND UPPER 80S AND AN OCCASIONAL 90 SEEM POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WHEN MOISTURE PEAKS ON
TUESDAY AND A SHEARLINE PUSHES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PRD. MOSTLY SCT CLDS
FL025...FL060...W/ISOLD SHRA EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS TIL 06/14Z. XPCT
SHRA AND PSBL ISOLD TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE CTRL AND WRN MTN
RANGE OF PR BTW 06/18-16/22Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCRG CLDS AND
BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCURATONS WITH MVFR CONDS IN CIG/VIS...IMPACTING
MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ AND VCNTY OF TJSJ WHERE BRIEF ISOLD AFTN SHRA
PSBL. WINDS BLO FL150 LGT/VRB... BCMG FM SW-W AND INCR W/HT ABV.
SFC WND INCR TO AROUND 10-15 KTS FM THE E-SE AFTER 06/14Z EXCEPT
FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ACROSS THE NRN/WRN PR TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT OR BELOW 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW
OVER ALL BUT THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS. ON THURSDAY A 3 TO 4 FOOT
NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED BY THE WAVE WATCH AT THE OUTER BUOY
AND IT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE LOCAL OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TO BNE HIGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE SATURDAY. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SWELL WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 88 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 84 76 84 76 / 20 40 40 20

[HurricaneFan]

So the Front that was forecasted to bring plenty of rain for the NE CarIbbean has backed off considerably?

[cycloneye]

So the Front that was forecasted to bring plenty of rain for the NE CarIbbean has backed off considerably?

Not going to move thru.Only local effects will occur.Next week a trough will arrive so let's see how thing evolve by then.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
215 PM AST WED APR 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND SUBSIDENCE AIR WILL DOMINATE
THE MID LEVELS THE REST OF THE WEEK...LIMITING THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
STILL EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN ISOLATED SPOTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND WEST PR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK STEERING FLOW AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
TO INDUCE SEA BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WEST PR. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND LIKELY
PERSIST UNTIL SUNSET. FOR TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ACROSS PR AND USVI.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO HISPANOLA
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITHOUT CAUSING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK...SEA/LAND BREEZES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...A GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TYPICAL LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF USVI AND EASTERN PR FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PR CAN NOT RULED OUT.

OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WETTER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS PR THIS AFTERNOON
COULD AFFECT THE VICINITY OF TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJPS. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE EAST TO ESE AR AROUND 10 KT BUT WITH A STRONG SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN PR. ISOLD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT COULD CAUSE BRIEF VCSH ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY SWELL OF 3-4
FEET WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH BETWEEN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A BIGGER SWELL IS FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 75 90 / 30 30 20 20
STT 76 84 76 86 / 40 40 20 20